New Trends in Land Supply: Steady Growth in Industrial Land in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan — Clear Signal of "Industry First"

The Greater Bay Area’s land supply has fully entered an era of “controlling incremental supply with existing inventory,” led by industry.

With the release of the 2026 land-planning schedules for Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan, the supply trend for key cities in the Greater Bay Area this year is already clear. In terms of residential land, the supply scale of these three cities has all contracted noticeably; an even more explicit signal of change is that land resources are further tilting toward industrial land.

This reflects a shift in the supply logic of the land market.

During the booming phase of the real estate industry, the land premium revenue from residential land has been a major source of local fiscal income. As residential inventories rise, local governments have also shifted their approach, prioritizing new construction land指标—earmarking it for advanced manufacturing, strategic emerging industries, and major infrastructure—so as to break away from the traditional path of “using residential real estate land to drive land-related fiscal revenue.”

Since this year’s first quarter, the trajectory of land markets in the Greater Bay Area has gradually become clear: the residential land supply in Guangzhou, Foshan, and Shenzhen continues to shrink, and most of the supplied parcels are located in core areas of the cities; meanwhile, the transfer revenue from industrial land has remained stable and even increased further.

This land-supply logic will bring two changes. On the one hand, local governments will boost market confidence through the supply of “scarce, one-of-a-kind parcels,” ushering the real estate market into a “quality-first” and “product-first” era. On the other hand, increasing industrial land supply will also drive industrial upgrading, fully shifting into an era of “industry-driven” development.

Precision in Residential Land Supply

At the national level, overall land transaction volumes have continued to contract in recent years.

According to data compiled by Centaline/CRIC, in 2025, the national 300 cities’ land auctions and listings (招拍挂)成交的建筑面积 reached 1 billion square meters, down 11% year over year.

Last year, the average auctioned area in first-tier cities fell 28%; among them, Guangzhou’s成交面积 dropped 38%, while Beijing and Shanghai fell 20% and 37%, respectively. Although high-priced land parcels frequently appeared in first-tier cities, the overall mainstay remains strict control over new land supply and maintaining healthy inventory levels.

Against this backdrop, residential land planning is shifting toward “fewer but better” parcels, aligning more with current trends.

Taking Guangzhou as an example, according to the “2026 Guangzhou Blue Book on the Supply of Commercial Land” (《2026年广州经营性用地供地蓝皮书》), Guangzhou in 2026 will include 326 land parcels in total, with a total land area of about 1,320 hectares; of these, 119 are residential land parcels, accounting for 36%. Compared with previous years, Guangzhou’s planned supply of residential land this year has decreased clearly. Last year’s planned supply was 134 parcels. In addition, in the central areas, the number of parcels and their supply area in Tianhe, Haizhu, Baiyun, and Liwan have both shrunk.

Although the number of parcels decreases, “quality” becomes more prominent. Among them, the Financial City Petrochemical land parcel, the Wushan Area biopharmaceutical factory parcels, the two parcels in the Financial City start-up zone, and the three parcels in the Olympic Sports Center area are all core locations in Tianhe, and they are also receiving close attention from property developers.

A person engaged in land investment at a state-owned enterprise analyzed for a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald, saying that the “shrinking” land supply is a trend across localities. Fundamentally, this is because market segmentation has intensified, and developers are more inclined to focus on core areas to increase certainty. Meanwhile, there are also differences between the target customer base for new-home markets and that for second-hand homes. New-home buyers’ budgets are typically more ample, and their demand for good products and good services is higher—so parcels in core areas can produce higher-premium products.

Residential land supply in Shenzhen is also shrinking while quality improves.

According to Shenzhen’s 2026 annual plan for the supply of land for construction, in 2026, Shenzhen’s construction land supply will focus on the goals of “having good homes to live in, good jobs, easier schooling and medical care, and more comfortable everyday life.” It will coordinate the revitalization of existing inventory land with the supply of incremental land, promoting efficient use of land resources. For residential land, Shenzhen will allocate resources precisely: it plans to supply 90 hectares, including 55 hectares of commodity housing land and 35 hectares of affordable housing land.

