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【US Stock Futures】US Employment Improves, Dow Futures Slightly Down
Hong Kong and US stock markets were closed for the holiday on Friday, but the market was still focused on employment data. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the US unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, and nonfarm payrolls surged by 178k. However, 35k of that was because doctors returned to their jobs after the end of a doctors’ strike; excluding this factor, employment still increased by 143k people. And January was revised up to 160k, while February was revised down to 133k.
After Trump blew up an Iranian bridge, he threatened to blow up more infrastructure, and Iran retaliated by targeting US facilities in Gulf states.
Iran and Oman are drafting an agreement to “monitor” transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but there has been no further update. However, through negotiations with Iran, some ships have been granted permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Dow Jones futures fell by 103 points to 46,629 points; S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% to 6,603 points; Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4% to 24,129 points.
$1 below is Thursday’s US stock market====
Fears of war escalation; WTI crude rises 11%—pushing above 111; Brent Oil; Dow’s decline narrows to 61 points
US President Donald Trump said he would escalate the war. The market focused on the Strait of Hormuz continuing to be closed, affecting crude oil supply and pushing up oil prices. NYMEX May WTI futures surged by more than 10%, rising above $111—marking the first time in recent years that it has overtaken Brent oil.
See also US stocks at close:
US stocks had separate developments on Thursday. The Dow’s decline narrowed and the market clawed back more than 600 points by the close, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fluctuated and stabilized. At the close, the Dow Jones was at 46,504 points, down 61 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.11%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.18%.
Market news indicated that Iran is drafting a transit agreement for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, and the market was watching whether the Strait of Hormuz transit fees would apply. US President Trump said he would strike Iran “extremely harshly.” Expectations for a ceasefire in the Middle East in the near term fell through.
NYMEX crude oil futures surged as much as 13.83%, hitting a high of $113.97, and closed at $111.54—still up 11.4%. Brent crude oil futures rose 7.78% and closed at $109.03.
On Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that Phase 3 of the 90th round of military operations, “True Commitment -4,” has begun, with strikes carried out against AWS cloud data centers of Amazon in Bahrain.
Amazon’s share price fell as much as 2.7% at one point and closed down 0.4%. Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries were about 358k electric vehicles, below expectations, and the stock price fell 5.4%.
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The Kremlin said that Russian President Putin discussed the Middle East crisis with Saudi Arabia’s crown prince. The two sides said the Middle East situation has a negative impact on global energy security, emphasizing the importance of Russia and Saudi working together under the “OPEC+” framework to stabilize the global oil market.
Gold prices fell 2.4%, with New York gold futures at $4,695.
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As concerns about the conflict continued to grow, the US dollar index jumped 0.4% to 100.02 temporarily. US long-term Treasury yields turned lower; US 10-year yields were around 4.311%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its annual assessment report on the United States, saying that the Fed would only cut rates once by year-end. Under the premise of pursuing a larger-scale monetary easing policy, it is because the outlook for the labor market deteriorates significantly and inflation pressures have not increased.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that lowering reserve requirements is one of the ways to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed can reduce banks’ demand for reserves through regulatory changes, thereby shrinking the balance sheet.
Australian National Bank FX strategist Rodrigo Catril said there are risks in Trump’s strategy of “escalate first and then de-escalate.” It seems the market is focusing on the fact that the war hasn’t ended yet. The US is seeking to escalate the situation and hopes to force Iran to reach an agreement.
Pictet Asset Management in Switzerland said that the Middle East conflict and energy crisis have cast a shadow over the outlook for global stock markets. Therefore, the firm has reduced stock allocations back to the benchmark level in most markets. China stocks are an exception: with strong commodity reserves, sufficient alternative energy supply, and policy support, it still maintains a constructive stance. Emerging market stocks have been cut to neutral.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates—see: next page
Intraday trend:
【18:10】Trump’s remarks increased market worries; Dow futures fell 483 points; Nasdaq futures fell 1.7%; WTI crude oil rose 7%; gold prices fell 3%
【14:00】Dow futures fell 555 points to 46,251; S&P futures fell 91 points to 6,526; Nasdaq futures fell 413 points, or 1.7%, to 23,781.
【14:00】Oil prices steadied after a rise. NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 5.1% to $105.24; Brent futures rose 6% to $107.23; gold prices fell more than 3%. New York gold futures were $4,659, and spot gold was $4,605.
