【US Stock Market Pre-Market】Iran War Negotiations "Blowing Warm Winds" Dow Futures Up 365 Points, Nasdaq Futures Up 1% Brent Crude Falls 4% Below $100 Mark (Continuously Updated)

Iran reiterates that non-hostile ships can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz with coordination. Marine Traffic data shows that from Monday (23rd) to now, nine ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The news caused oil prices to retreat, with NYMEX May crude falling 4.6% to $88.12, and Brent May crude dropping 4.5% to $99.75.

Iran’s war negotiations are “warming up,” and U.S. stock futures rose before the market open on Wednesday, with the Dow futures up 365 points at 46,780, the S&P 500 futures up 53 points at 6,659, and the Nasdaq futures up 238 points or 1% at 24,452. Gold in New York rose 3.5% to $4,588, and spot gold increased 1.8% to $4,556.

In focus stocks, Tesla’s official release of a video revealed details about Optimus, including the development environment, reduction gearboxes, and dexterous hands. Tesla Optimus states that it will fundamentally change the labor force and manufacturing economy. Elon Musk said Optimus 3 is expected to start production this summer and could achieve mass production by 2027. Tesla (TSLA) pre-market rose over 1%, currently at $389.14.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See the next page for details.

Market Trends:

【17:55】Iran war negotiations “warming up”—Dow futures up 365 points, Nasdaq futures up 1%, Brent crude down 4%, falling below $100.

【14:54】Dow futures up 339 points at 46,754, S&P futures up 42 points at 6,648, Nasdaq futures up 160 points or 0.7% at 24,374.

【14:54】NYMEX crude down 3.4% at $89.2, Brent crude down 4% at $100.3. Gold in New York up 3.3% at $4,578, spot gold up 1.7% at $4,549.

【13:57】【AI+Sora】OpenAI suddenly halts Sora AI video generation, shocking the market—Disney finished a project meeting and was told 30 minutes later, while OpenAI was still promoting Sora the day before.

【13:52】【AI+IPO】SK Hynix plans to go public in the U.S. within the year, has filed with the SEC, and is rumored to raise up to $10 billion.

【13:32】【US Stock Analysis】U.S. proposes a ceasefire agreement with Iran; Dow futures up over 300 points. Analysis: Trump’s TACO, and two major issues to watch in the future.

【11:01】【Iran Situation】Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan: Long-term conflict could lead to lasting peace in the Middle East as regional powers’ interests align.

【10:48】【US-China Relations】Reportedly, Chinese investment firms are reconsidering reallocating assets to U.S. asset managers.

【10:26】【AI+AAPL】Is Siri no longer just a voice assistant? Apple upgrades Siri to a chat robot with new “Ask Siri” feature, expected to debut at WWDC in June.

【10:00】【Yen Movement】Yen to HKD at 4.93. Bank of Japan minutes: some members suggest timely rate hikes to address inflation.

【09:58】【US Rate Cuts】Federal Reserve Board member Barkin: Rates may need to stay unchanged “for some time” amid Middle East risks.

【09:39】【Gold Price Trend】Gold ends nine consecutive declines! Spot gold back above $4,500, with a daily increase of HKD 1,800 per tael.

【08:54】【ARM+Chips】Arm rises 8% after hours, plans to sell its own chips for the first time, expected to generate about $15 billion annually within five years. Meta is its first major customer.

【08:26】【IPO】SpaceX reportedly plans to file for an IPO as early as this week, potentially raising over $75 billion.

【08:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Iran will send a big gift today; Rubio and Vance involved in negotiations—on the condition that Iran “must not possess nuclear weapons” (updating).

【08:01】【AI+AMZN】Software stocks hit hard again—Amazon reportedly developing new AI agents to replace some departmental functions.

$1 and below for March 24 U.S. stock market:

Tuesday: US seeks talks with Iran on Thursday; Brent stabilizes, Dow narrows losses

Multiple US media report that the US is engaging with Iran on a ceasefire plan. Axios reports that the US and mediators are discussing the possibility of high-level talks on Thursday, but are still waiting for Tehran’s response.

Market close updates:

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Iranian officials deny Trump’s claims of behind-the-scenes negotiations but confirm that the US has sent messages and proposals.

Oil prices are cautious; Brent up 0.2% to $100.17, NYMEX crude up 4.8% to $92.35.

Gold rebounds, spot gold up 1.6% to $4,475.51, silver remains relatively unchanged at $71.2194.

