[Red Envelope] 4.3 Review; volume shrank and declined to 1.6 trillion, the market reached a high of six boards. How should we view the post-holiday market trend?

The market once again shows a sell-off with shrinking volume—this week’s five trading days, three of them saw more than 4,000 companies decline, one day weakened then turned strong, and one day had a strong rebound with no follow-through the next day. Trading volume also reached what is currently its lowest level. Last year’s holiday “black swan” negative news, and today the capital is also on autopilot to grab the “run away” bucket. Throughout the day the market was rather sluggish—limit-down and limit-up were inverted. The market returned to an icy low point. After the holiday, will you take a bullish or bearish stance on what you’re holding?[Taoziba]
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The original intention of vita sharing on Taoxian:
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The best thing a person can do
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is to help another person know more.
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During your journey of enlightenment, you truly did come to understand a lot. Then let it become a tangible and felt work—so you can spread it, help others, and make it your language.
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What’s truly worth doing is to write—create—shoot—and express… in the form of words, or in the form of video, what you understand, what you’ve realized, and what you want to convey.**
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By using the way you think is most suitable for you, dissect and present your inner world, then throw it into this noisy reality—so that it can be perceived, thought about, remembered, and recognized in the collision of souls between people, and become the imprint of your spiritual life!**
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I. Market sentiment cycle

1. Index environment, thematic execution
   Today the market chose a shrinking-volume gap-up, followed by an outright resistance-free震荡 decline. By the close it returned again to 3880. Last Friday and this Monday saw two consecutive days of weakness turning into strength on the left-side capital; this week’s follow-through saw their desire to cash out start to intensify. On Tuesday the market surged then fell back—essentially because profit-taking started to cash out. On Wednesday it directly produced a strong rebound. Everyone here understands that rebound—it was pushed back by developments from overseas, not a repair made by our market on its own. The day’s data was also extremely bleak. Across the whole market, there were only around 50 limit-ups. By Thursday, it started shrinking volume and heading downward again, continuing to return to the ice-point data. By the whole day, there were only a little over 30 limit-ups. As time came to today, continuing the “second ice,” with limit-up/limit-down inverted again: limit-downs were even more than limit-ups. The “losing money” effect can be said to have kept expanding. The 3900-point level has never held. Many bearish funds have started guessing that the index will step on a second foot.

Looking back to today’s intraday tape: after a shrinking-volume, slightly higher open, it immediately oscillated downward. The direction for抢修复 was commercial aerospace, including broad tech. After those themes opened strong in the morning, they basically had no resistance and gradually兑现. This also caused the index to start moving lower. Before 10 a.m., you could say there was essentially no capital willing to take over. In the earlier confluence medical sector, the height of連板 broke through—but instead it “capped” the trend strength fairly tightly. Most trend stocks, upon opening, chose straight-up oscillation. Since funds couldn’t find direction intraday, naturally there was no desire to press further.

After 10 a.m., the index pulled back. The confluence then was photolithography machines, fiber optics, and the like; other themes had basically no highlights. The only direction that moved meaningfully in the afternoon was computing power, but by the close-end capital also started to drop, lowering expectations for the tape—there was a “lying flat” attitude. This fits the pre-holiday funds’ state. In the late session, the medical direction also began to fall back, but Tianjin Pharma was still sealed dead tight all day! With rotation never stopping—at the high end up to 6 boards and down to 2 boards—this continues to show a “gap”走势. Next week’s focus is still mainly medical!

2. Index cycle
   The support for this index wave is the 3800 level. And this cycle is still starting from 3.24. If 3800 is directly broken afterward, everyone also needs to pay attention: this cycle might also end. So everything must be based on 3800 as the strong support. Whether it’s a new cycle in the medical direction or other direction’s side lines—if 3800 can’t be held, everything afterward will collapse. After the holiday, this will be the first anchored reference point. As long as the index continues to move down in oscillation, at this time you need to put risk first and cannot rashly go back in to chase consensus. Today, although the medical direction showed divergence—with the height opened up by Tianjin Pharma—next week the trend must be strengthened too, ideally coordinated with the index. That way the risk will be lower!

New cycle
（1）3.24 marks the start of the index bottoming out ～ up to now: style has changed. Breakthrough via連板; trends weaken. After the holiday, if trends can’t strengthen, then you need to switch.
The trend core names: Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, Jiu’an Medical, Wanbangde, Kylin Pharma, Menovo Pharmaceutical. Rotation strengthening is the main thing. In the morning, Menovo Pharmaceutical was the strongest; at the close-end, Wanbangde and Jiu’an rotated and surged; Kylin Pharma consolidated under water all day at low levels. The strongest all day was Shuanglu Pharmaceutical, and it is also one of the cores of this continued confluence.

Side-line themes: commercial aerospace, broad tech, the Strait, sports, etc. Aerospace diverges; broad tech repairs, but it also belongs to local fiber optics. The Strait and sports both sold off sharply.

Old cycle
（2）The power sector: the second wave from 3.16 ～ after the confirmation of a top at 3.27, the withdrawal phase. The late-bloom “补涨梯队” peaked at the 3-board, and randomness increased.

II. Analysis of core individual stocks
（1）Medical
先于龙美诺华
Although today it actively repaired, due to the reason that breakthrough via連板 happened, the trend direction remained rather sluggish. This stock’s positioning in the earlier phase is that it’s a trend that stays ahead of Long. The action it needs to take is to lift it up every day. If the capital can do arbitrage in convertibles, then as long as the regular shares get pulled up, there will be expectations as well. It also suits friends who like to do T. After the holiday, when it comes back, this stock still needs to be handled from the perspective of rotation. Even though it fell back quite a bit at the close, it doesn’t mean there’s no expectation. As long as you understand where the capital’s game-theory logic for this stock is, you’ll be fine!

