Deutsche Bank anticipates that U.S. bank stocks will perform steadily in Q1 earnings season: overall performance is expected to be solid, with net interest income likely to hit the upper end of guidance

Zhitu Tong Finance APP learned that the U.S. bank stock earnings season will kick off on April 13 (Monday) Eastern Time, and Goldman Sachs (GS.US) will be the first to release its results for the first quarter of 2026 before the U.S. market opens that day. Deutsche Bank recently issued a report saying it expects overall bank results to be steady/strong, with most banks’ net interest income (NII) staying toward the upper end of the guidance range (or higher), capital markets business trends staying strong (investment banking + trading), operating leverage performing well, and asset quality remaining stable. Deutsche Bank said that among banks it covers, its most favored names before earnings are Huntington Bank (HBAN.US), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC.US), and United States Trust Bank of the United States (USB.US).

Deutsche Bank noted that given it is currently only for the first quarter of the full year, and macro uncertainty has risen somewhat, it expects most banks will not make large adjustments to their 2026 fiscal-year guidance. However, within its coverage, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US) may raise its full-year net interest income guidance again, due to strong loan growth and higher interest-rate expectations; Bank of America (BAC.US) may also raise guidance, or at least tighten the guidance range to the mid-to-high end.

Other banks may keep their net interest income guidance unchanged, because the sustainability of loan growth remains unclear while the interest-rate environment and outlook have become more volatile. By contrast, Truist Financial (TFC.US) may hint at a downward tendency in full-year guidance, because its net interest margin (NIM) expansion depends more on rate cuts, while management previously assumed that the pace of rate cuts would be earlier than what the market generally expects.

1、2026年一季度业绩表现最佳/最弱的银行

Deutsche Bank said that its first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 15 of the large bank stocks it covers are, on average, about 1% higher than the market consensus. Among them, its forecasts most exceed the market consensus for Goldman Sachs, Huntington Bank, and KeyCorp (KEY.US), while its forecast for Manufacturers Bank of the United States (MTB.US) is the most below the consensus.

Before the earnings releases, Deutsche Bank’s most favored banks are Huntington Bank, PNC Financial Services Group, and United States Trust Bank of the United States, for the following reasons:

1. Huntington Bank:

The stock had previously underperformed due to concerns about costs, uncertainty around valuation issues from merger-and-acquisition transactions, and market worries that it might conduct another large bank merger. However, considering its strong independent growth outlook, reasonable M&A assumptions, credit underwriting quality that is better than market perception, and confidence that management will not pursue a large merger during periods of undervaluation, Deutsche Bank still lists Huntington Bank as its preferred target. At present, the stock price (based on 2026–2027 consensus forecast levels) trades at a 12%–13% discount to peers. With pessimistic expectations already largely priced into the stock, this creates an investment opportunity.

2. PNC Financial Services Group:

PNC Financial Services Group has higher leverage in commercial and industrial (C&I) loan growth (accounting for 55%–60% of loans) and capital markets business (accounting for 6%–7% of revenue). At the same time, the bank has long been one of the banks with the best performance in credit risk management, and its asset quality has been consistently leading its peers since the global financial crisis.

3. United States Trust Bank of the United States:

United States Trust Bank of the United States has achieved results that meet or exceed guidance for three consecutive quarters, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the first quarter of 2026. In addition, among the banks covered by Deutsche Bank, United States Trust Bank of the United States is a bank stock with stronger credit-defense characteristics, which gives it an advantage in the current environment of rising credit concerns. Even so, United States Trust Bank of the United States’s current stock price is still about a 6% discount versus the 2026 fiscal-year consensus forecast, and it is roughly flat versus 2027.

2、关键主题

Deutsche Bank said it expects the revenue trend to reflect net interest income that is basically stable quarter over quarter, with strong C&I loan growth offsetting the impact from two fewer quarter days and the seasonal decline in credit card business. Capital markets business performance is strong: investment banking revenue is expected to grow 20%, trading business revenue is expected to grow 15%, and other fee income is broadly in line with expectations. Other trends are expected to include: asset quality staying broadly stable (despite volatile loss for some banks), cost control staying good, and a slight improvement in share buybacks (affected by the decline in the stock price during the quarter).

Deutsche Bank expects net interest income to be at the upper end of guidance or higher, mainly driven by loan growth that exceeds expectations. Net interest income is expected to be basically flat quarter over quarter, with loan growth offsetting the impact from fewer quarter days. The net interest margin is expected to rise by 2 basis points quarter over quarter. On a year-over-year basis, Deutsche Bank expects the overall net interest income of the banks it covers to grow 8% year over year, which would be the strongest growth since the second quarter of 2023.

3、全年EPS预测调整

Deutsche Bank pointed out that in mid-March, several banks shared their views on the macro environment, disclosed trends within the quarter, and updated guidance. Based on subsequent communications with each bank, Deutsche Bank updated its earnings forecasts. Overall, Deutsche Bank’s 2026 fiscal-year predictions are basically unchanged. At the same time, for the first time, the firm released forecasts for most covered banks for fiscal years 2027–2028. Looking at it overall, its forecast for fiscal year 2027 is in line with the market, while its forecast for fiscal year 2028 is about 1% higher.