The coal sector remains strong during the off-season, with Guotai (515220) Coal ETF continuously attracting funds.

The current global energy market is undergoing profound restructuring, with international oil prices soaring. Under the resource endowment of “rich in coal, lacking oil, and short of gas,” the strategic value of coal as an energy stabilizer and key alternative continues to stand out. From an industrial transmission perspective, the rise in oil and gas prices is catalyzing coal demand through three pathways: first, the direct substitution effect of coal for oil and gas; second, the recovery of coal chemical profitability driving an increase in production load; and third, the surge in global shipping costs raising the cost of imported coal, highlighting the cost-effectiveness of domestic coal.

Amid multiple resonating logics, the coal sector is evolving from merely a high-dividend defensive asset to a balanced asset that combines “energy security premium + alternative demand increment + strengthened cost support.” The coal ETF from Guotai (515220) leads the market, with a net inflow exceeding 1 billion yuan for five consecutive days. As the only ETF product tracking the CSI Coal Index in the entire market, it is a core tool for grasping this round of energy linkage.

【Price Logic: The Off-Season is Not Off-Season, Coal Prices Push Toward the 1,000 Yuan Mark】

The price of thermal coal has ended its adjustment phase, starting a counter-seasonal upward trend; the main contract for coking coal has surged, leading domestic commodities. The coal price upcycle has officially begun.

Thermal Coal: The Off-Season Not Being Off-Season is Becoming Reality: As of March 20, the thermal coal at North Port closed at 735-737 yuan/ton, increasing week-on-week. Guosheng Securities emphasized that against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, reduced import volumes, and a surge in coal chemical demand, the reality of thermal coal not being off-season is becoming a fact. Moreover, the longer the conflict lasts, the stronger the momentum for rising coal prices, and it is still believed that coal prices will push toward the 1,000 yuan mark. Guotai Haitong Securities also pointed out that the reality of the domestic off-season not being off-season may lead to an earlier replenishment this summer. Data from Datong Securities shows that the closing price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port rose week-on-week to 735 yuan/ton, with prices in the “Jinshanmeng” production area generally rising week-on-week, among which the Q5500 pithead price in Yulin, Shaanxi, increased by 90 yuan/ton week-on-week.

Coking Coal: Emotional Spillover Resonates with Fundamentals: In the night trading session on March 20, the main contract for coking coal surged by 8.7%, leading domestic commodities. Guosheng Securities analyzed that the logic behind this is not simply driven by supply and demand for coking coal itself, but is more influenced by the substitution effect after rising energy costs, the transmission effect of coal chemicals, and the catalyzing effect of counter-seasonal rises in thermal coal. Data from Zheshang Securities shows that the main coking coal at Jing-Tang Port rose by 10 yuan/ton week-on-week to 1,600 yuan/ton, and the CCI Shanxi low-sulfur index rose by 15 yuan/ton week-on-week, showing a trend of “ports and production areas strengthening simultaneously” in coking coal prices.

Estimation of Upward Space: China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has calculated the possible operating range for domestic thermal coal prices based on different oil price scenarios. If extreme risk scenarios occur (Brent crude oil price at 109 dollars/barrel), from the historical oil-coal price ratio, there is a risk that domestic thermal coal prices could exceed 1,000 yuan/ton. Historically, when the oil price was 97 dollars/barrel in 2008, domestic coal prices reached 1,090 yuan/ton; when the oil price was 111 dollars/barrel in 2011, coal prices reached 857 yuan/ton; and when the oil price was 101 dollars/barrel in 2022, coal prices reached 1,200 yuan/ton. CITIC Securities analyzed that thermal coal prices are showing a strong fluctuation trend, and future attention needs to be paid to the release of non-electric demand.

【Policy and Capital Logic: Safety Net + High Dividend Build Dual Support】

The strategic positioning of coal as a ballast for energy security continues to strengthen, with leading coal enterprises showcasing high profitability, high cash flow, and high dividend characteristics, highlighting their investment value in a low-interest-rate environment.

Elevated Strategic Position of Energy Security: The “14th Five-Year Plan” clearly defines the foundational guarantee role of coal, emphasizing clean and efficient use of coal and the construction of a strategic reserve system. Datong Securities pointed out that new regulations on market value management for central enterprises have been implemented, initiating the asset injection work for state-owned coal enterprises, thus enhancing industry valuation elasticity. Against the backdrop of soaring overseas energy prices, the importance of energy security will be further highlighted, and coal will continue to play the role of a ballast for energy supply.

High Dividends Build Safety Margins: Leading coal enterprises maintain high dividend rates, with stable cash flows, exhibiting characteristics akin to public utilities in a declining interest rate environment. Top coal companies have high asset quality, abundant cash flow, and demonstrate the five high characteristics of “high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers, high dividends, and high safety margins.” Datong Securities analyzed that the high profitability, high cash flow, and high dividend attributes of quality coal enterprises are becoming prominent. In the context of loose liquidity in the capital market, the valuation center is expected to systematically shift upward.