【11:53】【Artemis II】After half a century, it’s back to the Moon—NASA’s Artemis 2 crewed rocket launches
【11:30】【Gold price trend】After Trump’s remarks, spot gold prices turned down 1%; “Basically describes the conflict as a military victory instead of a ceasefire statement”
【11:11】【US stock analysis】After Trump’s remarks, Dow futures fell 400 points. Analysis: Short-term hopes for a ceasefire may cool; insufficient momentum for a mid-term rebound
【10:28】【Japanese yen trend】Japanese yen at 4.91 per Hong Kong dollar; UBS warns: If oil supply disruptions continue to push up oil prices, the Japanese yen against the US dollar could fall to 175 by year-end
【09:56】【Iran crisis】Trump’s remarks: Achieved an overwhelming victory; the war is about to end; vows to strike “extremely harshly,” sending them back to the Stone Age
【08:06】【AI】OpenAI “Not a fragrance”?—OpenAI’s shares worth billions in the secondary market with no buyers; $2 billion in cash poised to invest in rival Anthropic
【06:57】【New stock IPO】SpaceX secretly files for an IPO application; valuation $1.75 trillion
【06:34】【Iran crisis】Before Trump’s speech—Iranian president’s open letter questions whether the war is in the interest of Americans (ongoing update)
$1 below is April 1 US stock market====
Wednesday: Trump said Iran requested a ceasefire; Iran called it false news; Dow rose 224 points; crude oil futures fell
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran is willing to end the war as long as it is ensured that it will not be attacked again. US President Donald Trump, according to reports, also signaled a ceasefire, intending to end military action against Iran while the Strait of Hormuz has not yet reopened. The market expected both sides to deploy ceasefire arrangements, and US stocks jumped on Tuesday—Dow’s gains at one point expanded to 1167 points; oil prices fell.
At the close, the Dow Jones rose 1125 points to 46,341; the S&P 500 rose 2.91%, and the Nasdaq surged 3.83%.
See US stocks at close:
The focus stocks showed that large tech stocks continued to rebound. Nvidia (US: NVDA) rose 5.6%, and Tesla (Tesla) rose 4.6%. Meta (US: META) closed up 6.7% and announced it would invest $2 billion in chipmaker Marvell, driving Marvell up 12.8%.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released that it would target companies and organizations related to the Middle East region tied to 18 US high-tech and artificial intelligence companies.
US President Donald Trump posted on the social platform Truth Social, saying, “For all the countries that cannot obtain aviation fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz—for example, the UK that refuses to participate in Iran’s ‘decapitation operation’—I have a suggestion for you: First, buy from the United States; our oil supply is abundant. Second, muster your courage and go to the Strait of Hormuz to seize it. You must start learning to be self-reliant; the United States will no longer help you the way you didn’t help us back then.”
He pointed out, “Iran has basically been destroyed. The hardest part is over.” He urged those “spectators” to obtain oil on their own.
Foreign media reported that Trump told his aides that even if the Strait of Hormuz is basically closed, he is still willing to end the US military operation against Iran, raising market hopes for the conflict, which has lasted for about a month, to end.
NYMEX crude oil closed down 1.46% to $101.38; spot gold price had risen as much as 3.9%, reaching $4,686.9.
The US dollar index was slightly weak at 99.88 temporarily. Fed Chair Powell hinted that rate hikes may not be necessary in the near term; US long-term Treasury yields kept falling steadily. The 10-year Treasury yield was temporarily at 4.321%.
Russia’s ambassador to Iran, Alexey Dedov, said in an interview with Russian media on Tuesday that Iran’s top leader Mojtaba Khamenei is currently in Iran and is not in Russia for treatment as some rumors have said.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates—see: next page
Intraday trend:
【20:55】Trump: Countries that haven’t helped the US in the future should learn how to obtain oil on their own; Dow futures up 509 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%; spot gold up 1%
【18:00】Dow futures up 407 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.8%; spot gold up 1%
【15:00】Dow futures up 321 points to 45,786; S&P futures up 39 points to 6,427; Nasdaq futures up 132 points, or 0.6%, to 23,272.
【15:00】Oil prices held steady. NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 0.1% to $102.97; Brent futures rose 0.7% to $107.48. Gold prices continued to climb. NYMEX gold rose 0.7% to $4,590; spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,558.
【14:06】【US stock analysis】Powell hints no rate hike in the short term—US stocks rise first then pull back. Analysis: Rate-hike odds were overestimated; if fighting cools in the short term, the S&P 500 could return to 7,000
【12:08】【New stock IPO】Nasdaq rolls out a “quick inclusion” rule—paving the way for unicorns like SpaceX to move quickly into the Nasdaq 100 index
【10:48】【Gold price trend】Gold prices continue to rise by more than 1%. Analysis: Powell eases rate-hike expectations + Trump reportedly willing to end the war even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz
【08:03】【US rate policy】Powell said long-term inflation expectations remain under control and emphasized that monetary policy is in a good position
$1 below is March 30 US stock market====
Monday: The Iranian parliament approved charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz; WTI is above 100; Nasdaq turns down 0.7%; Dow up 49 points, having previously risen as much as 459 points
Iran’s Islamic parliament approved a bill on Monday to levy transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers could be charged up to $2 million.
