Old Faith and Present Risk: Mike Novogratz Discusses the Real Threat of Quantum Computing to Bitcoin

Galaxy Digital’s CEO recently shared a perceptive view during the earnings call—that market fears over the quantum computing threat are greatly exaggerated. The industry veteran believes that while quantum technology is a long-term issue, the Bitcoin network has enough technical resilience to handle this challenge. Mike Novogratz’s stance contrasts with some Wall Street institutions’ cautious approach, which has already begun reducing crypto exposure.

Interpreting the Quantum Threat: Exaggerated Panic vs. Technical Preparedness

Mike Novogratz stated during the call, “Quantum technology has often been used as an excuse to justify certain decisions.” He further explained his position: in the long term, quantum computing won’t pose an irreversible threat to cryptocurrencies. This view is based on a key understanding—that the Bitcoin network can proactively mitigate risks by deploying quantum-resistant code.

The Galaxy executive emphasized that even if quantum computing becomes a reality, the Bitcoin community has ample time to implement necessary upgrades. He noted, “As we approach the era of quantum computing, resistance will strengthen continuously, and Bitcoin code will be adjusted in a timely manner.” This directly addresses the core issue—that the problem isn’t a lack of technical capability but rather cognitive bias leading to excessive panic.

However, market concerns are not unfounded. Just a month ago, Jefferies’ global equity strategist Christopher Wood withdrew 10% of his Bitcoin holdings from his model portfolio citing the quantum computing threat. This decision reflects real anxiety among institutional investors—despite experts generally believing that truly threatening quantum computers are decades away.

Recently, Coinbase publicly acknowledged that quantum computing could pose long-term risks to the crypto market, and the Ethereum Foundation has prioritized post-quantum security this month, forming a dedicated team to address this threat. These measures indicate that, even with Novogratz’s optimistic outlook, industry efforts to prepare are steadily progressing.

OG Holders’ Shift: From Belief to Cash-Out

Another key topic during the call was the selling behavior of early Bitcoin holders—so-called “OGs.” Last year, Galaxy facilitated a major transaction worth $9 billion involving over 80,000 BTC, originating from early Bitcoin adopters. The sellers framed it as part of estate planning, but it sparked reflection within the crypto community—are once steadfast believers beginning to waver?

Novogratz believes this shift is real. He observed, “Many early supporters adhered strongly to the ‘HODL’ philosophy, refusing to sell their Bitcoin. But that fervor has waned, and we’re starting to see some sell-offs.” He further analyzed the psychological mechanism: “Once early supporters start selling, it creates a chain reaction—selling a little here, then a little there—making it harder to hold on.”

This analysis captures the core of market psychology—the transition from collective faith to individual rational decision-making. Assets held for years, after long-term appreciation, naturally lead to profit-taking. This shift signals an evolving psychological foundation in the crypto asset market.

New Market Variables: Iran Situation and Price Trends

Shortly after Novogratz’s comments, new market drivers emerged. Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 mark and maintained most of its gains after President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure. This policy signal eased geopolitical risk premiums, giving risk assets a breather.

Meanwhile, major altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin rose about 5%, while crypto mining-related stocks gained alongside broader equity markets, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each up about 1.2%.

However, uncertainties remain. Analysts suggest Bitcoin’s next move depends on several key factors: oil price stability, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz supporting a retest of $74,000–$76,000, or worsening conditions that could push the price back to the mid-$65,000s. This uncertainty reminds investors that the market is still in a tug-of-war of multiple forces.

Conclusion: Rational Voices vs. Market Reality

Novogratz represents a rational voice grounded in technological certainty and long-term perspective. His assertion—that quantum threats exist but are manageable—offers an alternative framework for a market caught in panic. Yet, actions by Jefferies, Coinbase, and the Ethereum Foundation show that professional investors and tech teams are not complacent; they continue to reinforce defenses.

Throughout this process, the psychological foundation of the Bitcoin market is evolving. From early OG holders cashing out profits to new institutional cautiousness, from concerns over technological risks to geopolitical influences, Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly complex market. Novogratz’s viewpoint reminds us that sometimes, panic itself is the greatest risk, and rational technical analysis can often be drowned out by market sentiment.