First Research: Increased Equipment Maintenance, PTA Futures Prices Fluctuate Slightly Stronger

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According to initial research, increased maintenance of devices has led to a strong fluctuation in PTA futures prices.
In the spot market, the PTA price in East China is 6,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The March main port delivery is quoted at a 65 yuan/ton discount to the May contract, with trades occurring at a discount of around 70 yuan/ton, while the April main port delivery is quoted at a discount of 40-50 yuan/ton, with offers at a discount of 45-55 yuan/ton.
On the supply side, due to upstream raw material supply issues, Yisheng New Materials plans to operate its 7.2 million ton PTA facility at a 30% reduced capacity starting April 1, with subsequent adjustments to the operating rate of other Yisheng plants depending on raw material availability. Due to severe cost fluctuations, the processing margin for PTA in the spot market has been significantly compressed, leading to an increase in domestic facility shutdowns.
On the demand side, terminal demand remains weak, and inventory of polyester products is rising rapidly. The production cut at major filament manufacturers has expanded from 15% to 20%, and the production cut period has been extended from the end of the first quarter to the end of April, with further reductions in production ratios expected based on upstream and downstream conditions.
Viewpoint: Interruptions in crude oil supply continue, combined with a significant compression of processing margins, have increased PTA maintenance plans. However, with greater production cuts downstream, both supply and demand for PTA are weak, and the short-term trading valuation repair logic focuses on the price trends on the cost side and changes in operational status of facilities.
(The above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.)

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