Just been digging into the CME FedWatch data and it's pretty wild how traders were lining up on this one. Back when they were looking ahead to the FOMC meeting dates in late January 2025, the probability for a rate hold was sitting at 95%. That's basically saying the entire market had made up its mind about what the Fed would do.

What caught my attention is how solid that consensus was. You had inflation gradually coming down - CPI was at 3.2% year-over-year, core PCE at 2.8% - and the job market staying strong below 4% unemployment. That combination pretty much locked in the rate decision before the committee even showed up.

The Fed's been pretty clear about their game plan too. They're watching the data, not rushing into anything. After sitting tight through 2024, the FOMC meeting schedule suggested they'd probably keep rates steady through early 2025 and then maybe start cutting later if inflation kept behaving.

What's interesting is how the market prices this stuff in real-time through Fed Funds futures. When you see 95% odds, that's traders putting real money behind their expectations. Hard to argue with that kind of conviction, especially when the economic data was backing it up.