Silver and crude oil prices reverse, stemming from two structural changes in China

SelfStaking · 2026-04-03T14:42:17+00:00

In the 2025 international commodities market, precious metal prices are rising. Silver has surpassed oil prices for the first time, reflecting China's decarbonization and economic deflation risks. A Bank of America Securities report shows that the silver-to-oil price ratio is below 1, with silver reaching a record high while oil prices have fallen to their lowest in nearly five years.

SelfStaking

2026-04-03 14:42:17

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In the international commodities markets of 2025, rising precious metals prices and falling crude oil prices are drawing attention. A symbolic event is that silver’s price per troy ounce first exceeded the crude oil price for the first time in 44 years since 1980. The historic “reversal drama” reflects two structural changes. This is China’s accelerating decarbonization trend and the long-term risk of domestically entrenched deflation.

In mid-December, a report by Michael Hartnett, a well-known strategist at U.S. investment bank BofA Securities (Bank of America Securities), sparked heated discussion among market participants. The chart he focused on was the “ratio of crude oil to silver prices.” Calculated by dividing the price of 1 barrel of crude oil by the price of 1 ounce of silver, the ratio has remained below 1 since December. Aside from anomalies that appeared during the COVID-19 pandemic, the clear reversal in the prices of the two assets is the first such occurrence since 1980.

On December 24, the London spot price, as the benchmark for the silver reference, rose to $72 per ounce, reaching a new all-time high. Compared with the end of 2024, it has risen to 2.5 times. Looking at crude oil, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures prices fell below $55 per barrel in mid-December, hitting the lowest level in about 4 years and 10 months. With a simple calculation, a silver coin of around 31 grams can buy one barrel of crude oil.

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