Just caught TC Energy's Q4 2025 earnings and there's quite a bit worth paying attention to here. The company is hitting some serious operational milestones that signal strong underlying fundamentals in North American energy infrastructure.

What stood out first was their safety-first culture driving 15 flow records across their pipeline systems last year. In practical terms, their Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines hit an all-time delivery record of 33.2 Bcf on January 22nd, and the U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines pushed through 39.9 Bcf by late January. These aren't just numbers – they reflect the massive surge in power demand from data center buildouts and LNG export activity.

On the financial side, Q4 comparable EBITDA came in at $3.0 billion versus $2.6 billion a year ago, that's roughly 13% growth. Segmented earnings jumped 15% year-over-year. For the full year 2025, comparable EBITDA hit $11.0 billion. CEO François Poirier mentioned that 98% of their comparable EBITDA is backed by rate-regulated or long-term take-or-pay contracts, which essentially means predictable cash flows with minimal commodity exposure.

What's interesting from a growth perspective is how they're positioning for 2026 and beyond. They sanctioned $0.6 billion in low-risk expansion projects in Q4, with another $1.1 billion of multi-year growth plan facilities already receiving final investment decisions. On the commercial side, they closed an open season on the Columbia Gas Transmission system with 1.5 Bcf/d of total bids against a proposed 0.5 Bcf/d capacity – basically 3x oversubscribed. They just launched another open season on the Crossroads Pipeline for 1.5 Bcf/d capacity targeting Northern Indiana, Illinois, Iowa and South Dakota markets.

The capital allocation story is disciplined. They placed $8.3 billion of projects into service in 2025, running 15% under budget. Looking ahead, they expect to deploy $6.0 to $6.5 billion in capex for 2026, with visibility to fully allocate $6 billion annually through 2030 and potentially exceed that in the latter part of the decade.

One more thing that caught my attention – they just approved a 3.2% dividend increase, marking the 26th consecutive year of dividend growth. The new quarterly dividend is $0.8775 per share, equivalent to $3.51 annualized. For a company managing critical infrastructure in a structural growth market driven by data centers and energy transition, that's solid risk-adjusted returns.

The broader narrative here is that North American natural gas demand is expected to increase roughly 45 Bcf/d between 2025 and 2035, driven by LNG exports, power generation growth, and reliability needs. TC Energy's footprint across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico positions them well to capture that incremental demand. Their track record of execution – delivering projects on time and under budget – suggests they can continue capturing these opportunities without taking on excessive risk. Worth monitoring how the commercial discussions develop and whether they announce additional projects in 2026 as management indicated.