The narrow Strait of Hormuz and the widening transatlantic divide

(Source: Xinhua Daily)

(Image source: CCTV News)

The Royal Thai Navy announced that a Thai cargo ship was attacked on March 11 while navigating in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. So far, 20 crew members have been rescued and taken to Oman for placement. (Sent by Xinhua)

 Faced with U.S. threats to pressure, many European countries said on the 16th that they would not take part in the Strait of Hormuz escort operation proposed by the U.S., bluntly saying, “This is not a war for Europe.” U.S. President Donald Trump complained that European allies “don’t know how to repay kindness.”

Analysts believe that Europe’s “non-cooperation” stems from domestic political pressure and the real considerations of avoiding security risks. It is also hoped that the warlike actions between the U.S. and Iran can be “morally separated” from Europe’s position. It can also be seen as a response to the Trump administration’s earlier, all kinds of “humiliation” of Europe. As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, the spillover effects, such as the escort issue and the situation in Ukraine, have become increasingly prominent, deepening the transatlantic rift.

“Not a war for Europe”

For several consecutive days, the United States has been pressuring European allies. On the 15th, Trump said that if NATO allies do not take action to help the U.S. ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open and clear, NATO would face a “very bleak future.” The next day, he complained that some allies are “not enthusiastic” about helping the U.S., implying that those allies—protected by the U.S.—are “ungrateful.”

On the 16th, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kallas, said that the conflict between the U.S. and Iran “is not a war for Europe,” and that “no one hopes to get pulled into this war on purpose.” EU member states have no intention of expanding the current “shield” escort operation in the Red Sea and the Gulf region to the Strait of Hormuz. Countries including Germany, Italy, and Spain have clearly stated that they will not dispatch warships to take part in the escort. Spain’s foreign minister and defense minister, in particular, directly labeled the U.S.’s military action against Iran as “illegal,” and clearly said Spain “will not join.”

France and the United Kingdom also separately expressed their refusal or a cautious stance. The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the French Navy will not go to the Strait of Hormuz, and that its current operations in the eastern Mediterranean follow a “defensive principle.” Britain, meanwhile, said that “the best and most thorough way” to achieve passage through the Strait of Hormuz is to end the conflict.

Why Europe is “not going along”

Analysts believe that Europe’s lukewarm response to the U.S. demand for escorting has three considerations.

First, Europe is unwilling to “foot the bill” for the trouble stirred up by the United States. The U.S. and Iran’s military action against Iran was not authorized by the UN Security Council, and it was launched suddenly during the diplomatic negotiation process. It has also caused widespread civilian casualties, including children, which has drawn widespread resentment from European people. Now that the U.S. sees that the fighting has led to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and higher oil prices, it wants to pull allies together to “escort” jointly; naturally, Europe does not want to share the costs with the U.S.

Second, European countries are unwilling to bear the military risks brought about by escort operations. The Strait of Hormuz escort operation carries extremely high security risks. The narrowest point of the strait is less than 40 kilometers. Iran on the north bank can use a variety of means—missiles, drones, small surface vessels, mines, and more—to threaten ships traveling through. The narrow maritime environment and tense conflict posture can easily lead to accidents such as collisions, misjudgments, and misfires.

Third, European countries are more inclined to solve the problem through diplomacy. The UK and France and Germany were major participants in the negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal, and they have both experience and willingness to resolve Iran-related issues through talks, while also being able to obtain their own strategic interests through negotiations. Regarding this U.S.-Iran war, European countries also call for a diplomatic solution.

Differences between the U.S. and Europe over the Iran issue and escort operations further reveal—while also widening—the rift between the U.S. and Europe. Worth noting is that Iran has previously stated clearly that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed only to “enemies and their allies, and those who launch aggression against our country.” To a certain extent, if European countries participate in the escort proposed by the U.S., it is no different from taking the side opposite Iran.

Is the U.S. “strategically helping” Russia?

Many European analysts believe that the spillover impact of the U.S.-Iran war on the situation in Ukraine is also an important factor driving a split in U.S.-Europe relations.

First, increased oil revenues give Russia “breathing room.” Due to the persistent “blockage” effect on the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have risen to their highest level since the middle of 2022. As a major global oil producer, Russia can increase its oil revenue with the help of high oil prices. To curb oil prices, the U.S. has also taken the initiative to ease some sanctions targeting Russia’s oil exports, including granting India a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil.

Second, Ukraine’s air defense capabilities have been weakened. The U.S.-made “Patriot” air defense system is a key piece of equipment for Ukraine’s defense. The U.S. and its Central and Eastern European allies have used large numbers of “Patriot” air defense missiles to intercept Iranian missiles and drones. As the U.S.-Iran war continues, more “Patriot” missiles will be redeployed to the Middle East, and Ukraine’s air defense forces may face a shortfall—exacerbating Europe’s unease and anxiety.

Finally, the accumulated U.S.-Europe game against each other has expanded Russia’s strategic room. After issues such as military expenditure burden-sharing, tariff disputes, and Greenland sovereignty, a further disagreement between the U.S. and Europe on the escort problem in the Strait of Hormuz is a scenario Russia would welcome. This “new internal friction” will further turn U.S. assistance to Ukraine into “bargaining chips.” For Russia, a NATO trust rift that keeps growing will provide more strategic space for Russia’s subsequent game with the U.S. and Europe. (According to a report by Xinhua News Agency) 

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