The Four-Year Cycle of Bitcoin

Following this pattern is simple—just look at the calendar.
By observing time, we can see the peak dates of each Bitcoin bull market cycle:
December 17, 2017; November 10, 2021; October 7, 2025.
And the bottom dates of each bear market cycle:
January 14, 2015; December 15, 2018; November 22, 2022.
Each is separated by roughly four years, so we define this as a four-year cycle.
Why does this cycle pattern exist?
Because Bitcoin is different from traditional assets. Stocks can be issued additionally, and currencies can be hyperinflated—both are controlled by humans who can manipulate supply. But Bitcoin is not like that. It relies on global miners competing with computational power to mine new coins; no one can just print more at will.
The rule was set from the start: every time 210k blocks are mined, the reward halves—roughly every four years. This is known as the halving.
The core of the four-year cycle is essentially a continuous slowdown in supply growth.
Initially, a certain amount was produced daily; after halving, it’s cut in half. If demand remains unchanged or even increases, the price naturally tends to rise. That’s why, after each halving, the market has historically experienced a major rally.
It’s like the four seasons—cold and hot, planting and harvesting. The market is the same—bulls and bears, undervaluation and exuberance.
What really matters is not predicting every fluctuation but positioning yourself within the right cycle.
Gradually accumulating at lows, gradually taking profits at highs—sounds simple, but in the long run, this is one of the few truly effective strategies.
Many people keep losing money because they always want to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest, but in reality, such perfect timing almost never exists.
The significance of the cycle is that it provides a rough framework—you don’t need to guess every move; as long as you get the general direction right, you’ve already outperformed most people.
Whether the four-year cycle can help you depends on one thing: do you believe or not?
I know some will not believe, and some will believe.
For example, those calling for a slow bull in 2025 and a super cycle in January 2026—they don’t believe. If they truly practice what they preach, they should already be in losses by now. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战