The Real Game of the Crypto World in 2026

Recently, I’ve been pondering a question: when the US stock market’s P/E ratio hits 40.5, and the total market capitalization to GDP ratio reaches 230%, how should we view cryptocurrencies?

These figures far exceed the levels seen before the 1929 crash. Even more strangely, the Nasdaq 100 index has risen 141%, while the M2 money supply has only grown 5%—meaning stock prices are increasing 28 times faster than the new money entering the system. Some say this is a valuation reshaping driven by the AI revolution, but I believe it’s more likely a macro bubble.

Because of this uncertainty, many retail investors have been repeatedly squeezed out of the market. From ICOs in 2017, NFTs in 2021, to Meme coins in 2024, each hype cycle involves value transfer—retail investors end up as bagholders. The next wave of real capital should come from institutions, not retail.

Institutions aren’t interested in governance tokens; they want assets that generate real returns. That’s why I’m optimistic about projects with “dividend-like” attributes—such as stablecoin issuers, prediction markets, and RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization.

Speaking of RWA, this might be the most underestimated opportunity in 2026. From McKinsey to Standard Chartered, forecasts for RWA’s scale by 2030 range from $2 trillion to $30 trillion. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink compares the current stage to “the internet in 1996”—when Amazon was just a bookstore.

In the RWA space, protocols like Morpho, which offers lending solutions, and Chainlink, which provides data pricing, are foundational infrastructure. Morpho can offer flexible lending options for institutions, while Chainlink controls data valuation. I’ve noticed traditional giants like UBS and SWIFT are using Chainlink’s services. If RWA truly explodes, these protocols’ valuations will be re-rated.

But there’s a hidden risk: if tokens can’t generate real yields for holders, institutions might directly acquire project equity, bypassing the token. There’s precedent—one major exchange acquired the Axelar team but didn’t buy AXL tokens. By 2026, conflicts between token holders and equity owners will become more apparent. Value must flow into tokens; otherwise, we’re just reconstructing traditional finance.

Let’s also look at prediction markets. They’ve gone mainstream in 2024 and will continue expanding in 2026. But the core issue is “who determines the truth of events”—as betting stakes grow, settlement becomes a challenge. The market needs better decentralized solutions, which is why I’m interested in new token issuance models like Echo—trying to enable retail and VC participants to enjoy more equitable participation.

Regarding token issuance, ICOs are making a comeback. MegaETH raised $450 million, and Echo also completed a funding round before acquisition. It seems democratic, but honestly, mechanisms like KYC, reputation scores, and quota limits still favor insiders and KOLs. My X account can access the best quotas, but what about most people? The rules of token issuance have always favored those who control resources and understand the game.

That said, this ICO cycle is definitely better than airdrops—at least it reflects real demand for tokens. Airdrops still have opportunities, but the difficulty is increasing. In 2025, airdrops in new financial sectors will gradually open up, but participation has declined. That’s actually a good thing—it reduces competition pressure.

As for Meme coins, I must say: they won’t die. Some believe the Meme coin era is over, but as long as markets have emotion and retail investors crave “thousandfold returns,” Meme coins will make a comeback. Financial nihilism also didn’t disappear on January 1, 2026. Incentives for KOLs to promote Meme coins are high, and regulation is hard to enforce completely.

Now, let me share some overlooked truths.

First is quantum risk. This isn’t a distant threat—it’s a panic factor that could impact markets right now. If Google or IBM announces a “quantum breakthrough,” Bitcoin’s price could plummet 50%. Bitcoin needs to upgrade its signature algorithms to address this, but that could cause community disagreements. Ethereum has already included “quantum resistance” in its roadmap, giving ETH an edge.

Second is privacy. The community is excited about the return of privacy coins, but I believe the real opportunity lies in privacy infrastructure for institutions. Privacy coins are banned worldwide, yet institutional demand for privacy is urgent—over-the-counter trading in the US stock market already accounts for nearly 50%, because on-chain transparency exposes trading strategies.

Canton blockchain was created for this purpose. DTCC announced that in Q2 2026, US Treasury bonds will be tokenized on Canton. Behind Canton are giants like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Nasdaq. This shows that privacy isn’t just a short-term narrative—it’s a core institutional demand.

Ethereum is also advancing privacy features. Vitalik has listed the lack of privacy as a “structural flaw” of Ethereum and released a detailed privacy roadmap. Aztec Network’s privacy Layer2 is now live. Ethereum needs to shift from “don’t do evil” to “impossible to do evil.”

On Layer1 scalability, most still think all applications will migrate to Layer2, but in reality, Layer1 is quietly expanding. After Fusaka upgrade, the gas limit increased from 30 million to 60 million, with further increases expected mid-2026. With ZK-EVM tech, Layer1 TPS could reach thousands. This means the narrative of “ultrasound money” may have quieted, but revival remains possible.

Another overlooked change: the four-year cycle is gone.

Previously, Bitcoin’s price was driven by halving cycles, but now it’s different. Miners produce only 450 BTC daily, and a large asset management firm’s Bitcoin ETF can absorb this supply in 15 minutes. The “supply shock from halving” narrative is no longer valid.

What truly drives Bitcoin is macro liquidity. Overlaying Bitcoin’s price with global M2 money supply shows a high correlation. Bitcoin also tends to lag gold by 60 to 150 days—the “Bitcoin chasing gold” trading logic has far more influence than the traditional four-year cycle.

I believe Bitcoin will maintain long-term growth by “absorbing gold’s monetary premium and store-of-value function.” This is the core logic behind my bullish view of Bitcoin as a “safe-haven asset,” not a “high-risk asset.” But this narrative gap is also the key factor holding back Bitcoin’s price appreciation. The market needs a large-scale asset rotation to firmly establish Bitcoin’s status as a safe haven.

Finally, let’s talk about DAT (Digital Asset Custody Companies). Some say DAT’s buying momentum has exhausted, but I think it’s more complicated. Bitcoin DAT demand is cooling, but Ethereum DAT is involved in PoS staking and DeFi protocols. BitMine has staked大量 ETH for yields and is developing its own validator network. This turns DAT from passive holding into a “productivity infrastructure.”

For altcoins, DAT could become an “IPO moment”—institutions can use this simple way to legally deploy in altcoins. Although insider trading risks exist, if Ethereum DAT continues staking in 2026 and expands into quality assets, DAT will be a net positive for the crypto space.

Overall, 2026’s crypto scene is undergoing profound structural change—from retail dominance to institutional participation, from speculation to yield, from Layer2 to Layer1 expansion, from four-year cycles to macro-driven dynamics. These changes bring opportunities but also hidden risks. The most important thing is to learn to distinguish between explicit and implicit truths and lies—those overlooked trends often contain the best trading opportunities.