Why can it be ahead of the market? What is the basis for the judgment? April 3rd

Since it’s the weekend, let me ramble a bit more privately. There are too many followers asking me questions, and there are too many questions. A lot of the details I’ve already said in the comments section. The ultra-short core is: cycle, emotion. Don’t lose the thread and get it backward. All technical analysis is subordinate to the cycle and emotion. I can’t reproduce every previous move from the earlier price action, and while technically you can go back and reconstruct it, emotion is very hard to reconstruct. [Taoguba]
You should think more about why I look at things the way I do. What is the basis? This will deepen your judgment of the cycle and emotion. No one is perfect. I can’t say that what I see is definitely right—I’ll make mistakes too, but the deviation won’t be too big. This is from years of accumulation of “learning the market.” So post-mortems must be done from big to small. You can think of the stock market as a battle: whom do you send first? How many troops? How do you deploy them? Everything depends on whether you can see the whole situation, from big to small. The stock market is the same: first you need to look at the big picture—cycle—to decide whether you should send troops, and how many. That’s the premise.
Let’s reconstruct the recent market again: the Middle East conflict began to serve as a reminder of oil, methanol, and other alternative energy sources. Because the event was too big, it broke the market’s existing rhythm. At that time, quant models dominated. I made my judgment in time that this was not a normal upswing cycle. The day the secondary market diverged, it reminded us to look at power and the power grid the next day. Did Yueneng’s 4 boards and Liaoneng’s 4 boards remind you to focus on them the next day? You need to think deeply about why I reminded you about Yueneng and Liaoneng, but why the “medicine” doesn’t get reminded here—and the wording I used was also different. Around March 27 or 26, you should go look yourself at when I reminded you that power needed to defend—it was before it started to fall. After judging that things would turn chaotic afterward, why do you still want me to keep rambling today? If you understand the cycle, it’s not hard. The hard part is that you can’t see the key points—you’re staring at the daily limit-up boards every day.
Hope that during this holiday, new followers will look more carefully at the posts and the comments. A lot of things, some details during intraday trading will tell you. No one is a god. I also infer things through certain details. At least 80% or more of the inferences are correct.
Remember this: the cycle is the core. It determines whether it’s chaos or the main upswing. It determines whether it’s a big cycle or a small cycle. It determines whether you do it or not. It determines how much position size you use to do it.
Let me talk about the views ahead:
1: Overall, it’s still chaotic here. No matter whether it’s recently power, batteries, computing power, or pharma—most are the rotation of chaotic cycles.
2: Yesterday’s post mentioned a few themes and individual stocks. Optical fiber and cable are “through” trades, the core is Changfei. Today Changfei is stronger than the other few. As long as it doesn’t fall, the “younger brothers” will keep coming out.
3: Pharma was weak on the day before yesterday’s session with a weak split. Normally, Jinyao should go to 6 boards. The sector should rotate back, but today the divergence continues. The Jinyao main force doesn’t have enough confidence—it doesn’t dare to explode volume in the split. The divergence happens on the board. No matter how many boards it goes to, I won’t go after it. I treat it as an anchor for emotion and timing. Yesterday, in the comment section, I mentioned a detail about how the main-line theme was operated—hope everyone deepens the impression. Once you’re in an acceleration mode, there are no buy points.
4: A few views going forward:
If after the optical fiber event it matches what you want to do, then you can do it. One day is one day, as long as it fits position control.
Wait for Jinyao to break the board, then see whether new things come out below. There must be room for imagination; otherwise it’s still chaos.
The market index: I said back on March 3 that it should adjust for about a month. The time is about right now. But technically, it still lacks one 120-minute double bottom. Going forward, if it’s technically validated, and it comes out in resonance with the broader market, it should be given attention.
Thanks to the fans who gave tips: @lovbeauty @Luyá old airforce @Dream Cat @hhsh001 @Mo Han0 @Moonlight Wharf @10475810 blog @2020 March 31 Revious @Autumn Melon Seeda @Shenmeng Yidao斩