The tungsten market is really going through an incredible phase. I heard that prices have jumped to more than 4 times their level over the past year, so I looked into how the overall market is moving, and it seems this is not just a simple surge in prices—there’s a structural shift underway across the entire industry.

According to data as of February, the prices of major products like tungsten concentrates, APT, and tungsten powder have risen by more than 400% compared with the beginning of the year. On a monthly basis, the increase is also 30%, and from the start of the year it’s close to 80%. What stood out to me was a remark from someone at an equipment manufacturer: “It’s not ‘tungsten steel’ anymore—it’s ‘tungsten gold,’” said somewhat jokingly.

What’s interesting is that this price increase is having completely different effects across the industry chain. Upstream mining companies are clearly benefiting, and companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten have successively announced optimistic performance forecasts for fiscal year 2025. Meanwhile, mid- and downstream tool manufacturers are in a “sandwich” situation. On top, raw material costs fluctuate day by day; from below, customers are reluctant to accept price increases. Large companies with strong financial resources can manage somehow, but small and medium-sized enterprises are being forced to cut production or exit the market.

Supply and demand imbalance seems to be the fundamental cause. Global tungsten supply across the industry chain can’t keep up, especially as demand has surged explosively in areas like solar power generation, AI, and new energy. Looking at the recovery price of scrap tungsten: as of March it was 200 yuan per kg, but now it’s above 1,000 yuan. It’s not just a slight jump—it's already up to a multiple. Huayue Precision, for example, has adjusted its prices 4 times since December 2025, and it’s basically become a situation where the price changes “every day.”

But personally, I don’t think this phase is bad for the industry only. When raw material prices rise, companies that can differentiate through technical strength and services become stronger. The industry is moving away from low-price competition and into an era where product strength is what wins. As Ouke Yi also points out, the tool industry is shifting from a “price war” to a “value war.”

In the solar power generation sector, the penetration rate of tungsten wire has already surpassed 60%, and there’s also a forecast that if the HJT installed capacity reaches 80GW in 2026, it will create new demand of 6,400 tons. Upstream companies are also accelerating resource integration—Xiamen Tungsten, for instance, is also moving on acquisitions to increase its mineral resource holdings.

China is the world’s largest tungsten producer, but the situation where supply is limited by quota controls, environmental regulations, and strategic stockpiling likely won’t change in the short term. In other words, tungsten prices will probably remain at high levels for now. I think the entire industry is entering an important stage of ecosystem reconfiguration and upgrading.