Guoxin Futures: Macroeconomic expectations suppress gold and silver, which fluctuate and trend weakly

The gold and silver market continues to see weak, range-bound fluctuations. The Shanghai gold main contract fell slightly by 0.99%, to 998.66 yuan per gram; the Shanghai silver main contract dropped by 2.03%, to 17,489 yuan per kilogram.
On the news front, the market’s main core pressure currently comes from a resonance between the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield threshold and geopolitical risk. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has broken above 4.4%, raising global financing costs; the debt-servicing pressure on highly leveraged institutions has increased sharply, and expectations of tighter liquidity are heating up. Rising yields lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, weighing on the valuation of precious metals.
On the geopolitical front, Trump announced that the timeline for striking Iran’s energy facilities would be delayed by 10 days to April 6 and said negotiations are progressing smoothly; however, Iran immediately denied that any negotiation arrangements had been made, and the contradictory statements from both sides highlight the complexity and uncertainty of the situation. Israel has intensified attacks on Hezbollah militants, and Yemen has further threatened the Strait of Mandeb, with geopolitical risk not materially easing. In addition, Turkey sold 22 tons of gold in a single week, the largest weekly decline since 2018, showing that some central-bank gold-buying behavior has begun to diverge, stirring up market sentiment. (Guoxin Futures)