BlackRock CEO: If Oil Prices Soar to $150, the Global Economy Will Fall into Recession!

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns that if oil prices rise to $150 per barrel, it could trigger a global recession.

On Tuesday, Fink told BBC in an exclusive interview that the direction of Middle East conflicts will determine two extreme outcomes for the global energy market. He believes that if tensions with Iran persist and oil prices stay high for a long period, it will have a “profound impact” on the global economy and could lead to a “severe and sharp recession.” BlackRock, managing $14 trillion in assets, provides an important reference for assessing the health of the global economy.

Meanwhile, Fink denied that there is an AI bubble in the current market and dismissed comparisons between today’s market environment and the 2007-2008 financial crisis. He also shared broad views on energy policies, AI development, and labor market transformation.

Oil Price Trends: Two Extreme Scenarios

Fink said it is still too early to determine the final scale and outcome of the Middle East conflict, but he believes the situation could go in two very different directions.

In an optimistic scenario, if the conflict is resolved and Iran is re-integrated into the international community, oil prices could fall below pre-war levels.

In a pessimistic scenario, the opposite could happen. Fink warned that if the conflict with Iran continues, oil prices could stay in the range of “above $100, approaching $150” for years, which would have a “profound impact” on the economy, resulting in “a potentially severe and sharp recession.”

He also pointed out that rising energy prices are essentially a form of “regressive tax,” hitting the poor much harder than the wealthy.

Energy Policy: Pragmatic and Diversified, Cheap Energy Is Key

Facing upward pressure on energy prices, Fink called for countries to adopt a pragmatic approach to energy structure, making full use of all available resources while actively transitioning to alternative energies.

“There’s no doubt we should make good use of existing resources, but at the same time, we must also actively move toward alternative energy sources,” he said.

Fink noted that if oil prices remain at $150 for three to four years, it will accelerate many countries’ transition to solar and wind energy. He emphasized that affordable energy is central to driving economic growth and improving living standards, and no country should rely on a single energy source.

Rejecting the Repetition of the Financial Crisis

Some analysts see similarities between the current market and the pre-2007-2008 financial crisis—rising energy prices and signs of cracks in the financial system. BlackRock itself is among the institutions limiting investor withdrawals from private credit funds.

However, Fink firmly denied these comparisons. “I see no similarities at all,” he said. “The stability of financial institutions today is far beyond what it was then. The affected funds are only a tiny part of the overall market, and institutional demand remains strong.”

Denying the AI Bubble, Energy Costs as the Biggest Bottleneck

Fink remains optimistic about artificial intelligence, explicitly denying that there is a bubble in AI investments. “I don’t think there’s a bubble at all,” he said, “There may be one or two failures in AI, and I fully accept that.”

Last year, BlackRock participated in a consortium that acquired one of the world’s largest data center operators, Aligned Data Centres, for $40 billion. Fink views AI as a race for technological dominance and warns that if the US and Europe do not invest enough, China will gain the upper hand. “I believe building AI capabilities actively is a must.”

He pointed out that the biggest obstacle to expanding AI in the US and Europe is energy costs. He criticized Europe’s “talking without action” on energy initiatives and called for the US to increase solar investments to ensure cheap electricity needed for AI development.

AI and Employment: Reshaping the Workforce

Regarding employment impacts, Fink believes AI will create “a large number of job opportunities,” especially in skilled trades such as electricians, welders, and plumbers, though demand for some traditional office jobs may decline.

He called for a reassessment of the education system’s focus. He said that after World War II, the US made “going to college” a standard, but “we may have overdone it.” Society needs to rebalance the emphasis on vocational training, giving equal respect to technical trades and traditional academic paths. “We should be proud of these careers—plumber and electrician careers can be just as successful.”

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