Galaxy Futures: Methanol Remains Firm and Rises

The Iran–Israel conflict shows no signs of stopping. Currently, the methanol plants in the Iran region are still under full shutdown. Daily production has fallen from 23,000 tons to around 1,200 tons. Market reports say some units have resumed, but output remains low. As the war continues, concerns in the domestic market about the impact of a potential sharp reduction in future imports are growing increasingly serious. With the hot war continuing and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasting too long, inventories in the East China and South China regions have begun to be quickly worked down. As of March 11, 2026, China’s methanol port inventory totaled 1.3128 million tons, down 130.7 thousand tons from the previous period. Among them, East China saw an inventory drawdown of 956 thousand tons; South China saw an inventory drawdown of 351 thousand tons. It is expected that imports in April will fall to around 300 thousand tons. Port inventory drawdowns are expected to exceed 300 thousand tons. Meanwhile, as the hot war gradually escalates, methanol spot prices in the domestic Northwest region have also surged sharply following market sentiment. Along with the rapid expansion of MTO profits, there are expectations that some previously shut-down units may restart, prompting some players to look for buying methanol. The market worries that the shortage of supply will intensify. In the short term, it is still mainly about going long on dips; do not chase higher prices. (Galaxy Futures)