Sources: U.S. intelligence warns that Iran will not relax control over the Strait of Hormuz in the short term

Three people with knowledge of the situation told that a new U.S. intelligence report warns: Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the short term. The reason is that Iran’s control over the world’s most critical oil lifeline is its only substantive bargaining chip to pressure the United States.

The assessment shows that Tehran may continue to choke the strait and drive up energy prices, forcing U.S. President Donald Trump to “find a way out” of this war that has been going on for nearly five weeks and is unpopular among U.S. voters as soon as possible.

The report also points out that the war, originally intended to destroy Iran’s military power, instead increases Iran’s regional influence—because it has demonstrated the ability to threaten this key waterway.

Trump downplays the difficulty, saying it can be “easily cleared”

Trump has long tried to play down the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz—the waterway accounts for one-fifth of global oil trade. Last Friday, in a post on “Truth Social,” he suggested that the U.S. military could directly be ordered to clear the channel:

“Give it a little more time, and we can easily clear the Strait of Hormuz, take the oil, and make a bundle.”

But analysts have long warned: using force against Iran on the side controlling the strait is costly, and could drag the United States into a prolonged ground war.

“A ‘mass disruption weapon’ the U.S. handed to Iran”

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said:

> “The U.S. originally wanted to stop Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction, but ended up handing Iran a mass disruption weapon.”

Vaez said Tehran understands this well: by controlling the energy markets on both sides of the strait, the effect can even exceed that of nuclear weapons.

Trump’s position wavers: setting conditions on one side, pushing allies on the other

Trump’s stance on the issue of the U.S. military intervening to reopen the strait has been shifting repeatedly:

- On the one hand, listing the ending of Iran’s blockade as a precondition for a ceasefire;

- On the other hand, calling on oil-dependent Gulf states and NATO allies to take the lead.

An anonymous White House official said Trump “firmly believes the strait will be cleared soon,” and explicitly stated that after the war, Iran will never be allowed to control navigation through the strait.

But the official also mentioned that Trump has said at the same time that other countries have “far greater stakes” than the United States in preventing the blockade.

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has not yet responded to a request for comment.

Iran has effectively blockaded the strait: global oil prices surge, inflation risks intensify

Since the war started on February 28, when Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched hostilities, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), facing equipment disadvantages, has used a range of measures to make commercial shipping through the strait precarious—causing insurance to fail:

- Attacks on civilian vessels, laying mines

- Forcing the collection of passage fees

Iran has effectively blockaded the strait, pushing international oil prices to their highest levels in years, leading to fuel shortages in multiple countries dependent on Gulf oil and gas.

Rising energy costs are further exacerbating U.S. inflation risks and becoming a political burden for Trump, whose support among voters is weak—while the Republican Party is preparing for the November midterm elections.

Intelligence warning: Iran will not easily give up its leverage

Three people with knowledge of the situation confirm in agreement: the latest intelligence assessment—within the short term, Iran will not give up this leverage. They refused to disclose which organizations produced the assessment.

One source said plainly: “Iran has already tasted the power and leverage that comes with controlling the strait, and it will never easily give it up.”

Even after the war, it may still charge for reconstruction

Some experts judge that even if the war ends, Iran is unlikely to relinquish its control of the strait—because it needs reconstruction funding, and charging merchant ships is an important source of revenue.

Former CIA director Bill Burns said: “Tehran will try to hold onto the leverage it has regained by disrupting shipping.”

He pointed out: Iran will use its stranglehold on the strait to seek long-term deterrence and security assurances in any peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, and to obtain direct material benefits (such as collecting passage fees) to fund postwar reconstruction. “This makes the current negotiations extremely difficult.”

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