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After the leading stock breaks down, how to buy high and sell low, and seize the rebound?
A trader without a trading pattern is the one who becomes fixated and obsessed with cutting high and buying low, and chasing pullback-for-upticks.
Because the underlying logic of both “cutting high and buying low” and “chasing pullback-for-upticks” is simply the logical stock-picking trading pattern; the deeper backdrop is prediction.
First, logical stock-picking is workable. As early as 2020, after Dao’ on shares and Xinlong Holdings, when products like Zai Sheng Technology appeared as pullback-for-upticks leaders, because I personally participated, I recognize that.
But relying on logical stock-picking to cut high and buy low to chase pullback-for-upticks has a big problem: predicting the turning points.
For example, although everyone is discussing Jin kongs power and Guangxi Energy the most right now, the real turning-point stocks are Shen Nan Electric A and Guangxi Energy. Jin kongs power never should have been in the discussion range. On this point, I actually don’t understand why most bloggers’ understanding of Jin kongs power has turned out like this—as if this stock has so much potential; that having any premium is already good enough.
I’m not sure how everyone defines a pullback-for-upticks leader, but in my view Xineng Taishan is a pullback-for-upticks play. I don’t know whether it’s a “leader” or not, and it doesn’t have much potential either.
The above is my personal view; whether it’s correct or not doesn’t really matter, because what I want to say is that whether it’s a turning-point stock or a pullback-for-upticks leader, there are only a few such stocks. And on Friday—Xineng Taishan and Guangxi Energy—you dare to just go straight in with a buy limit order at the top of the book? Only gamblers would do that. So a bunch of people ended up doing Jin kongs power.
If you don’t do these stocks, even if your understanding is even better, it doesn’t stop you from getting wrecked.
At the end of the day, most people have a bit of experience, but they can’t read the order book.
On Wednesday I bought Liaoning Energy and Zhejiang Xineng. My expectation for Liaoning Energy was 5 boards, and for Zhejiang Xineng 4 boards. So Liaoning Energy could only open high and then get immediately snapped up—while Zhejiang Xineng would have room, and the power sector rally wouldn’t cool off. But Liaoning Energy opened flat and was below expectations—not that I mean it opened flat at a certain price, I mean its flat opening (lack of upside momentum) killed the boards on Zhejiang Xineng.
And Xineng Taishan kept pressing out with a one-word limit order. The capital already chose Xineng Taishan as the pullback-for-upticks leader. So Liaoning Energy and Zhejiang Xineng aren’t really “pullback-for-upticks” plays; they’re just normal follow-through with the trend, so you should lower your expectations.
At times like this, you should consider that when the power sector is fading, Liaoning Energy needs to break away, and because Zhejiang Xineng has less potential, it’s actually safer.
So for Liaoning Energy, I exited straight at the opening auction and kept Zhejiang Xineng. But Zhejiang Xineng opened and then sold off—so I didn’t move.
Later both stocks kept selling off, and even Zhejiang Xineng hit the daily limit down. That’s wrong, so I stayed put.
At a lower level, Hunan Development topped the board. I used a small position to board, because on that day there was only that and Yue D ianli A I could do. And since Yue D ianli A opened with a plunge, I could only do Hunan Development. After that, when Yue D ianli A rallied toward near the daily limit up, it basically meant Liaoning Energy and Zhejiang Xineng would definitely flip back to positive.
When Liaoning Energy touched the limit board, it was already weak—going to board then is also wrong. Boarding is destined to get you chopped. When Zhejiang Xineng followed the rally, you should have sold it off.
Near the close, Huadian Liao neng blew up the limit board—wiping out the expectation. It confirmed that day was “extremely cold.” The next day, even if it repaired, it would only confirm the “extreme cold,” which is the escape window for power stocks.
And on that day, the two top-board stocks—Hunan Development and Xineng Taishan—basically confirmed that Xineng Taishan was a pullback-for-upticks leader. Hunan Development has room, so it would surge higher; you should sell it off.
As the power sector cooled, capital chose to force plays into Minovo Pharmaceuticals and Enjie shares. Since most capital had nothing to do, they went to do these two sectors at lower levels, and you saw two sectors—and related sectors—experience a broad-based rally as a transition.
Everything above is me talking nonsense; it might not be right. In short, the chart will tell you all the information. What you need to do is to trade the stocks you should be trading according to your pattern. And of course, if the market is wrong, it will also correct—for example, even if Zhejiang Xineng gets bought all the way down to the daily limit down, it will still definitely flip back up, because Yue D ianli A already told you it could flip back up.
If you don’t have a pattern, it’s a disaster: you buy every first board, chase leaders in the follow-through, chase pullback-for-upticks, and also do mean-reversion on old leaders—you’re too busy. So busy that you spend all day picking stocks and basically don’t have time to read the order book.
Talking nonsense too—also just another “grass cutting” (victim). Friends, after you’re done reading, just have a laugh and move on; keep the criticism light.