What kind of people can survive the bull and bear markets?

What kind of person can traverse the bull and bear markets?

In your experiences of navigating through bull and bear markets, what is the core trait of those who ultimately “survive”—the true survivors?

After reading picklecat’s article, the question that has long lingered in my heart finally has a clear answer.

1. The Eternal Illusion, Named “This Time It’s Different”
   “This time it’s different!”—the survivors of 2013 heard this phrase when they bought their first Bitcoin; by the peak of the bull market in 2021, this phrase echoed in their ears once again; even now, this phrase still whispers like a ghost, as if an old friend has returned. The difference is that the people saying this have changed over and over again.

I recall that when I first started trading memes, the thought in my head was also, “This time it’s different!”

At that time, I had just transitioned from the A-shares market to crypto, carrying the belief from A-shares that “spot doesn’t fear being trapped; buy more as it drops,” and exchanged a lot of money for SOL, then scattered a few or dozens of SOL into various pools with strange names like scattering sesame seeds.

At that time, I only felt that “this coin is only $0.00001; if it rises to $0.0001, that’s ten times,” simple arithmetic replaced complex thinking.

My wallet still retains those messy names, and now their existence feels absurd to me. Their lifecycle is not measured in days or months, but in minutes or hours.

At some point, these projects stopped updating, and the “shared dream” and “let’s build together” in the group quickly turned into accusations and wails of “when will the pump happen?”

That was the first time I truly felt that in crypto, “going to zero” is not an exaggerated rhetoric, but a physical reality happening in countless wallets every day.

2. The Most Expensive Tuition: The Fantasy of “Insider Information”
   An even more ironic lesson came from my most trusted circle. When I started to doubt life after losing money in meme trading, a close friend approached me, saying, “This time it really is different,” he said mysteriously, “I know someone from the project team; they’re going to be on a major exchange next month, at internal price, guaranteed profit.”

You can guess the outcome; I invested my money, but that project never launched, and my friend later told me that he was also scammed. That sum of money became the most expensive lesson in my crypto career (so far)—it completely shattered my last shred of fantasy about “insider information.”

3. The “Temperament” of Survivors: Clarity After Pain
   Over the years, I have dug into the mistakes I’ve made and those of my vanished friends like an archaeologist, and I have gradually seen clearly the people who can traverse one bull and bear market after another; they exude a similar “temperament.”

That is not a temperament of luck, but a complex nature mixed with pain and clarity.

First, they have an instinctive reverence for numbers and a clear perception of scale.

When I was randomly throwing SOL around, the survivors were calculating fully diluted valuations, checking on-chain holding distributions, and asking, “If everyone sells, how much capital is needed to catch it?”

They don’t just look at prices; they look at market capitalization; they don’t just look at gains; they look at liquidity depth. They know that a coin with a market cap of $100 million rising tenfold is much harder than a coin with a market cap of $10 million rising tenfold.

Second, they have a surgical ability to distinguish between “consensus” and “narrative.”

When I was emotionally stirred by narratives like “to the moon” and “stars and seas,” they were watching: are people really using this protocol, or are they just speculating? When the incentives stop, how many will remain?

They use the “five questions for retail investors” from @0xPickleCati to interrogate every hot project: Are there outsiders? Can it withstand the incentive decay test? Has it formed a daily habit? Are users willing to tolerate temporary shortcomings for the benefits? Is anyone willing to generate value out of love?

Third, their understanding of “trust” is as cold as ice.

After my friend’s scam, I realized that in crypto, trust must be placed above verifiable on-chain behavior and long-term consistent reputation, rather than private “I’ll only tell you.”

Fourth, they have a set of “self-countering” behavioral systems.

This is the most crucial point. They are acutely aware of their emotional weaknesses—fear, greed, FOMO, revenge trading—and during calm market conditions, they set a roadmap for when emotions go out of control.

“If it drops by 30%, I will reduce my position by 25%, rather than averaging down.”
“Any buying decision must be executed after a 24-hour cooling-off period.”
“If a single loss exceeds 2% of total funds, all trading stops for today.”

These rules are not dogmas written on paper; they are ingrained in the muscle memory of their trading instincts.

Their beliefs are built on quicksand yet as solid as a rock.

This sounds contradictory, but that’s the key. Their “faith” in a particular token or protocol is based on a clear awareness of its potential failure. They embrace uncertainty; therefore, their persistence is not blind loyalty but rather the adult mindset of “I am willing to bet on this possibility and bear all consequences.”

Their faith can calmly articulate opposing viewpoints rather than fanatically eradicate dissent.

The crypto market is the most effective “humanity filter” on this planet. It does not filter for the smartest, but for the most resilient; it does not filter for the best at making money, but for those who understand not losing money.

I also want to ask everyone: in your experiences of traversing bull and bear markets, what is the core trait you have observed in those who “survive”?

Is it extreme calmness? Risk aversion? A learning machine? Loneliness and patience? Or decisiveness?

At the same time, if you’ve read this far and a friend’s face matching these traits has emerged in your mind, please forward this article to them with a note: “I think you are that kind of person.”

Because in this field, where most will become fuel, recognizing and approaching those who can survive long-term is itself one of the most important survival wisdoms.