Wen Chengkai: 3.24 Gold surges then pulls back, long and short struggle, caught in a dilemma, latest rise and fall analysis

On Tuesday during the Asian trading session, international gold exhibited a “high and low” fluctuation pattern. After rebounding from a low in the previous trading day, gold prices faced downward pressure again, with selling pressure on the market not being significantly released, highlighting the intense situation of the current bullish-bearish competition. The core contradiction in the current gold market lies in the structural opposition between “rate suppression” and “hedging support,” with the ongoing struggle between these two logics leading to increased price volatility and unclear direction.
Suppression Logic: Rising Rate Expectations Decrease Gold’s Investment Value
Reversal of Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: Due to inflation concerns driven by rising oil prices from the Middle East conflict, the market has largely ruled out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in 2026 and has even begun to bet on rate hikes. Swap market data shows that traders’ bets on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year have risen to 20 basis points, with the probability of a hike climbing from the previous 21% to 27%. However, it is important to note that there are policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve, with Governor Stephen Mnuchin explicitly stating that there is no need to consider a rate hike, maintaining expectations for four rate cuts within the year. Mainstream financial institutions also believe that the probability of a rate hike this year is limited.
U.S. Treasury Yield and Strong Dollar: Rate hike expectations have driven the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to continue rising, once breaking through 4.423%, reaching a new high since July 2025. The attractiveness of dollar assets has simultaneously increased, while gold, as a typical non-yielding asset, sees its opportunity cost sharply rising in a high-interest-rate environment, with funds continuously flowing from the precious metals market to interest-bearing assets like U.S. Treasuries and dollars,

forming a clear transmission chain of “rising oil prices → escalating inflation → rate hike expectations → gold under pressure.”
Support Logic: Recurrent Geopolitical Situations Maintain Hedging Demand and Support Prices
The ongoing escalation and fluctuations of the Middle East conflict remain the core variable driving gold prices, providing a bottom-line support for gold. U.S. President Trump previously released a positive signal of “possibly reaching an agreement with Iran,” which temporarily alleviated market panic; however, Iran quickly denied this, clearly stating that the conflict would continue until full compensation is received. This significant divergence in official statements has further increased market uncertainty. Crucially, the Strait of Hormuz, as the “artery” of global energy, always carries the risk of shipping disruptions. Should the situation escalate, it could trigger a global energy supply crisis, and this potential risk limits the downside space for gold, preventing prices from falling into a significant downward trend.
Technical Deep Analysis: Gold’s Mid-Term Downward Pattern Remains Unchanged, Focus on the 4100-4500 Key Range
Daily Level: The daily chart shows that gold is still in a mid-term downward trend. The previous effective break below the 100-day moving average has constituted a key signal of weakened trend, establishing a bearish dominant pattern. The 200-day moving average around 4100 USD is currently the most important mid-term support level, serving as a watershed for bulls and bears: although prices have staged a temporary rebound above this support, the upward momentum is significantly insufficient, and the rebound strength is weak. The key resistance above is at 4530 USD; if it can effectively hold above this level, the rebound space will further open, potentially testing the 4700 USD region; the short-term support below is at 4300 USD; if this support is effectively broken, gold prices will face another test, likely re-testing the 4100 USD support area. From the indicators: MACD is operating below the zero axis, and the green bars continue to expand, indicating that bearish momentum is still strengthening; KDJ is in the oversold zone near 20, suggesting short-term technical rebound repair demand, but it is difficult to change the overall weak pattern.

4-Hour Level: Gold shows a clear bearish fluctuation structure, with the short-term moving average system maintaining a bearish arrangement. Prices have repeatedly rebounded but encountered resistance at the moving average level, with bullish efforts lacking strength. Currently, resistance is concentrated in the 4500-4540 USD range, which is the core area of short-term competition between bulls and bears; if an effective breakthrough cannot be achieved, the market will likely continue its weak fluctuation; below, attention is focused on the 4300 USD and 4100 USD levels. If key support is lost, it will open up a new round of downward space. In terms of indicators, MACD is still in the negative area, indicating that the short-term bearish trend has not yet ended, but caution should be exercised regarding potential technical rebound repair due to the oversold area.
In summary: Gold is currently in a stage of “mid-term downward trend + short-term oversold rebound”: the daily level downward trend has not been reversed, with the 4100 USD support being the core boundary determining the mid-term pattern; the 4-hour level maintains a bearish fluctuation structure, with the overall rebound space limited. Overall judgment: until an effective breakthrough above the key resistance at 4500 USD, gold will continue to primarily exhibit weak fluctuations, with short-term movements more likely to oscillate between oversold repair and the continuation of bearish trends,

For everyone, it is essential to focus on the effectiveness of the 4100 USD support and the breakthrough of the 4500 USD resistance. In an extreme volatility environment, rational control of positions is necessary to avoid blindly chasing rises and falls, and to guard against reversal risks.