Emotion core: Tianjin Pharma
The main control keeps eating alone. But once it breaks through, that is extremely strong support for the market height. It’s also one of the small “emotion stocks” in this round of sustained confluence. As mentioned earlier, in this round you need to prioritize height. Trend is a disclosed style of capital. Height is an expectation gap. Unfortunately, Tianjin Pharma didn’t manage to create enough divergence opportunities for market synergy. Going forward, you need to look at the capital’s attitude! If it were to run in a “flow” manner for a wave, then most likely a break of the board would mean a sell-off. However, the medical direction had quite a lot of divergence near the close. Next week it still needs to be upgraded and push through—only then can it reflect back to get the sector repaired!

Trend core: Shuanglu Pharmaceutical
This part of capital was created by following a “Huadian Energy” template. The走势 is basically going along with Huadian Energy’s move. The turning point for this stock now is more like Huadian Energy’s turning point around 3.16. Since it’s a trend, then the anchoring point going forward is the 5-day line. The first touch is a highlight. There’s nothing particularly valuable to analyze short term—just anchor it well.

Trend core: Wanbangde
In yesterday’s recap, we talked about the need to control deviation from the value area for this stock. But from the intraday, most capital still was doing T within it. Toward the close, affected by sector divergence, it also had a small sell-off, but the impact was not large. Short term it still needs to rely on the 5-day line. For these trend stocks overall, going forward you need to pay more attention to连板 height. If连板 keeps pushing upward, it may cap the trend’s strength. But personally, I think in most cases, the trend连板 will strengthen together. Wanbangde is the anchor within the trend.

Trend core: Kylin Pharma, Jiu’an Medical
Kylin Pharma is actually easy to understand in terms of positioning. Going forward, as long as the sector has expectations, when high-position Wanbangde starts to run out of steam, the capital will choose to switch. Objectively, when looking at the medical sector, the trend-side “making money effect” is bigger than that of连板. After all, it looks like it reached 6 boards, but in fact it hasn’t been tested by market synergy. After the trend core runs out, there’s a chance it will switch again, and then the trend will run another wave with stronger identification. Jiu’an Medical is also something to anchor on the 5-day line!

Elastic rotation: Lai Mei Pharmaceutical, old Long Shu Tai Shen oscillating; after a sell-off in Li Nuo Pharma, it pulled back.

III. Sector analysis

1. Medical. In the current stage, medical is one of the most valuable directions for the market. As long as a “dip” appears intraday, it is actually a point to buy divergence and pay attention. Over these two days, even though the sell-off has been pretty exaggerated, careful friends can see that the medical direction doesn’t have an overly dramatic “losing money effect.” Only the names that haven’t formed a clear identification in the market have had their expectations reduced by the market. The sell-offs also mostly come from last year’s old Long, so it doesn’t have too much impact on the sector. Look forward, don’t look back—this is an aesthetic standard that short-term players must have. First-board medical continues to assist; elasticity also rotates and pulls up a stock each day to fill out the ladder. The key points after Qingming are (1) trend repair and (2) consensus at high positions. After the holiday, high positions must go through market testing: whether it’s continued selling off or it continues to be taken over—just wait and see!

IV. Holiday thought questions
Using the medical direction as an example: how would an upside market versus a downside market impact the sector differently, and what would the respective炒作 paths look like?
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V. This week’s approach
Taking advantage of today being Friday, tomorrow is the Qingming holiday, so we’ll summarize this week’s approach based on this timing—especially regarding the medical direction:
（1）When the broader market stopped falling at 3.24, that was the moment we noticed this direction’s key “node opportunity.” In the previous wave, Menovo Pharmaceutical didn’t get timely attention—mainly due to market environment factors. In every wave of行情, missing some core names is normal. After all, the market is dynamic and can’t simply move according to your own expectations. It’s something I believe everyone can understand about the market environment at the time.
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（2）And this week, in combination with the broader market data: across five trading days, three days had more than 4,300 stocks decline. At today’s near close, the number of declining stocks reached 4,700. If you set aside the medical direction and don’t look at it—if you’re not the “Long over Long” types and chose to participate in other directions—then the “losing money effect” this week was explosive. Even if on Wednesday the market repaired and on Thursday whether it could take away profits—those are all unknowns. From a rear-view mirror perspective, staying in cash and not acting is still the most correct choice.**
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（3）Back to the essence of the medical direction: why are participation points so blurry? This week was also analyzed for you every day. What is “certainty”? It must be based on market synergy. But when you look at medical, most of the core names are “eating alone” in terms of how they move. And as for “Long over Long,” we treat the market’s absolute core as the anchor: the buy point in Tianjin Pharma. On 3.31, Menovo Pharmaceutical sold off—yet the mid-cap stock somehow kept to itself. Remember: Menovo Pharmaceutical is positioned ahead of the Long. At this time, the internal funds basically confirmed the controlling role of the庄. The next day there was no real buy point. Then on 4.1, the market went into a repair; the ladder’s “gap” became clear, with 明牌接爆量 expectations. Once you do the buy point wrong, it can easily start at 10 points. vita would definitely not go. When the market fermented for “four to five,” the heat was too high and it top-printed with a one-word limit-up. Today it gave expectations for high-volume turnover, but the timing absolutely didn’t give the chance. Overall, there was no thought of missing this stock. A real “true dragon” must go through market divergence and continuously eat alone. If you participate in that, the portion of luck is already over half. It’s better for me to just buy a lottery ticket.**
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We didn’t act this week—keep looking forward!**
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Even if the whole market is full of noise, I keep to myself and stay in a state of independence—waiting is the norm. Quietly wait for the true dragon to dawn!**

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