Oil Crisis Coming? From Melbourne to Bangkok, Oil Prices Are Skyrocketing! China's Electric Vehicles Enter an Opportunity Period

Everyday Economic News Reporter | Duan Siyao Everyday Economic News Editor | Yu Tingting

After the outbreak of the Iran-U.S. conflict, a Chinese person named Li Wei (pseudonym), who runs a delivery business in Melbourne, checks oil prices on his phone every morning as his first task.

“The diesel at the gas station near my home has risen to AUD 2.9 per liter (about RMB 14.1), up from less than AUD 2 a month ago,” Li Wei told the Daily Economic News. He calculated that a driver delivering packages nearly 400 kilometers daily now spends about AUD 40 more on fuel each day compared to before the price increase (about RMB 193.3). This means they need to deliver 20 more packages daily just to cover the additional fuel costs.

Image source: Interviewee provided photo

On March 22, in Bangkok, a Chinese person named Zhang Ya (pseudonym), who has lived there for over ten years, watched the news on TV: “Thailand currently has sufficient oil reserves, and relevant departments are speeding up solutions to transportation issues. The public should view oil price adjustments rationally.” However, Zhang Ya recalls that on March 17, the Thai government announced an increase in oil prices the next day, leading to some areas experiencing queues for fuel. She was a bit late that day and couldn’t refuel, finally filling her vehicle five days later.

As conflicts in the Middle East escalate, causing the Strait of Hormuz to effectively close, about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments are disrupted. Brent crude prices soared well above pre-conflict levels.

When the cost of a barrel of oil begins to threaten ordinary people’s livelihoods, calculating costs becomes the most straightforward form of rationality. “Maybe I should seriously consider switching to an electric vehicle,” Li Wei said, handing his phone to his wife, showing a review of a Chinese brand electric truck in Australia.

From Bangkok to Melbourne, from the anxiety of fuel shortages to plans for switching vehicles, every calculation behind these decisions reflects a shift in the era. For Chinese automotive brands that have long been developing in the electric sector, this market change driven by the oil crisis is placing them on more people’s lists of options.

The ripple effect of war on oil prices: from Hormuz to the average person’s gas tank

The chain of war always extends in unexpected ways. When the fire ignites in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s energy artery, ordinary lives around the globe are the first to tighten.

“I went to several gas stations early this morning but couldn’t get diesel,” a freight driver in Thailand posted online. “Not only is there little fuel, but prices have also risen significantly. Diesel used to be 29.96 Thai Baht per liter (about RMB 6.27), now it’s 31.16 Baht. I need to check fuel levels before hauling, and I can only buy a little when passing by a station.”

Affected by the continuous rise in international oil prices, Thailand has adjusted its domestic fuel prices since March 18. The diesel price ceiling has been raised from no more than 30 Baht per liter to 33 Baht, with a phased increase; gasoline prices for 91 and 95 octane have each increased by 1 Baht per liter.

In neighboring Southeast Asia, Vietnam announced on March 19 at 11 p.m. that the prices of 95 octane gasoline and diesel would increase by several thousand VND per liter, pushing prices above 30,000 VND per liter (about RMB 7.86). Before the Iran tensions, Vietnam’s oil prices were below 20,000 VND per liter. On March 22, a Vietnamese Chinese person said, “Today I just filled up a tank of oil, costing 105,000 VND, whereas before it was no more than 80,000 VND.”

International crude oil price increases have also led to rises in China’s refined oil prices. On March 23, the government implemented temporary price controls. Based on the current pricing mechanism, from 24:00 on March 23, domestic gasoline and diesel (standard grade) prices should increase by 2,205 RMB and 2,120 RMB per ton respectively. After adjustments, the actual increases are 1,160 RMB and 1,115 RMB. Converted to per-liter prices, this means domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard grade) will rise by about 0.87 RMB and 0.95 RMB per liter, respectively, which is about 0.85 RMB less than if no controls were applied.

On March 23, visits to some gas stations found no queues. A staff member said, “Yesterday (22nd), there were some times when we had to queue, but the supply of 92 and 95 octane gasoline and diesel was normal.”

Image source: Daily Economic News reporter Duan Siyao

As the U.S.-Iran conflict remains deadlocked, Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for the second time in less than two weeks. The bank now expects that oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at 5% of normal levels over the next six weeks, gradually recovering within a month. However, due to ongoing uncertainties, oil prices are expected to continue rising slightly in the short term.

The price gap between oil and electric vehicles prompts savvy buyers to choose Chinese EVs

As queues at gas stations shrink, waiting lists at electric vehicle showrooms are quietly growing.

In Perth, Australia, BYD sales consultant Hina (pseudonym) recalled on social media that since the Iran tensions escalated, her dealership’s orders have surged significantly, with daily sales exceeding ten vehicles, leading to longer delivery times and a long waiting list of customers.

The reporter noted that after the Middle East conflict erupted, Chinese auto brands’ dealerships worldwide experienced booming business. Reports indicate that in a BYD dealership in the Philippines, order volume over the past two weeks has matched that of an entire month previously.