According to the “Notice on the 2026 Annual Plan for the Supply of Urban and Rural Construction Land in Foshan” (《佛山市2026年度城乡建设用地供应计划的通知》), Foshan’s total planned supply of state-owned construction land in 2026 will be 1,646 hectares, up 5.2% year over year from 2025; however, Foshan’s residential land supply will also be reduced, with its supply at 218 hectares, accounting for only 13%, down slightly by 1.8% year over year from 2025.

Extracting Value from Industry

While residential land is taking a “refined and premium” route, industrial land supply continues to increase.

Among them, Guangzhou closely follows the development strategy of “advancing both industry and commerce, integrating two sectors.” In the 2026 annual plan, Guangzhou will supply 149 parcels of commercial and service land, accounting for 46%; 36 parcels of industrial land, accounting for 11%; and 22 parcels of other land, accounting for 7%.

Through the systematic classification and concentrated presentation of four types of land (residential land, commercial and service land, industrial land, and other land), Guangzhou’s commercial land shows itself as an important land factor guarantee for building platforms for industrial development and enhancing urban functions. In this way, it will empower new productive forces, adhere to “market-oriented, with no upper limit,” and fully ensure land demand for the “20+8” strategic emerging industries and future industries.

A typical example is the “one-of-a-kind” Ma’ Chang parcel in Zhujiang New Town, acquired by Yuexiu Property for 22.6 billion yuan in February this year. It is a comprehensive land parcel. In the future, it will be developed into a super comprehensive block integrating industrial offices, commercial and leisure, residential living, and hotel supporting facilities, releasing more than one million square meters of high-quality spatial carriers and creating a new urban-functional ecosystem for the future.

Beyond residential land, Shenzhen this year continues to increase the supply of other types of land. Specifically, industrial land is planned to be supplied at 255 hectares; it will adhere to “market-oriented, with no upper limit,” fully ensuring land demand for the “20+8” strategic emerging industries and future industries, empowering new productive forces. Public-service and urban infrastructure land is planned to be supplied at 713 hectares, focusing on improving the comprehensive level of construction for education, healthcare, culture and sports, transportation, municipal works, and so on.

Foshan also fully ensures the supply of industrial land and public-benefit amenities for people’s livelihoods.

In terms of the share of different types of land, this year, Foshan’s industrial, mining, and warehousing land takes the absolute lead, with a supply of 997 hectares and a share as high as 61%, becoming the core support for the year’s land supply. Public administration and public service land, transportation land, water conservancy facilities land, and other public-interest lands total 352 hectares, accounting for 21%, fully ensuring landing demand for urban infrastructure, people’s-livelihood support, and industrial parks.

CRIC analysis says that Foshan is fully pushing the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing,打造 a city business card of “manufacturing industry as the anchor.” The supply structure with industrial land accounting for more than 60% is precisely to reserve development space for key industries such as high-end equipment manufacturing, smart home furnishings, biopharmaceuticals, new energy, and intelligent computing industries—solidifying the foundation of the real economy. Land resources tilting toward industry means Foshan’s development focus is shifting from “real-estate-driven” to “industry-driven,” and the property market’s development will also shift from “scale expansion” to “quality improvement,” aligning with Foshan’s “good homes” policy.

With residential land supply shrinking and land supply tilting toward industry and supporting amenities, developers’ logic for acquiring land will also change.

CRIC states that high-quality residential parcels will become the focus of developers’ attention. As competition in the land auction market intensifies, central SOEs and state-owned enterprises, leveraging their capital and resource advantages, will continue to dominate the land auction market, and industry concentration will keep rising. On the other hand, due to land-cost impacts, developers will no longer pursue “high turnover and fast sell-through,” but will pivot to “high-quality with excellent services,” focusing on product R&D. Quality products such as fourth-generation housing, ultra-new-spec communities, and low-density residential communities will become the market mainstream, with the property market shifting from “price competition” to “quality competition.”