# BlackRock CEO Predicts Outcomes of Iran War

American financial giant BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that if the Iran war persists and oil prices remain elevated, it will have "profound implications" on the global economy. If oil prices reach $150 per barrel, it will trigger a global economic recession.

Fink also predicted two possible outcomes this Iran war could ultimately lead to, and advised nations to be more pragmatic and diversified in their energy structure choices.

## What are the possible outcomes of the Iran war?

BlackRock manages $14 trillion in assets and is one of the largest investors in many major global companies. As one of eight co-founders of the company, Fink has unique insights into the health of the global economy.

Currently, the conflict in the Middle East has triggered severe fluctuations in financial markets, with all investors attempting to assess how energy costs will change.

For Fink, it is still too early to judge the ultimate scale and outcome of this conflict. However, he believes the final result will likely be one of two scenarios:

First, the conflict is resolved, and Iran becomes a nation acceptable to the international community again. In this case, oil prices could fall below pre-war levels.

Second, oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel for years, or even approach $150, which would have profound implications for the global economy and could trigger "a potentially severe and intense economic recession."

## Could solar and wind energy benefit?

Given the elevated risks surrounding oil supply, Fink believes nations need to be more pragmatic in their energy structure choices and fully utilize all available energy resources. Additionally, providing affordable energy is crucial for driving economic growth and improving living standards.

"Rising energy prices represent an extremely unfair tax. They impact the poor more severely than the wealthy."

He also mentioned that if oil prices were to rise to $150 per barrel over the next three to four years, "many countries would rapidly turn to solar energy, and possibly even wind energy."

## Financial crisis won't repeat

Some analysts believe there are signs in current market conditions similar to those preceding the 2007-08 financial crisis: sustained increases in energy prices, and some have found signs of cracks in the financial system.

For instance, the "new bond king" Jeffrey Gundlach recently warned that the overall atmosphere in the private credit market resembles the period before the 2008 financial tsunami. Gundlach stated that the private credit market currently faces enormous redemption pressure and extremely low overall transparency, bearing striking similarities to the 2007 collateralized debt obligation (CDO) bubble.

However, Fink firmly believes the financial disaster of 2007-08 will not repeat, as he thinks today's financial institutions are more robust.

"I see absolutely no similarities to that period," he stated bluntly, "The similarity is zero."

He also stated that the issues affecting certain funds represent only a small portion of the overall market, while mainstream institutions' investments remain strong.