The U.S. proposes a negotiation plan to Iran! Iran appoints a new Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council! International oil prices plummet sharply! LPG futures drop over 6%

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Source: Futures Daily

Good morning! Let’s start with important updates.

The U.S. proposes a peace talks framework with “15 conditions” for Iran

According to CCTV, as of local time on March 24, the U.S. government, via Pakistan, presented to Iran a conflict-ending proposal that includes “15 conditions,” covering the nuclear program, missile capabilities, and regional issues.

It is reported that the main demands from the U.S. include: Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities, commit to not developing nuclear weapons, prohibit uranium enrichment on its own soil, transfer about 60% of its inventory of highly enriched uranium, dismantle nuclear facilities such as Natanz, Esfahan, and Fordow, and allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to conduct comprehensive inspections. At the same time, the U.S. also demands that Iran stop supporting armed regional allies, ban providing funding, command, and weapon support, and limit the size and range of ballistic missiles to defensive use only, while ensuring that the Strait of Hormuz remains open.

As a swap condition, Iran may receive comprehensive lifting of international sanctions, U.S. support for its development of civilian nuclear projects, and cancellation of the “rapid restoration of sanctions” mechanism.

It is understood that the U.S. is considering pushing for a one-month ceasefire so that further negotiations can be conducted on the above terms. The proposal is being promoted by Trump advisers including Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

Also, Israel’s news report on the 24th said that the U.S. intends to propose a one-month ceasefire plan in order to discuss with Iran an agreement containing 15 points aimed at ending the war.

Trump says Iran agreed to “never have nuclear weapons”

According to CCTV, on the 24th local time, U.S. President Trump said that the U.S. is negotiating with Iran and that the U.S. military has “freedom of action” over Tehran; he also said that Iran has “begun rational communication,” and that it has agreed to “never have nuclear weapons.”

In remarks at the White House, Trump said that the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran “may already be quite close to reaching an agreement,” but he was “not satisfied” with the current arrangement for the agreement, and accused the Democrats earlier of “sabotaging an agreement already negotiated,” saying that this action would have an adverse impact on the United States during the current military operations.

Trump said that the U.S.’ actions against Iran are “very successful,” and that the related operations have weakened Iran’s military capabilities, including missile launch capabilities and its defense system. He said the U.S. is “in a very favorable negotiating position,” and emphasized that Iran has “agreed not to develop nuclear weapons,” including not carrying out uranium enrichment activities.

When talking about changes in the situation, Trump said that Iran’s leadership has been “removed,” and that the current situation “can be viewed as a form of regime change.” At the same time, he stressed that he “does not trust any party,” but mentioned that Iran has recently made “important moves” related to oil and natural gas, which he said shows that the negotiation counterpart “is willing to cooperate.”

Iran appoints new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council

According to Xinhua News Agency, Mehdi Tabatabaei, deputy director in charge of news and communications affairs at the Iranian presidential palace, said on social media on the 24th that, with the approval of Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei, Mohammad Bagher Zolghader has been appointed as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council by presidential decree.

Zolghader takes over the post from Larijani, who was killed in an attack earlier. According to Iranian media reports, Zolghader had served as Larijani’s deputy.

In 2005, Zolghader was appointed deputy minister in charge of security and law enforcement affairs at Iran’s Ministry of Interior. From 2010 to 2012, he served as deputy minister in charge of social security and crime prevention at Iran’s judicial institutions. From 2012 to 2020, he served as deputy minister in charge of strategic affairs at Iran’s judicial institutions.

Zolghader has also served as deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an officer responsible for “mobilizing the poor” within the General Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces, and secretary of the National Interests Determination Council of Iran, among other positions.

U.S. Marine Corps to arrive in the Middle East at the “final deadline”

Citing a report from The Wall Street Journal on the 23rd, the newspaper said that the U.S. Marine Corps’ 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the amphibious warships it is aboard will arrive in the Middle East on the 27th. The report noted that this day is exactly the “final deadline” reset by U.S. President Trump for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for Iran.

The report quoted two U.S. officials as saying that the “New Orleans” amphibious landing ship, the “Tripoli” amphibious assault ship, and more than 2,000 members of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit will enter the area of responsibility of U.S. Central Command in charge of operations in the Middle East on the 27th, but it would still take several days to reach the Strait of Hormuz.

Global oil prices plunge sharply

On the 24th, international oil prices rose sharply at one point. WTI May crude oil futures settled at $92.35 per barrel, up 4.79%; Brent May crude oil futures settled at $104.49 per barrel, up 4.55%. However, after news reports that the U.S. is seeking a one-month ceasefire to advance negotiations with Iran, both U.S. and Brent crude fell sharply and erased earlier gains.

