Institution: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year to support the labor market

BlockBeats message, April 4, according to the Oxford Economics Research Institute, the U.S. March employment figures significantly overestimated the strength of the pre-war labor market, because the data also reflected declines in both the labor force and the number of people employed in households. As the Iran war affects real economic activity, employment growth will slow. The war’s impact on inflation is immediate, but the negative effects on consumer spending, business investment, and hiring will become more clearly evident over the next few months.

Oxford Economics Research Institute’s baseline forecast still is that the Federal Reserve will ignore a one-time shock from the rise in oil prices this year and cut interest rates twice to guard against any potential weakening in the labor market. (Jin10)