【Hong Kong Dollar Fixed Deposit】Hong Kong dollar 1-year fixed deposit with a maximum interest rate of 2.7%, earning 2.7 million HKD. East Asia Digital Bank competes against the market to fight for long-term funds.

			▲ Two Days into April: 8 Hong Kong Banks Cut Time Deposit Rates to Start the Month

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Just as April’s first week got underway, only four banks overwhelmingly raised (which is three more than the three from the previous week) their Hong Kong dollar fixed deposit interest rates, including on Thursday (April 2) Fusion Bank and AirStar Bank, which bucked the trend by increasing their 1-year rates, with the new rates all landing at 2.7%.

In contrast, this week saw a total of five institutions (down from six the previous week) with rate cuts and no increases—for example, looking only at Thursday: a total of six banks chased the “rate-cut express” (BOC Hong Kong added on Wednesday then cut on Thursday; BOC International and DaZhong Bank cut rates for two straight days; CCB Asia reduced across the board; Fubon and Chuang Hing also cut).

Although ahead of the long holiday interbank rates moved broadly higher, over these two days many Hong Kong banks still cut after having raised. Looking ahead to the next phase, with only three trading days next week, experts expect the interest-rate-cut wave to continue. Since Trump’s military action against Iran still needs another two to three weeks, the market expects the Middle East may not reach a ceasefire until May. Meanwhile, there are fears that the industry’s plans for business expansion may be forced into a wait-and-see posture. With high rates attracting deposits but too few lending outlets, only a few “number banks” are resorting to the “people shrink, I hustle” strategy to抢 higher-term yields.

Summing up the week, a total of 14 Hong Kong banks adjusted their fixed deposit rates: 5 cut (CCB Asia—two consecutive cuts for one week, Fubon, Guotai?you? (Collective?—as listed), Chuang Hing, and 汇立), while 3 increased (SBC, Hang Seng?—as listed, and Fusion). Another 6 both increased and then cut (AirStar resumed rate increases on Thursday; ICBC, Dazhong?—as listed, BOC?—as listed, Jais?—as listed, and BOC?—as listed increased and then cut again).

CCB Asia: 5.88% + 6.88% ultra-high interest—“Take turns on the same stage”

This week only had four trading days, but the high-yield leaderboard for five deposit tenors was completely reshuffled: 1 month, 4 months, 1 year, 18 months, and 24 months—all because Ping An Digital Bank’s 1-month rate of 15 per mille, and DaXin’s 1-year, 18-month, and 24-month rates of 2.8% all matured at the end of March and were not renewed. As for 4 months: based on Fubon lowering the 4-month rate by 0.1 per mille to 2.35% on Thursday, it lost the “top spot” and could not beat Standard Chartered’s 2.4%.

If measured by the 1-year term, Fusion and AirStar had their rates pushed up against the tide before the long holiday to 2.7%, barely edging out Ping An Digital Bank’s 2.65% to reclaim the top of the list—while risk-averse customers park one million for a “safe” 27k interest at the same time.

• Review the battle of big-vs-small bank interest-rate kings:
• 7 days highest: Fusion 21 per mille (new customers only, just extended to end of May)
• 14 days: Fusion 25 per mille (new customers)
• 1 month: HSBC 10 per mille (stock incentive plan)
• 2 months: Nanshang 2.15 per mille
• 3 months: CCB Asia 6.88 per mille (only for the first 20% of deposits), with another 5.88 per mille option (just extended to June 30)
• 4 months: Standard Chartered 2.4 per mille (replacing Fubon for the top position)
• 5 months: Nanshang 2.3 per mille
• 6 months: Ping An Digital Bank (formerly known as PAObank) 2.65 per mille
• 7 months: DaZhong Finance 2.125 per mille
• 8 months: WeLaB 2.35 per mille (cut 0.05 per mille on Thursday)
• 9 months: AirStar 2.6 per mille (increased 0.05 per mille on Thursday)
• 1 year: Fusion and AirStar 2.7 per mille
• 18 months: Fusion 2.7 per mille
• 2 years: WeLaB 2.25 per mille
• 36 months: Mox 2.3 per mille
• 48 months: Mox 2.3 per mille

Citi expert says: U.S. inflation in Q2 to be 3.6% ; Brent crude above $120

After quarter-end and month-end, interbank rates rebounded sharply on Wednesday, but before the long holiday, on Thursday the entire curve moved down and then turned broadly higher again: overnight rates switched from falling to rising at 2.02 per mille; the 1-month interbank rate ended a three-day streak of declines, printing 1.98 per mille. Total balances in the banking system edged up slightly to HK$53.8 billion; the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate was 7.8352 to 7.8386. The U.S. dollar kept sliding through the $100 mark, at 99.956.