Continued Tight Supply and Demand Balance: Domestic coal production is constrained by normalized safety supervision, with limited incremental capacity; imported coal supply is weakened due to Indonesian policies and geopolitical conflicts. On the demand side, the non-electric sector’s rigid demand provides support, with an increase in the operating rate of the chemical industry and a rebound in the cement industry, overall reflecting the characteristic of “the off-season not being off-season.” Data from CITIC Securities shows that coal inventories in 17 inland provinces decreased week-on-week, inventories in the eight coastal provinces remained stable, and daily consumption at power plants rebounded week-on-week, marginally improving the supply-demand dynamics.

【Industry Logic: Energy Substitution Gives Rise to Three Major Demand Increments】

High oil and gas prices are providing strong support for coal demand through three pathways: the substitution of coal for oil/gas, the increase in coal chemical load, and the substitution of imported coal, making the reality of coal prices not being off-season.

Path One: Direct Substitution of Coal for Oil and Gas: CICC pointed out that the price of natural gas is significantly higher than that of coal per unit of heat value, and the parity for gas-coal conversion has reached a high level. The price ratio between European natural gas and coal is approaching historical extremes, activating the demand for coal-to-power substitution. Changjiang Securities estimates that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an extended period, the demand for coal-to-power substitution alone could annually drive global coal consumption for electricity by 84.86 million tons. Datong Securities analyzed that the high level of overseas energy prices forms support, and under short-term supply-demand game dynamics, coal prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. In the medium to long term, supported by import cost constraints, the replenishment cycle approaching, and tightening global energy, prices are expected to move toward a reasonable range for correction.

Path Two: Recovery of Coal Chemical Profitability Boosts Load Increase: Guosheng Securities pointed out that since the beginning of March, following the US-Iran conflict, oil and gas prices have surged, with most domestic chemical product main contracts rising by over 30% from their lows, significantly enhancing domestic coal chemical profitability. Coal chemical enterprises are increasing production loads, to some extent supporting off-season demand. Zheshang Securities emphasizes that some coal chemical varieties that use natural gas and oil as raw materials have started to reduce their capacity utilization overseas, while domestic coal chemical cost advantages are highlighted. The logic for increased coal chemical operating rates is established, with a strong certainty regarding the increase in coal consumption for chemicals. According to data disclosed by the National Development and Reform Commission, coal consumption for chemicals is expected to reach 430 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. CITIC Securities analyzed that the methanol operating rate remains high, and the methanol price index is rising, supporting coal demand.

Path Three: Import Coal Backwardation Stimulating Domestic Trade Demand: Against the backdrop of high import coal prices, the cost-effectiveness advantage of imported coal compared to domestic coal has significantly weakened, leading to increased inquiry and procurement enthusiasm from some end-users and speculators, shifting expectations toward domestic coal bidding. Guosheng Securities believes that the current backwardation of imported coal has further widened, with expectations for a decrease in import volumes, making underwhelming replenishment in the off-season a likely scenario. In response to future uncertainties, some end-users have proactively begun replenishment and shifted to domestic procurement, collectively supporting prices from falling and initiating a counter-seasonal upward trend in the off-season. Data from CITIC Securities shows that the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port rose week-on-week, and the price of Shanxi mixed coal 5500 at Guangzhou Port increased by 2.4% week-on-week, with the rise in import coal prices supporting domestic coal.

【Investment Recommendations: Coal ETF Guotai (515220) for One-Click Exposure to Energy Linkage Trend】

The coal sector currently possesses three layers of logical support—overseas geopolitical conflicts bringing price elasticity, energy substitution demand providing incremental space, and high dividend attributes constructing safety margins. The coal ETF from Guotai (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index, covering leading enterprises in thermal coal, coking coal, and coal-electricity integration, and is the only ETF product in the A-share market tracking this index. From a configuration value perspective, leading coal enterprises maintain high dividend rates, with stable cash flows, exhibiting characteristics akin to public utilities in a declining interest rate environment.

For investors, under the resonance of multiple logics such as overseas geopolitical conflicts, contractions in Indonesian supply, and energy substitution demand, the recovery trend in the coal sector shows strong certainty. By investing in the coal ETF from Guotai (515220), investors can capture short-term trading opportunities catalyzed by geopolitical conflicts, while also serving as a core variety for long-term allocation in high-dividend and high-safety-margin sectors.

Risk Warning: Mention of individual stocks is for industry event analysis only and does not constitute any stock recommendation or investment advice. Index short-term fluctuations are for reference only and do not represent future performance, nor do they constitute a commitment or guarantee regarding fund performance. Views may adjust with changes in market conditions and do not constitute investment advice or commitments. The risk-return characteristics of the mentioned funds vary; investors are advised to carefully read the fund’s legal documents, fully understand product elements, risk levels, and income distribution principles, and choose products that match their risk tolerance for prudent investment.

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