Institutions: The U.S. labor market remains fragile with a 40% chance of entering a recession

金色财经_ · 2026-04-03T16:47:22+00:00

Although the US employment data for March rebounded strongly, economist Boussour pointed out that the labor market remains fragile, with companies' willingness to hire decreasing. He expects the labor market to remain frozen in the future, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.7%, and the probability of a recession at 40%.

金色财经_

2026-04-03 16:47:22

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Golden Finance reports that on April 4, EY-Parthenon’s senior economist Lydia Boussour said that despite a strong rebound in U.S. March employment data, the labor market remains fragile. She believes that against a backdrop of uncertainty in the policy environment, businesses are becoming more cautious, hiring intentions are cooling, and companies are increasingly inclined to protect profit margins by responding through improving productivity rather than expanding headcount. “Looking ahead, we expect the 2026 labor market to be essentially in a freeze, characterized by selective hiring, wage growth being constrained, and strategic workforce adjustments while labor supply remains in historically tight conditions.” Boussour expects employment growth to be slightly below the break-even level, with the unemployment rate gradually rising to about 4.7%. “Given that the conflict in the Middle East is still ongoing, downside risks dominate, and the probability of an economic recession is 40%, ” she added.

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