[Red Envelope] April 3rd Review: Ultimately, it's still the Qingming Festival disaster. Good defensive discipline at critical moments can save lives!

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Pre-market bidding information:

1. CNPC Capital, the largest order, RMB settlement + petroleum—guides the market toward risk aversion, but still based on the previous view: who comes up with the “royal bomb” first.
2. Cuiwei Co., Ltd., RMB settlement, follows CNPC Capital.
3. Beken Energy, petroleum—there are so many proper, straightforward ones that don’t get chosen; pick Beken… Whether to do it or not isn’t the point, the sincerity is definitely average.
4. Huiyuan Communications, fiber optics—guides the crowding together.

Pre-market bidding risk/opportunity news reminders and analysis:

1. At 9:16, the reminder arrives: the Tianjin Yaodde order is getting smaller. Yesterday we talked about the split between the back row and the front row—corresponding to the paired opposing opportunity and the opposing opportunity. So you need to focus on the Tianjin Yaodde order status.
   If Zhongyao is opened as a one-word limit, then you also need to look at the order size comparison; if the order is gone or reduced, you should pay attention to the split.

2. At 9:19, the reminder arrives: CNPC Capital is the biggest order. Last time it was also CNPC Capital doing a biggest order. The result was that it got smashed right at the open. A one-word limit with a trillion market cap—are they really trying to do it? I’m voting against it because I think the guidance market environment is poor and the whole thing feels like a scam.

3. At 9:21, the reminder arrives: the split in the medicine sector isn’t small. If it’s a big split, then the opposing factors yesterday are what to look at: the opposing factors include the power-supply cycle, the institutional line, the crowding line, the rotation line, and so on. These are all the rampaging themes when there is a split in the main line. So you just need to see what the market chooses.

4. At 9:28, the reminder arrives: the institutions’ line is snatching shares. Then you should correspondingly pay attention that themes need to watch for “bleeding” absorption—paired opposing themes. Medicine and batteries both need caution.
   For the medicine side, you need to watch Tianjin Yaodde’s trend. The bidding suggests the split is really large. It’s already not just a back-row split—it’s a huge split in the front row too. Then the paired opposing factors also need to be careful.

So from the end of the bidding, the information you can get is:

1. The medicine sector showed a big split. That matches yesterday’s preset scenarios of #2 and #3. But the power logic is actually missing one step—so pay attention to cost-effectiveness. If not, then you can only watch how these other opposing factor effects play out.
2. The medicine bidding was a big split. That corresponds to repairing expectations. That’s why it’s reasonable that Tianjin Yaodde’s strong limit-up early in the morning led to a return flow. Then it implies a chance to buy low the Minuowei and Sellide bonds.
3. Chuaneng and Datongnan had no premium. Shengyang opened below the 5-day line. Medicine isn’t a back-row split but a big split. Then the paired opposing factors have been abandoned too—so find a good defensive position and pay attention to defense.
4. Huiyuan opened as a one-word limit. Taishan weak-to-strong opened high. Fiber optics + power grid. After Taishan adds volume, it becomes a cost-effectiveness “bet” opportunity.

Today’s operations:

1. Shida, bought while it was underwater yesterday. Since the medicine sector had a big split rather than a back-row split today, the paired opposing factors were hit. From the battery angle, none of the ones had any premium. Shengyang opened below the 5-day line. Shida opened on the 10-day line. It couldn’t break above the zero axis, so it moved and you took a trade. Then it sank and broke the low, meaning it broke the 10-day line—then you cleared the position around two points.
2. No position. In the rotation period, you first get the expectation of a one-day travel—wait until after the holiday, and then we’ll talk.

Discipline is extremely important at key moments. Where you buy is where the defensive position is. If the logic and expectations are off, don’t hesitate.

Today’s review:
Yesterday’s expectation was a back-row split for medicine. The result forced a continuation of strength, very much like the short-lived way it went during seedance 2.0. It overspent the split expectations for later, which caused today’s back-row split to be skipped and instead the front row opened board-breaking with a big split. Then the paired opposing factor—batteries—ended up looking like a clown. Because in a big split situation, you either go to non-mainline logic to hedge risk, or you go to the mainline core to bottom-pick. Who would care whether the paired opposing factors live or die? The battery clown also indirectly made power become a clown. In reality, the expectations for power hadn’t been reached yet because the selling earlier wasn’t cleaned up. Another reason is that batteries are a derivative theme that came out after the power split. Only when batteries successfully return flow can it add return-flow expectations for power, which is why people come to bottom-pick. If the junior themes don’t set a strong good start, who would think the big brother theme really fell all the way to the bottom?

Then let’s look at today’s chart again. From the bidding, you could extract: 1. Oil is the strongest—emotion hedging; 2. Medicine has a big split—paired opposing factors pay attention to risk, and for opposing themes pay attention to who is strong; 3. Fiber optics opened as a one-word limit—an independent rising line crowded together as guidance. So if you think carefully, you can tell that the market is “bad” in terms of main line, “worse” in the main line, but strong in crowding from the bidding.

After the open, medicine, driven by Tianjin Yaodde, moved into a return-flow. Correspondingly, the fiber optics line also saw selling pressure. But when you found that medicine’s return flow wasn’t smooth or strong, then opposing capital started snatching shares. You can see that both power and fiber optics showed return-flow actions. But one detail: because medicine’s big split caused batteries to disappear directly, the power return flow also wasn’t smooth. In the end, fiber optics strengthened by following Huiyuan’s guidance. So the opportunities are: Tianjin Yaodde’s limit-up close; Zhongyao arbitrage; Anyaizone cost-effectiveness low buys; Huiyuan one-word limit; fiber optics logic is stronger than power—after Taishan weak-to-strong adds volume, arbitrage; medicine big split—avoid batteries; independent line strength + risk-hedging environment—avoid rotation themes.

Something slightly newer in the market today is computing power dispatch. The news from yesterday: inclusive computing power. Then Zhenzhen got the first board. If you believed, you can hold overnight. For the outperformance, there is a bond arbitrage opportunity with Sichtek (SiTech) convertible bonds.

Let’s look at the stocks with multiple limit-ups:
6 boards:
Tianjin Yaodde, innovative drugs, good share capital—yesterday it crossed over, and today it broke through. Then the first board comes at key nodes, and you should compare it with Anyaizone. If you combine with Anyaizone breaking down, you need to be careful with Tianjin Yaodde. Next week, it will pass through the tribulation into abnormal movement. If it remains strong, pay attention to medicine’s return flow.
2 boards: Tianjin Yaodde crossing over at a node
Huiyuan Communications, medicine’s opposing side. If it keeps upgrading, it will increase the power return-flow expectation and may offer an opportunity for fiber optics to switch from power.
Zhongyao Holdings, Tianjin Yaodde’s chief little brother, a catch-up gain. If Tianjin Yaodde can’t be bought, someone will come to do Zhongyao.
Xinneng Taishan, cables + fiber optics—two strings tied together. Essentially, it’s still bottom-layer logic. You can’t avoid it. Why is Datongnan, which has such a “membrane” recently so strong too? Fundamentally, it’s still a bottom-layer consumable—you can’t avoid it.
First board: break-through node
Tongyu Communications, optical communication—keep hitting gophers in the space/aviation sector.
Wangda Software—didn’t understand what the limit-up logic is.
Sichtek—computing power dispatch, backed by bonds. For themes that are beyond expectations, remember to do arbitrage.
Yutong, again packaging—plus a share buyback news.
China Medical—breakthrough node catch-up little brother, market cap is relatively large.
Zhujiang, three.

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