April 3rd Review

These actions are for my personal record only—risk is enormous. Don’t follow along.

Today’s trades

Morning session

The sell-off hit the board, then it pulled back; I sold in batches Xinzhonggang.

No trades this afternoon

Current positions

No position (all cash)

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Index sentiment

The index moved within a range and drifted lower all day, with no obvious rebound. Turnover was 1.66 trillion, and trading volume kept shrinking. In terms of chart pattern, the index has two consecutive declines, with a possible second bottom. Overall market sentiment is sluggish.

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Data summary

1. There were 36 limit-up boards. The number of limit-ups is at a low point—up from yesterday’s (27), but it’s still at a low point.

Limit-up trend: 62-53-57-27-36; the number of limit-ups is in a second low.

Indicator notes: below 50 is low, 50-90 is mid-range, above 90 is high.

2. Number of consecutive-limit boards: 12-8-5-6-4. The number of consecutive-limit boards keeps hitting a low point.

Indicator notes: below 10 is low, 10-20 is mid-range, above 20 is high.

3. There were 24 limit-down boards. The number of limit-downs has been running in the high zone, and the count has jumped significantly compared with yesterday (5).

Limit-down trend: 10-1-6-5-24; the losing-money effect expands rapidly.

Indicator notes: below 3 is low, 3-6 is mid-range, above 6 is high.

4. Limit-up board sealing rate: 75%.

Sealing-rate trend: 78%-76%-60%-60%-75%. The sealing rate has entered the mid-range.

Indicator notes: below 70% is low, 70%-80% is mid-range, above 80% is high.

5. Up/down count: 716:4746. Advancers are at a low point.

Advancers trend: 2867-1011-4495-1052-716.

Indicator notes: down count above 4000 is low, advancers above 4000 is high.

6. Market breadth (market height): 5-4-4-5-6. A space-height breakthrough above the 5-board suppression.

7. Data recap

Second low point in data; the structure shows expectations of a rebound.

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Main market theme: none

Side-branch hot theme: pharmaceuticals

Intraday hot themes: pharmaceuticals, computing power

Consecutive-limit leader: Tianjin Yaoye (6)

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Market milestones:

First board: pharmaceutical leaders with volume expansion + elastic leaders breaking the board (moving off the consecutive-limit status)

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Today’s consecutive-limit boards that broke then reversed (re-entry attempts):

None

Yesterday’s consecutive-limit boards that broke then reversed (re-entry attempts):

None

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Sentiment cycle analysis

Big cycle position: risk-avoidance cycle

Small cycle position: sentiment at a second low point

Losing-money effect: medium

Cycle height: 8

Space breakout leader (龙) + electricity main upswing leader: Huadian Liaoning (8)

Electricity trend leader: Huadian Energy

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Observations on the market

1. Low sentiment

For two consecutive days the data has been at low points. This is already the second time this year we’ve seen a similar setup, so in my reviews I’ve kept telling everyone to focus on defense. The current market is a classic “price-cut (halfway) / halving” market—controlling your hands is the top priority.

At the moment there’s no sustained-hot theme on the board. Even in pharmaceuticals, aside from the leaders, the back rows are also hard to do—there’s very poor tradeability. Today there were 24 limit-down boards, indicating the losing-money effect is expanding quickly and risk-avoidance sentiment is dominating.

Right now, actually holding cash is the best strategy. Once an opportunity appears, having cash lets you take the initiative.

2. Market milestones

Today Tianjin Yaoye saw a second surge in volume at a high level, and the elastic leader Xinghui Huancai broke its consecutive-limit status. Theoretically, this forms a “first-board” milestone.

At the same time, Xinghui Huancai broke through the abnormal-move suppression; after the holiday, watch whether there’s negative feedback. If the breakout succeeds, and combined with the double low points, after the holiday you can focus on today’s first boards and next holiday’s first boards.

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Personal holdings

No position (all cash)

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Review of yesterday’s trading plan

No plan—focus on defense. From the chart, my prediction of sentiment direction was correct. Not losing money means, essentially, winning.

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Tomorrow’s trading plan

From 1 to 2 boards

Cuieiwei Shares

Mid-cap stock; the share price is generally average. It has a cross-border payments concept. The RMB payment stimulus comes from transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz.

I choose it for a few reasons:

First, it’s a new-theme angle for a node. Even though today there wasn’t successful follow-through/activation, there’s a possibility of activation over the weekend, so I can prepare in advance.

Second, the quality of the buy order (limit) is high. After a back-close (rebound to limit-up), there isn’t any obvious abnormal order漏单.

Third, the index is rebounding, and financial-related stocks may see some action.

In terms of execution: on Monday, there will definitely be a turnover expectation, so mainly focus on whether the theme gets activated over the weekend. A higher-open of 7+ is beyond expectations.

This stock is about trading the expectation gap, so you definitely need a message that’s beyond expectations—like Monday’s first board appearing as a one-word limit-up assisted by the market. If the weekend activation is lukewarm/not exciting, be cautious about chasing/re-entry.

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Notes

Please read the article carefully. Since the review has already covered the content you’re asking about, if you ask again, I won’t answer.

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Disclaimer

The above tickers are not recommendations—only for my review. Buying and selling are your own decisions; you bear the risk!

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Finally, please like and support with tips!