US dollar index rises 0.3% to 99.23, 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.36%.

US stocks are slightly weaker; Dow once down 438 points to 45,769, closing down 84 points at 46,124; S&P down 0.4% at 6,556; Nasdaq down 0.8% at 21,761.

Trump has delayed the final ultimatum by five days, but sporadic attacks continue between Israel and Iran. Pakistan’s Prime Minister says he is willing to host US-Iran talks to resolve ongoing conflicts.

Market reports indicate Iran has begun collecting tolls from some ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, charged on a per-ship basis, with a maximum of $2 million per voyage, effectively establishing an informal “toll” in this waterway. Some ships have paid, but the payment mechanism and currency are unclear.

According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, after close coordination with Iranian authorities, a Thai-flagged ship successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.

Israeli media Ynet quotes local officials that the US has set April 9 as the target date to end the Iran conflict, meaning over half a month remains for fighting and negotiations. Washington is trying to end hostilities by the end of April.

Reports suggest that if the conflict ends around April 9, Trump plans to visit Israel around Independence Day on May 14. Pakistan and other countries are actively mediating, attempting to arrange indirect US-Iran communication, possibly initial contacts this week in Pakistan, though neither side has officially confirmed.

Additionally, according to CCTV citing Russian media, Omani journalist and international relations researcher Salem Al-Jahuri confirmed on BBC Arabic that the US is pressuring Gulf countries to pay huge sums for US involvement in Iran conflicts.

The report states Trump is demanding large “protection fees” from Arab allies—either $5 trillion (about HKD 39 trillion) to continue the conflict or $2.5 trillion (about HKD 19.5 trillion) to end it—claiming this as compensation for “achieved results.”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See the next page for details.

Market Trends:

【22:50】Iran collecting “tolls” from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil rebounds 3%.

【21:30】Pakistan ready to host US-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%, oil rebounds 4%.

【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Is there a glimmer of hope for US-Iran war? Trump reportedly demands a huge protection fee: $2.5 trillion to end the war.

【16:00】【Iran Crisis】US sets April 9 as “End of War” date; Iran continues to deny.

【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points at 46,264; S&P futures down 38 points at 6,596; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6% at 24,258.

【14:00】Oil prices rebound; NYMEX crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent crude at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold continues to weaken; NY gold down 0.9% at $4,400, spot gold at $4,357.

【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Gold prices likely to fluctuate amid Middle East conflict, maintaining a target of $6,250 by year-end.

【13:23】【AI+OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offers generous terms to private equity firms, with a 17.5% minimum return, competing for enterprise AI market.

【13:08】【OnlyFans】Billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky of OnlyFans dies of cancer at age 43.

【12:34】【Gold Price Trend】Gold continues to decline after nine straight drops; HKD per two taels falls below HKD 40,000.

【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut Switch 2 production by about 33% this quarter; reduction may continue into April.

【11:51】【Gold Price Trend】Gold plunges over 20% from high, entering a bear market; Morgan Stanley says funds are flowing from safe-haven assets into stocks, a positive sign for US equities.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga orders assessment of oil-related supply chains to respond to the crisis; Ministry of Finance reportedly consulting on possible intervention in crude oil futures.

【10:36】【AI+Investing】BlackRock CEO: AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality; investors should hedge impacts through stock holdings.

【08:37】【AI+OpenAI】OpenAI states reliance on Microsoft in investor documents poses risks—what other risks exist?

【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Federal Reserve official Daly: US economy faces at least two scenarios; the Fed needs to stay flexible to manage risks.

【07:48】【AI+Apple】Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference WWDC26 scheduled for June 8, expected to unveil a series of AI features.

【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iranian Parliament Speaker denies having negotiated with Trump; UK destroyer “Rong” arrives in the Mediterranean (updating).

$1 and below for March 23 U.S. stock market:

Monday: Trump’s remarks still questioned; Dow halves gains to 631 points, oil down 10%

US President Trump claims negotiations with Iran have paused attacks on power plants, causing oil prices to fall and stocks to rebound. The Dow once rose 1,134 points to a high of 46,712; the S&P rose 2.2% to 6,651; Nasdaq rose 2.5% to 22,189. The gains narrowed at close, with the Dow up 631 points at 46,208, the S&P up 1.1% at 6,581, and Nasdaq up 1.4% at 21,946.

