Shanghai Mi Ge April 4 Bitcoin Daily Trend and Contract Trading Strategy

Daily Trend Analysis

Price Performance and Technical Patterns

Current Price and Volatility:

As of April 4, 2026, 10:00 AM, Bitcoin is trading at $66,808.30, maintaining slight intraday fluctuations, up 0.58%.

Yesterday (April 3), the closing price was $67,016, with limited volatility, but overall it has not broken through key resistance.

Support and Resistance Levels:

Support: Key short-term support zone between $66,000 and $66,500. If broken, it may test $65,000 or even $64,500 levels.

Resistance: Focus on $67,500 and $68,000 areas. From the candlestick chart, yesterday’s multiple attempts to break above $68,000 were thwarted, indicating strong selling pressure at that level.

Moving Average Signals:

Short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10) remain in a bearish alignment, with the price currently below these short-term averages. This indicates significant short-term market pressure.

Mid- to long-term moving averages (MA50, EMA24/52) also exert resistance, showing continued weakness in the medium term.

Technical Indicator Dynamics:

MACD: Bearish crossover with histogram below zero, indicating medium-term momentum remains bearish. However, the decreasing green bars suggest downward momentum is easing.

RSI: Around 45, moving away from oversold territory but not yet above the bullish advantage zone of 50.

KDJ: Bullish crossover triggered, with the indicator in oversold area, hinting at potential short-term rebound momentum.

Fundamental and Market Sentiment

Bearish Dominance:

Derivatives market data shows that over the past 72 hours, large net outflows of $66.43 million in Bitcoin, with a buy-sell ratio of 1:2.87, indicating a clear bearish sentiment.

Supply and Demand Dynamics:

The current support around $66,000 is relatively strong, with some institutions possibly accumulating here to strengthen long-term positions.

Regarding resistance above, profit-taking pressure above $70,000 persists. Overcoming this supply zone requires higher trading volume and upward momentum[5][7].

On-Chain Activity Weakness:

On-chain indicators such as daily address growth rate and transaction count have declined, indicating increased retail investor caution and a delayed market response to price movements.

Additionally, no significant whale buying activity has been observed from the weekend through Monday. However, disclosures from strategies and new chip demands may influence short-term patterns in the coming days.

II. Contract Trading Strategy Recommendations

Based on current market performance and technical dynamics, the following derivative trading suggestions are provided:

1. Short-term Range Trading: Buy low and sell high within the $60,000—$70,000 range

Bitcoin is currently trading near the bottom of this broad range, with bulls and bears in stalemate, suitable for range-bound trading strategies.

Long Opportunities:

Entry Points: Around $66,000 or $66,500

Stop Loss: $65,500 (to prevent breaking key support)

Target: Short-term target of $67,500, with further profit-taking at $68,000. If a confirmed breakout above $68,000 occurs, consider adding small positions targeting $69,500—$70,000.

Short Opportunities:

Entry Points: $67,800—$68,000 (near resistance zone)

Stop Loss: $68,300 (to prevent breakout)

Target: Down to $66,500; further decline below $66,000 can target $65,000 or lower.

2. Trend Following Strategy

Technical analysis suggests the trend remains weak and corrective, but a rebound cannot be ruled out. Focus on key levels to determine trend direction:

Confirm Reversal for Long Entry: If the price reclaims above $68,000 with increased volume, indicating a rebound, then:

First target: $69,800; a break above can target $71,000.

Stop Loss: Below $67,500.

Follow the trend for short positions: If the price breaks below the key support at $66,000 with increased volume, indicating continued downtrend, then:

Profit target: $64,500; further down to $63,000.

Stop Loss: Above $66,800.

3. Aggressive Short-term Trading

Based on 15-minute candlestick patterns, aggressive traders can choose high-frequency opening positions, quick in-and-out trades. Based on morning signals, suggestions include:

Short-term Long:

If the price stays above $66,000 and approaches $66,800, open small long positions with a stop at $65,700, targeting $67,200.

When KDJ shows a sustained golden cross or RSI breaks above 50, add positions gradually to strengthen gains.

Short-term Short:

If the price drops below $66,000 again, panic may set in, and traders can open small short positions.

Stop Loss at $66,250; target $65,000.

Risk Management Measures

Reduce Leverage: Considering the current sideways market with limited volatility, avoid high leverage. Use 3x to 5x leverage for contracts.

Beware of Fake Breakouts: Especially around the $66,000 support and $68,000 resistance levels, false breakouts pose significant risks for high-leverage traders. Exercise caution and wait for confirmed breakouts.

Monitor Large Trades in Real Time: Keep a close eye on whale buying and selling activity. Large transactions over the past 72 hours indicate significant selling pressure remains.

Strictly Follow Risk Control: Do not be greedy in contract strategies. Once targets are reached, take profits promptly to lock in gains.

Summary and Reminders

Bitcoin is currently oscillating between $66,000 and $68,000, with overall market sentiment cautious and lacking strong bullish momentum. Contract traders should focus on support at $66,000 and resistance at $68,000, adjusting strategies accordingly. Maintain strict risk controls on leverage and position sizes, and adhere to stop-loss and take-profit rules to prevent potential losses.

Before a breakout, the market is expected to continue consolidating, awaiting catalysts such as macro policy shifts or major market signals. Adopt a conservative yet flexible trading approach until a clear trend emerges.