US President Donald Trump claimed that negotiations with Iran had made significant progress, but warned that if the Strait of Hormuz does not restore passage, the US might attack Iran’s energy infrastructure. WTI surged above 100 and the Nasdaq turned lower.
See US stocks at close:
On Monday, US stocks saw separate developments. After the Dow opened higher and gains expanded to as much as 459 points, it briefly turned down 109 points. It closed up 49 points at 45,216; the S&P 500 fell back 0.39%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.73%.
NYMEX crude oil rose 3.25% to $102.88 and closed above the $100 level. Brent May crude oil closed up 0.18% at $112.78.
Activist investor Bill Ackman said the two major mortgage entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had plummeted, sparking a surge in the stock prices—up 51% and 47% respectively. US aluminum rose 8.2%.
On Monday (the 30th), Fed Chair Powell said in a public speech that the Fed’s response to the Iran war largely depends on how the conflict affects Americans’ inflation expectations. He said people often overlook any kind of supply shock. The key, however, is to closely monitor inflation expectations. The Fed faces risks in its dual mandate, including maintaining price stability and achieving maximum employment. At present, the Fed’s monetary policy is appropriate to maintain a wait-and-see stance, emphasizing that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will achieve the 2% inflation target.
He also noted that there are well-known long and unstable lags in how monetary policy is implemented. Therefore, by the time the effects of a tightening policy show up, the oil price shock may already be over, and the remarks may or may not imply a rate hike in the short term.
On Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social, saying the US is conducting serious talks with a brand-new, more rational Iranian administration to end military operations in Iran. He also mentioned that negotiations have made major progress, but it is not yet clear whether both sides are actually in talks.
Trump said, “They agreed to most of our demands. How could they not?” He also said, “We will put forward some other demands as well.” However, he refused to disclose what concessions Iran has made specifically.
Hong Kong stocks and ADR market updates—see: next page
Intraday trend:
【23:10】Powell: Monetary policy has lag effects; hints a rate hike may not be needed in the short term; oil jumps 2%; Dow up 320 points
【21:30】Trump: If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, he will blow up all Iranian power plants and oil wells; oil jumps 2%; Dow up 396 points
【19:55】Trump: If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, he will blow up all Iranian power plants and oil wells again; oil jumps 2%; Dow futures up 244 points
【18:15】Dow futures up 153 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%. This week focuses on Middle East conflict developments plus nonfarm data
【18:10】【Iran crisis】Iran confirms the death of the Revolutionary Guard Navy commander; denies any direct negotiations (ongoing update)
【13:26】Dow futures up 13 points to 45,437; S&P futures up 6 points to 6,418; Nasdaq futures up 22 points, or nearly 0.1%, to 23,351.
【13:26】NYMEX WTI crude oil up 1.3% to $100.98; Brent futures up 2.3% to $115.17. In gold, the latest steadies. NYMEX gold up 0.2% to $4,534; spot gold up 0.4% to $4,512.
【12:19】【European Central Bank】Member: Targeting 2% inflation; it’s too early to talk about rate hikes in the present; warns of systemic risk in the US financial system
【10:58】【Iran crisis】Trump says the US may seize Iran’s oil and take over the export hub of Halkar Island
【10:21】【Japanese yen trend】Jun Muramura warns it will take “bold action”; 4.9 yen per 100 Hong Kong dollars
【09:30】【Oil price trend】Schroders expects high oil prices to last longer, though the pain level is only half of the peak in the 2007 crisis
【09:17】【Gold price trend】Gold prices posted their first weekly rise since the Middle East war erupted. But gold has fallen again this week
【08:33】【Iran crisis】Escalation in Iran’s war pushes oil prices higher; Japan and South Korea’s stock markets also experienced “Black Monday”
【07:30】【Iran crisis】Oil prices rise another 2%; Pakistan: In the coming days, hold Iran-US talks; Iran allows 20 ships to pass the strait; Trump considers deploying ground forces (ongoing update)
【07:30】US President Trump said he would extend the bombing of Iranian power plants for another 10 days. It did not ease market nerves; instead, fears grew that the war dragging on would affect oil supply and intensify the global economic shock. US stocks fell last Friday. The Dow closed at 45,166, down 793; the S&P fell 1.67%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.15%.
See US stocks at close:
US stock market highlights last week—see: [US stocks at close]. Iran says nuclear facilities were hit by an attack; fears the war could expand; Dow plunged 793 points; oil prices rose again; US dollar index reclaimed the 100 level