Market close updates:

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Oil once fell 14.1%, closing down 10%, NYMEX crude at $88.13, Brent at $100.5. Gold fell 7% to a low of $4,099.18, closing at $4,407.18.

Macquarie’s global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman said, “We are cautious about the early ‘breakthrough’ news and tweets,” believing the war is unlikely to last beyond April, as Iran’s threat may weaken. However, large-scale military action is unlikely to end within this week.

Trump posted on Truth Social that negotiations with Iran over the past two days went smoothly, and he has instructed the US military to suspend all attacks on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on successful ongoing talks.

Trump later said that multiple agreements had been reached in negotiations, including discussions about Iran’s leadership, and claimed Iran had agreed to abandon nuclear weapons. He also warned that if talks break down, bombing will continue.

However, Tasnim News Agency later quoted Iranian sources denying any negotiations with the US are ongoing, stating that US attacks continue and the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-conflict status. Mehr News Agency also cited Iran’s Foreign Ministry, claiming Trump’s remarks aim to lower energy prices and buy time for military plans.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded that there are some initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s stance is that the US should be the dialogue partner, as Iran did not initiate the war.

Trump further responded, saying negotiations took place on the evening of Sunday (22nd), emphasizing Iran’s urgent desire for an agreement, and expressing confusion over why Iranian media refutes his statements.

T. Rowe Price noted that after Iran was attacked, gold prices initially surged as a typical safe-haven move, but the rally was short-lived as markets quickly reinterpreted the event as a geopolitical risk. Investors did not see it as a sustained geopolitical shock but rather as inflation driven by energy prices. This shift pushed real yields higher, strengthened the dollar, and dampened gold’s appeal.

Gold had already gained significantly before the event, limiting further safe-haven inflows. The outlook for gold remains influenced by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short term, real yields and central bank policies will be key, along with energy prices and dollar movements. The firm still views gold as a strategic asset rather than a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks and policy uncertainty provide some support, though short-term prices may remain volatile.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【22:15】Trump: If US-Iran talks break down, bombing will continue; Dow rebounds 890 points, oil down 10%.

【21:30】Trump delays final ultimatum by 5 days, says negotiations ongoing; Dow up 744 points, oil down 8%.

【20:10】Iran denies negotiations; Dow futures narrow gains, oil down 5%.

【19:10】Trump: Progress in talks, delays final ultimatum 5 days; Dow futures up 1,207 points, Nasdaq futures up 2.2%, oil plunges 10%.

【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points at 45,693; S&P futures down 37 points at 6,521; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7% at 23,934.

【14:13】Oil rebounds; NY crude at $98.97, up 0.8%; Brent at $112.85, up 0.6%. Gold continues to weaken; NY gold down 0.9% at $4,400, spot gold at $4,357.

【14:13】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Short-term gold prices likely to fluctuate amid Middle East conflict, with a year-end target of $6,250.

【13:25】【Oil Price】Goldman warns of “largest supply shock in history,” raising Brent forecast to $85 in 2026.

【13:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA chief: Over 40 Middle East energy assets “severely damaged”; conflict impact akin to two oil crises in the 1970s plus 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.

【11:40】【Yen Movement】Yen to HKD at 4.9; Japanese officials again “export tactics”: ready to take all necessary measures to respond to exchange rate fluctuations.

【11:21】【Iran Crisis】Japan and South Korea stocks hit “Black Monday”; Korean stocks fall 5%, triggering sixth “Sidecar” mechanism this year; Nikkei drops over 2,600 points.

【10:56】【AI+Chips】Elon Musk: Terafab project to land in Austin, jointly operated by Tesla and SpaceX.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Final ultimatum countdown: Trump and Iran threaten to strike civilian infrastructure; oil volatile (updating).

【07:30】【Market Outlook】Focus on Middle East conflict, watch Fed officials’ comments; US March manufacturing PMI due Tuesday.

【07:30】Iran conflict intensifies; Trump says “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Oil fluctuates; Dow drops over 600 points at one point; US 6-month Treasury yield hits high; market expects 40% chance of rate hike in September. Dow closes down 443 points at 45,577; S&P down 1.51%; Nasdaq down 2.01%.

Market close updates:

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Market summary for last week:

Details on the US stock market close — Trump says he doesn’t want a ceasefire; Dow drops 443 points; US 6-month Treasury yield hits high; 40% chance of September rate hike.