Middle Eastern aluminum supply chain under pressure + tungsten prices surge 128%, Mining ETF Guotai (561330) closes up over 3%

On March 27, Cathay Mining ETF (561330.SH) rose 3.26%, with trading volume of 83.8712 million yuan and a fund size of 2.492 billion yuan, showing an upbeat trend characterized by an expansion in volume and a steady fund scale.

【Event Interpretation】

Escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East creates pressure on the aluminum supply chain: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, and major Middle East aluminum producers such as EGA and Alba face tight supplies of alumina, with some electrolytic aluminum production lines facing shutdown; at present, Middle East electrolytic aluminum output accounts for about 9% of the global total, and supply disruptions strengthen the upside price expectations for aluminum.

Indonesia approves the nickel export tax policy: On March 26, Indonesia’s president approved a nickel export tax, with the specific tax rate to be determined; combined with increased regulation of the nickel ore industry starting in 2025, long-term nickel ore growth may slow, and nickel prices are expected to rebound from the bottom.

Wolfram (tungsten) prices show a blowout surge: In early March, the quotation for 65% scheelite concentrate reached 1.045 million yuan per ton, up nearly 128% from the beginning of the year; it also surged 633% compared with the beginning of 2025. The supply-and-demand situation for the “industrial teeth” rare metal is significantly tightening.

【Market Outlook】

CITIC Securities: Pay attention to continued efforts on the policy front—such as Ganzhou carrying out special remediation of mineral resources—combined with rising demand for overseas strategic reserves, which is expected to accelerate optimization of the supply landscape for key metals and the reconstruction of pricing logic.

CICC: Prices of rare metals such as tungsten and tantalum have shown structural divergence. The price of tungsten concentrate rose 12.33% quarter-on-quarter, while tantalum ingots rose as much as 31.25%, indicating strong demand resilience in high-end manufacturing and defense/military industry sectors. By contrast, the short-term decline in tin prices is mainly due to macro disturbances, while downstream replenishment intentions remain positive. Overall, in niche sectors with resource control and technological barriers, the market is gradually moving away from the traditional cyclical framework and shifting to a “security + growth” dual-engine logic.

Cathay Mining ETF (561330) tracks the Nonferrous Metals Mining Index (931892). This index selects, from the market, securities of companies engaged in mining resource development businesses involving commodities such as copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals, to reflect the overall performance of the nonferrous metal mining, ore dressing, and selection industry. According to Wind data, in full-year 2025, Cathay Mining ETF (561330)’s year-to-date gain ranks third among all ETFs in the market, and ranks first among ETFs in the nonferrous metals category.

Risk Warning: Data source: Wind. Cathay Mining ETF’s gain in 2025 was 106.11%, ranking first among 10 nonferrous metals ETFs. Mentioned individual stocks are only used for industry event analysis and do not constitute any recommendation or investment advice regarding any individual stock. Short-term index gains and losses are for reference only and do not represent the fund’s future performance, nor do they constitute any commitment or guarantee regarding fund performance. Viewpoints may change with market conditions and do not constitute investment advice or commitments. The risk-and-return characteristics of the mentioned funds differ; investors are kindly requested to carefully read the fund legal documents, fully understand product features, risk levels, and the principles of profit distribution, and choose products that match their own risk tolerance, and invest prudently. For fund fee rates, please consult the legal documents.

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