Strait of Hormuz, breaking news again! Two "throat" shipping lanes may be under pressure simultaneously, pushing oil prices higher.

Focus on the latest news from the Middle East.

On the evening of March 29 local time, Pakistan’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister Dar issued a statement saying that regarding the issue of peacefully resolving the conflict, Pakistan’s leaders have been maintaining communication with U.S. leaders, and both the United States and Iran have expressed confidence in Pakistan’s efforts to facilitate negotiations.

Earlier, on March 26 local time, U.S. President Trump said Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a “gift.” Of these, 8 oil tankers loaded with oil are sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, and these tankers are flying the Pakistani flag. Trump said at a cabinet meeting that day, “They (Iran) are begging to reach an agreement. Let’s see if we can reach an agreement. If we can reach the right agreement, then the Strait of Hormuz will be opened.”

However, on March 29, multiple Iranian government officials took turns to comment, opposing the U.S. negotiation conditions and saying they would persist in retaliation.

On that day, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Baghaei said that the relevant proposals submitted to Iran by the U.S. through intermediaries are extremely extreme and unreasonable. These proposals involve Iran’s fundamental rights and do not reflect goodwill or a serious diplomatic approach. He also said that Iran will use all means to prevent being attacked again. Iran’s military operations will not attack Arab countries; they will target U.S. military bases and assets that are used for U.S. actions against Iran.

Iranian Islamic Consultative Assembly Speaker Kalibaf said the United States is publicly sending negotiation signals while secretly plotting a ground invasion, and it has also thrown out a so-called “15-point plan” to end the fighting, trying to achieve in war what it cannot accomplish. Kalibaf also said the fighting is at the most critical moment. U.S. fighter jets and aircraft carriers, among others, have suffered enormous losses, and Israel has also been hit. These strike actions are “precise and pioneering.” Kalibaf emphasized that the United States is seeking Iran’s surrender, and Iran will never accept humiliation.

Iranian Army spokesperson Akraminia said the core issue between the United States and Iran is by no means the nuclear issue, but rather Iran’s sovereignty and independence.

In addition, Iran’s Navy commander Irani said that Iran is closely monitoring the location and movements of the U.S. “Lincoln” aircraft carrier strike group, and once the “Lincoln” carrier strike group enters its range, Iran will fire missiles from the coast toward the sea to carry out strikes.

In response to the U.S. threats of carrying out a ground action against Iran in the near term, on the 29th, the spokesperson of the Hartam-Anbia Central Headquarters of Iran’s Armed Forces issued a statement saying, “If the relevant threats are carried out, Iran’s armed forces will resolutely retaliate.”

The United States and Israel launched large-scale military actions against Iran on February 28, and Iran retaliated against Israel as well as targets such as U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Fighting has continued to this day.

Regarding the latest developments in the fighting, on the 29th local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a bulletin saying it carried out the “True Commitment-4” operation, 86th wave. Aerial combat and drone infrastructure and ammunition depots located at the Victoria, Arif Jann, and Al Haje U.S. military bases were hit by missiles and drones.

On the same day, Iranian military authorities said that the air defense forces of the defense forces shot down an MQ-9 “Reaper” drone. The military said that an MQ-9 drone belonging to the U.S.-Israeli side was intercepted by the surveillance network of the air defense system in the eastern part of the Strait of Hormuz, successfully hit, and then crashed and disintegrated. The MQ-9 is one of the U.S. military’s long-endurance armed drones, with an estimated per-unit cost of about $30 million.

On the U.S.-Israel side, the U.S. newspaper The Washington Post, citing unnamed U.S. officials, reported that the Pentagon is preparing for a “multi-week ground operation” in Iran.

The U.S. Central Command said that American sailors and U.S. Marines aboard the amphibious assault ship “Tripoli” arrived within the responsibility area of U.S. Central Command, and it posted a denial that U.S. personnel were attacked in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates.

The Israeli military issued a statement saying that the Israeli military carried out large-scale airstrikes on multiple military infrastructure sites in Tehran, Iran’s capital. The targets included the headquarters of Iran’s Shipbuilding Industries Organization and multiple weapon production facilities. In addition, over the past two days, Israel carried out multiple rounds of large-scale airstrikes in Iran and Lebanon at the same time, striking more than 250 targets.

It is worth noting that in this more-than-a-month-long war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, the world’s important energy transportation corridor—the Strait of Hormuz—has been severely affected. Large numbers of oil tankers are stuck or diverted, causing international oil prices to surge.

On March 27 local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that the Strait of Hormuz is currently closed, and any attempt to pass through the strait will be met with a severe response. On March 28, Pakistan’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister Dar said that the Iranian government agreed to allow an additional 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and in the future, two ships will pass through the strait every day.

In addition, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz together form the two major “chokepoints” for Middle East oil exports. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden; it is a “water corridor” connecting the Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and the Indian Ocean. At its narrowest point, it is only about 30 kilometers wide and is known as the “water corridor” connecting the three continents of Europe, Asia, and Africa. Data show that about 12% of global trade transportation and nearly the same proportion of maritime oil trade pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

At present, Yemen’s Houthi forces have also joined the fighting, launching two rounds of attacks against Israel. In the earlier Israel-Palestine conflict, the Houthi forces repeatedly struck Israeli-related ships in the Red Sea as retaliation for Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip, demonstrating their military capability to cover the Red Sea.

Some analysts believe that if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz are simultaneously blocked, it could further drive the sustained surge in crude oil prices. In that case, the global economy would have to face a series of severe pressures at the same time, including shipping paralysis, higher logistics costs, inflation spiraling out of control triggered by energy shortages, and forced production cuts in manufacturing due to interruptions in the supply of raw materials.

However, since the Houthi forces began military strikes against Israel on the 28th, all of their means of strike have been missile and drone attacks, and the targets have also been inside Israel. At present, the Houthis have not yet made Red Sea cargo ships or oil tankers, among others, their targets of attack, and they have not issued an official final statement about blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Some analysts believe that the Houthis currently still treat blocking Red Sea shipping as a reserved means to constrain the U.S. and Israel, and if the Iranian front falls into passivity in the future, they may further escalate their actions.

This morning (the 30th), both U.S. crude oil and Brent crude opened higher; both gains are currently more than 2%. Brent crude on ICE is above the $107 per barrel level, while WTI crude is above $102 per barrel.

U.S. stock index futures are mostly lower.

Compiled from: CCTV News, Xinhua News Agency

Proofread by: Su Huanwen

(Editor: Wenjing)

Keywords:

                                                            Strait of Hormuz