【Institutional Strategy】The Foundation of This Round of A-Share Market Remains Solid

China Securities believes that on Tuesday, the A-share market initially declined and then rose, showing a volatile upward trend. During the session, industries such as non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, electricity, and power grid equipment performed well; while rare earths, insurance, oil and petrochemicals, and coal sectors underperformed. The current core pressure on the market mainly comes from overseas. If the Middle East conflict escalates further, it could trigger a sustained rise in oil prices, intensifying global stagflation pressures. If U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts or even raise rates again, putting pressure on global liquidity and risk appetite. Considering the clearer macro policy tone domestically, the market has a solid bottom support. It is recommended to closely monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments.

CaiXin Securities believes that on Tuesday, boosted by easing tensions in the Middle East, global equity markets generally rebounded. Although the A-share market opened high and experienced significant fluctuations, it still showed a good recovery in the afternoon. The market-wide rally was driven by a rebound in all thematic sectors, except for oil, gas, and coal sectors which weakened due to a sharp drop in crude oil prices. In the short term, the disturbances caused by the fluctuating Middle East situation remain, but their impact is diminishing for two main reasons: one, the possibility of the U.S. and Iran easing tensions through negotiations, which could reduce market panic; two, after significant volatility in the previous trading days, the market has largely priced in short-term negative scenarios, and with the market stabilizing today, it is appropriate to participate in short-term repairs of the main index. However, although the market rose broadly, trading volume was relatively low, and with A-shares approaching a period of intensive earnings disclosures, risk appetite among funds still needs improvement. From a technical perspective, since major indices are in a bearish alignment, if volume does not stabilize and break through resistance levels, the market may oscillate around this level repeatedly, forming a bottom, with sector performance also diverging. Therefore, before the market volume breaks through resistance levels, it is advisable to participate selectively in structural opportunities, focusing on sectors and stocks with earnings exceeding expectations. In the medium term, driven by the continuation of the “double easing” monetary and fiscal policies, ongoing inflows of household savings into the market, improvements in corporate performance amid anti-involution efforts, and continuous breakthroughs in global AI technology, the current A-share rally remains solid. It is expected that the Middle East conflict will only temporarily affect market sentiment and rhythm, not the overall market direction. Confidence in the medium- and long-term positive trend remains, and excessive worry is unwarranted.

Dongwu Securities believes that on Tuesday, the main indices of the A-share market broadly rose and rebounded. After a prior sharp decline, the market experienced a strong oversold rebound. Going forward, attention should be paid to developments in the Middle East and crude oil price trends. Recently, there have been frequent news fluctuations, and commodity markets are highly volatile, with potential reversals occurring within the day due to new developments.