International precious metals rose into the close. Spot gold finished up 1.48%, at $4,473.25 per ounce; spot silver rose 3.08%, at $71.29 per ounce.

LPG futures plunge more than 6%

On the 24th during China’s night session, the main LPG futures contract fell by more than 6%, leading the market lower. A reporter from Futures Daily learned during interviews that amid supply shocks triggered by geopolitical conflicts and pressure on crude oil costs, the liquefied petroleum gas market is experiencing intense games between bullish and bearish factors.

Within a traditional analytical framework, LPG, as associated gas of crude oil, has a price highly correlated with crude oil. An upward move in crude oil prices would directly lift the CP pricing of global LPG. In this round of trading, compared with crude oil futures, LPG futures have been stronger and more resistant to declines. Zhao Ruoqing, a senior research analyst at Galaxy Futures, said the key lies in the certainty and extent to which its fundamentals are impacted being higher than that of crude oil.

“Before this round of Middle East geopolitical conflict, Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah NGL processing facility announced force majeure due to a malfunction, leading to a reduction in LPG supply in the Middle East. After the geopolitical conflict broke out, disruptions to logistics directly triggered supply panic in the Asian market. After the conflict escalated, energy facilities became direct targets of attack. The Par(s) gas field in Iran was hit, directly affecting the output of associated LPG. By contrast, crude oil has pipeline detours and stockpiling solutions, meaning supply-side elasticity is greater than that of LPG, resulting in a more resilient price for LPG on the trading board.” Zhao Ruoqing said.

Shixiaohan, Director of Chemical Research and Development at Lake View Futures, said that LPG futures traded out an independent trend, showing that it is influenced not only by crude oil prices, but also by its own fundamental factors.

“In the past week, strikes on energy facilities amid the Middle East geopolitical conflict have become increasingly frequent. Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field, which is the core of Iran’s natural gas supply. As a retaliation, Iran again attacked Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial base, which affected 20% of global natural gas supply. Nearly 90% of LPG in the Middle East comes from associated gas from oil and gas fields, so a decline in oil and gas production will lead to a decline in LPG production. In addition, on March 17, the Galena Parka port in the U.S. slowed loading speed due to equipment failure, causing sailings to be delayed by about one week; the impact will last until the first half of April. This terminal accounts for 20% of U.S. LPG export volume, and more than half of cargo flows to Asia.” Shixiaohan said.

How the market prices geopolitical conflicts often involves a switch from “expectations” to “reality.” A reporter learned in interviews that the impact of this round of geopolitical conflict on the supply side is no longer confined to sentiment; it has already turned into tangible supply losses.

Shixiaohan explained that at the end of February, after the joint attack by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz. About 24% of the world’s LPG sea-borne trade needs to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with destinations mainly India and China. In addition, Qatar, the UAE, and Iran are the top three LPG exporters in the Middle East. When their oil and gas facilities are targeted, it means there is a risk of interruptions to supply over the medium to long term.

“China has a relatively high dependence on LPG resources from the Middle East. As the geopolitical conflict further escalates, the market worries that the risk of supply cuts in the later period will increase. Currently, some import terminals have started implementing limited quantities or stopping sales.” Zhao Ruoqing said. Geopolitical premiums directly raise import costs through a “freight + premium” model. Meanwhile, a big rise in crude oil prices and natural gas prices on the cost side also supports LPG prices.

However, Shixiaohan reminded that China’s LPG import cargo sources account for about 12% of total supply, so tightening on the import side provides an upward driver for domestic trading prices, but the strength is weaker than in the overseas market.

Shixiaohan further said that China’s LPG downstream demand is mainly for chemical needs, and combustion demand accounts for less than 40%. Currently, combustion demand is gradually entering a low season. Chemical demand is mainly affected by unit profits of processing plants. Against the backdrop of tighter Middle East supply, profits of chemical plants deteriorate, which will limit the upside of LPG prices. In the future, it will be important to watch the status of LPG plant shutdowns.

In Zhao Ruoqing’s view, the first variable for the outlook is the duration and intensity of the geopolitical conflict. Key factors include the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz and whether energy facilities such as those in Qatar have suffered further damage. At the same time, the replenishment timing of U.S. supply is also critical to easing supply tightness.

“From downstream demand, currently LPG companies’ inventories are still acceptable and utilization rates have not dropped significantly, but demand declines caused by high import costs and lack of feedstock still need to be watched closely. Once geopolitical risks fade, market logic will switch back to pricing based on cost-profit and domestic fundamentals, and at that time the prices on the board will face pressure to correct.” Zhao Ruoqing said.

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