The escalation of the war between Iran and Israel raised concerns: in the early hours of Thursday, Trump said he would still launch a fierce attack on Iran. His remarks of “escalating into war rather than seeking a ceasefire” sparked panic in the market. Oil prices surged: Brent futures rose 5% to $106.15; New York crude rose 4% to $104.19.

Citi Bank’s head of investment strategy and asset allocation, Liao Jiahao, said: Brent crude is forecast at $120 for the next three months, but is expected to fall to $80 for 6 to 12 months; New York crude is forecast at $108 for three months, and $74 for 6 to 12 months. The U.S. first-quarter inflation forecast is expected to rise to 3.3%, with the second quarter to 3.6%, but the third quarter and year-end are expected to ease slightly to 3.1%. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is forecast at 103.29 for the next three months, and 100.47 for 6 to 12 months. This year, the Federal Reserve may cut rates by a total of 75 basis points—cutting 25 basis points each in June, July, and September.

Hang Seng: the 7-day 5% offer extended again to the end of June

In addition, measured purely by the four major banks, three note-issuing banks have still held steady for now. It’s just that Hang Seng moved the original end-of-March deadline for the 7-day 5% offer back to the end of June.

• Comparing the four major banks’ promo deposit rates:
• 7 days:
  HSBC 7 per mille (for eligible conversion of new funds only, in-branch or via phone wealth management), 6 per mille (liquidity wealth management offer)
  Standard Chartered 5 per mille (reduced by 2 per mille on February 10)
  Bank of China (Hong Kong) and Hang Seng 5 per mille
• 1 month:
  HSBC 10 per mille (stock incentive plan), 3 per mille (for converting new funds)
  Hang Seng 3 per mille (launched on Jan 2; threshold HK$1 million), 2.5 per mille (threshold HK$10k)
  Bank of China 2 per mille
• 3 months:
  HSBC 2.2 per mille (cut 0.2 per mille on March 2)
  Standard Chartered 2.1 per mille (cut 0.1 per mille on March 2)
  Bank of China 2.1 per mille (cut 0.3 per mille on February 4)
  Hang Seng 2 per mille (cut 0.2 per mille on March 16)
• 6 months:
  HSBC 2 per mille (cut 0.1 per mille on March 2)
  Standard Chartered 1.95 per mille (cut 0.05 per mille on March 2)
  Hang Seng 1.9 per mille (cut 0.2 per mille on February 9)
  Bank of China 1.9 per mille (cut 0.2 per mille on February 4)
• 1 year:
  Standard Chartered 2 per mille (cut 0.2 per mille on February 10)

Fusion rolls out its campaign in full: extend longer-term yields and extend another 21 per mille through end of May

On the other side, this week’s four digital banks (formerly called virtual banks) made moves. Specifically: Fusion launched a full offensive—raising its 1-year rate to take the lead as the “long-term interest-rate king,” while also extending the 7-day 21 per mille bonus offer through the end of May. By contrast, Ping An Digital Bank and WeLaB Bank cut rates; AirStar Bank cut on Wednesday and then added on Thursday.

• Digital bank long vs. short interest-rate kings comparison:

• 7 days: Fusion 21 per mille (new customer exclusive)

• 14 days: Fusion 25 per mille (new customers)

• 2 months: AirStar 1.3 per mille (increased 0.05 per mille on Thursday)

• 3 months: Ping An Digital Bank 2.55 per mille (cut 0.1 per mille on Monday)

• 4 months: AirStar 2.2 per mille (increased 0.1 per mille on Thursday)

• 6 months: Ping An Digital Bank 2.65 per mille (cut 0.1 per mille on Monday)

• 8 months: WeLaB 2.35 per mille (cut 0.05 per mille on Thursday)

• 9 months: AirStar 2.6 per mille

• 1 year: Fusion and AirStar 2.7 per mille, Ping An Digital Bank 2.65 per mille (all-new customers using new funds), Ant 2.5 per mille, WeLaB 2.42 per mille, Ping An Digital Bank 2.4 per mille (existing funds), Mox 2.3 per mille, Zuan?—as listed 2.01 per mille, Li Hui 2 per mille

• 18 months: Fusion 2.7 per mille

• 24 months: WeLaB 2.25 per mille

• 36 months and 48 months: Mox 2.3 per mille

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