Vietnam’s largest electric vehicle company, VinFast, expects that rising fuel prices and global geopolitical tensions will support long-term demand for EVs. The company plans to accelerate expansion and strengthen charging infrastructure. Media reports say that in Hanoi, VinFast has had to hire more sales staff because since the war began, showroom visitors have surged, with 250 electric vehicles sold in three weeks.

Hina was surprised to find that most previous EV buyers were environmentalists or tech enthusiasts, but now they are ordinary office workers, taxi companies, and freight industry operators. In this “oil shortage” and general price rise, the “oil-electricity price gap” has become more striking. For example, in Thailand, the gap is about three times, and with Thailand’s improving power infrastructure, driving EVs can significantly reduce costs compared to fuel cars.

“Rising oil prices not only affect gasoline and diesel prices but also increase transportation and other hidden costs,” Li Wei told the Daily Economic News. “For example, in logistics and delivery, the apparent increase in fuel expenses actually chains through all segments, raising costs across the board. Even the tape used for packaging packages has increased by AUD 0.7 per roll.”

Li Wei observed that Chinese-brand new energy vehicles are quite popular in Australia. “Australia has made clean energy a national strategy, with a developed solar and photovoltaic industry. Over the past two years, I’ve seen more friends buy Chinese-brand new energy cars,” he said. From a power perspective, hybrid vans are the most cost-effective, especially since Australia implements peak and off-peak electricity pricing—AUD 0.4 per kWh off-peak and AUD 1–2 during peak hours—both lower than current fuel prices.

“Oil Shock” Unfolds: Chinese EVs Gain Market Opportunities

From Bangkok to Hanoi, from Melbourne to Perth, showrooms filled with Chinese electric vehicles are full of people doing cost calculations. They may not care about environmental benefits or technical details; they just find EVs more economical than burning fuel. If we look back to the 1970s, today’s situation feels eerily familiar.

In 1973, the Fourth Middle East War triggered a global oil crisis, with prices soaring. Amid the crisis, opportunities also emerged: Japanese automakers, already focused on small, fuel-efficient cars, quickly gained market share in the U.S. thanks to their fuel economy. By 1980, Japanese car production surpassed that of the U.S., becoming the world’s largest.

In 1979, the second oil crisis further cemented Japan’s advantage in fuel-efficient models. Meanwhile, Korean automakers seized the post-1997 Asian financial crisis window, with Hyundai leading the “quality management” approach, transforming from cheap cars to global mainstream brands within a decade. Hyundai and Kia entered the top five worldwide.

These two oil crises profoundly reshaped the global auto industry: the first established Japan’s automotive dominance, the second reinforced it, and also paved the way for Korea’s rise. Now, a new “oil shock” is unfolding. “The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of energy crises will become major opportunities for Chinese brands to replace fuel vehicles on a large scale,” said Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, in an interview.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on March 21, the Japan Economic News reported that Japanese automakers’ global cumulative vehicle sales in 2025 are expected to decline slightly to about 25 million units, the first drop since 2000. In contrast, Chinese automakers sold nearly 27 million vehicles globally last year, surpassing Japan for the first time to become the world’s largest.

Tang Jin, a senior researcher at Mizuho Bank’s Business Solutions Department and an automotive expert, said that China’s surpassing Japan in total sales is not just a ranking change but signals a reconfiguration of the global automotive influence landscape.

“After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy costs in Europe are high, and electricity is expensive. In 2024, only 5% of new energy vehicles are in Europe, but by 2025, that number will reach 18%, mostly contributed by Chinese brands,” said Qi Shilong, executive vice president of Chery Automobile, in an interview. “Consumers in these countries are highly receptive to new energy vehicles. Although they impose various trade barriers or other pressures on Chinese EVs, China’s PHEV (plug-in hybrid) models with long range and smart features are very popular in Europe.”

A senior executive from a multinational auto parts supplier said, “When oil prices rise, many overseas consumers, including Europeans, consider switching to EVs. I understand that electricity costs in Europe are also high, much more than domestically. But overall, this creates opportunities for Chinese auto brands.”

NIO co-founder Qin Lihong told reporters, “Given the international trends since the beginning of this year, oil prices are likely to continue rising. Fuel vehicles or oil-powered models will face greater price volatility risks. Meanwhile, battery prices have stabilized, so I believe 2023 still holds opportunities for new energy vehicles.”

“Under the background of rising oil prices, Chinese independent brands’ EVs have a very prominent cost-performance advantage. This year, exports of domestic brands are expected to further increase, possibly by over 1 million units compared to 2025,” said the senior executive. “China’s strategic focus on developing new energy and intelligent vehicles is very forward-looking, and these products will become increasingly popular overseas.”

“Previously, Japanese and Korean cars relied on fuel efficiency to win markets; now, Chinese cars are competing by ‘not using oil,’” Li Wei said. “In Melbourne’s logistics circles, three colleagues have already switched to electric trucks.”

The reconfiguration of the global automotive influence map is no longer a prophecy but an ongoing reality. Ordinary people at gas stations around the world, calculating costs, are actively driving Chinese new energy vehicles to accelerate their overseas expansion.