Analyst: The Bitcoin derivatives market is dominated by bears, with bulls continuing to face liquidation pressure.

ME News message, April 3 (UTC+8). CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted that, “The Bitcoin Position Index is a composite indicator for gauging how aggressive the derivatives market is on the long/short side, reflecting the current actual opening direction of futures market participants. The index’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) reached a local high of +3.0 on March 17 when the Bitcoin price was $73,925. Since then, it has continued to fall, and today it is already down to -3.1. This reflects the ongoing accumulation of short positions. In the same period, the Bitcoin price dropped from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d moving down in sync with the market price, further confirming that the market structure is weakening. The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued rising, reaching 18.6% as of today. This means that the market continues to generate forced liquidations on the long side, not allowing the structure to recover. The red histogram dominated by shorts that has been absent since October 2025 continues to not appear. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) stays at a high level, and the clearly negative red histogram does not return, the pressure on long positions will remain. If the 30DMA reverses downward, that is the first signal that liquidation equilibrium begins to recover. The reversal of both indicators occurs in sync, mutually confirming each other. Bitcoin has accumulated an approximately 11% decline from its peak of $74,883. Currently, there is no basis in the derivatives market structure to support a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs continue to be liquidated out, and any squeeze rallies are scarcely visible. Current stance: avoid risk. The main downside risks are: if forced liquidation pressure persists and the held-position SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, the bearish structure will become further entrenched, and the downward pressure on Bitcoin falling below $66,000 will intensify accordingly.” (Source: ODAILY)