Scotiabank: Sustained oil price shocks may weaken the US dollar

金色财经_ · 2026-03-25T14:07:59+00:00

TD Securities strategists believe that the oil price impact from an Iran war could have adverse effects on the US dollar, although America's energy independence could temporarily support the greenback. They warn that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, the possibility of medium-term dollar weakness increases, while rising defense spending could also exacerbate concerns about the US deficit.

金色财经_

2026-03-25 14:07:59

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Goldman Sachs strategists stated in a report that the ongoing oil price shocks caused by the Iran war could ultimately be unfavorable for the US dollar. They noted that, compared to the EU and Asia, America’s energy independence should delay the impact on the US, temporarily shifting growth and relative interest rate differentials in favor of the dollar. “Ultimately, even the US and the Federal Reserve cannot escape the long-term growth and macroeconomic effects of disruptions in the energy market.” They added that if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates by the end of this year, the dollar is expected to weaken in the medium term. Concerns over the US deficit may also intensify due to increased defense spending.

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