Spring planting demand supports the spot and futures markets in both cities, with policy ceilings and high supply pressure limiting the upward potential of urea.

Today, the domestic urea futures market opened low and moved high, showing an overall rebound trend. After a significant decline in the overall environment yesterday, a technical rebound trend has emerged today, while the continuous shortage of international urea has made it difficult for the domestic market’s emotional premium to be completely eliminated, and speculative funds from outside the industry still exist. From a fundamental perspective, it is currently the peak season for spring plowing fertilizers, and this week, corporate inventories have significantly decreased, further consolidating the foundation for the market’s rebound. However, the rebound space is still under multiple pressures: on the policy level, under the background of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices for spring plowing, the upward space for spot prices is limited; on the supply side, industry operating rates remain high, and supply pressure continues to exist. Overall, the rebound in urea futures today is more of a technical repair after the previous rapid decline. From a fundamental perspective, domestic daily production remains high, and the policy guidance price still exists, putting pressure on price increases; however, supported by strong demand during the peak spring plowing season, the short-term market may maintain a strong oscillation pattern. In the medium to long term, the industry’s high supply norm will remain the core factor restricting the upward space for prices. In summary, the main 05 contract is still dominated by the logic of peak season trading, with emotional support not yet dissipated, and the short-term market is expected to maintain strong operations. Future focus should be on the evolution of the Middle East situation, international energy price trends, and changes in domestic policies. (Feiduoduo)