Not Just Futures Fluctuations? Prediction Markets Also Hint That an "Insider" Knew Trump Was Going to Post

Amid speculation about potential insider trading behind former President Trump’s social media post last night, the situation is rapidly escalating…

Just after 7 a.m. Eastern Time, Trump posted on Truth Social stating that he has ordered a five-day pause on all military strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure. His reason was that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in “productive dialogue aimed at thoroughly and comprehensively resolving our hostile status.”

Following this post, global financial markets reversed their previous overnight trends sharply and markedly. However, signs indicate that before Trump publicly disclosed this information, several accounts on the prediction platform Polymarket had already heavily bet that the war would end this month…

It is reported that up to ten newly opened accounts on Polymarket have invested tens of thousands of dollars in contracts related to “U.S.-Iran Ceasefire,” betting that a ceasefire will occur before March 31 or April 15. These accounts have collectively wagered about $160,000 on a ceasefire, and if an agreement is reached by the end of this month, they could net over $1 million in profits.

These accounts were first identified on Sunday by a user named Lirrato on X (formerly Twitter), and later shared by PolymarketHistory.

Since Trump’s Monday post, these ten accounts’ related market positions have gained over $300,000 in unrealized profits.

You might think this is just a coincidence. But among these ten identified accounts, one called “NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS” is particularly intriguing. This account was created in late February, with its first two bets being $7,600 on the U.S. striking Iran before February 28, and $11,283 on an attack before March 1. It has won over $85,000 from these bets.

Now, this account has bet $8,005 on a ceasefire before March 31, and added a bet of $15,614 on a ceasefire before April 15. The value of these two bets has already increased by over $30,000.

The timing and record of these bets have led some to suspect—are these Polymarket accounts owned by insiders, possibly individuals with political connections to the U.S. or Iran, who are aware of current diplomatic developments not yet known to the public?

Ben Yorke, a former CoinTelegraph researcher now developing an AI trading platform called Starchild, said these wallets “absolutely seem like they are controlled by people with inside information.”

Many online crypto observers and experts point out that these bets show signs of insider trading—both because they were placed at very low market prices (reflecting a low probability of the event at the time), and because some accounts appear to belong to the same investor, attempting to hide their identity by spreading bets across multiple wallets.

Yorke noted, “Usually, when you see someone splitting up wallets and deliberately obfuscating their identity, there are two possibilities: either a large investor is trying to protect their position from market impact, or it’s insider trading.”

Currently, the probability of a ceasefire before March 31 on Polymarket has risen sharply in recent days, from 6% on March 21 to 24% on Monday. Over $21 million in bets are placed on this outcome.

Are futures movements an isolated case?

In fact, Caixin reported earlier today that before Trump’s post on Monday, between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. New York time, about 6,200 Brent and WTI crude futures contracts changed hands—just 15 minutes before Trump’s statement. Rough estimates suggest these crude oil trades had a nominal value of about $580 million.

Around 6:50 a.m. New York time, trading volume in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s S&P 500 mini futures suddenly surged, breaking the previously quiet pre-market activity. Due to typically low liquidity in pre-market trading, this spike became one of the largest trading moments of the day so far.

The surge in trading volume for these stock index and crude oil futures has caught the attention of many Wall Street traders, especially given the lack of obvious catalysts at the time.

The same early bets in prediction markets seem to suggest that the futures market movements are not isolated. Over the past few months, prediction market companies have been embroiled in scandals related to insider trading. A recent example is a Polymarket trader who bet over $400,000 on U.S. military action in Venezuela earlier this year and profited from it. A few days after placing the bet, the U.S. announced the arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

Another prediction platform, Kalshi, recently banned two traders for insider trading—its first public disclosure of an investigation into such activities on its platform.

On Monday, Polymarket announced updates to its insider trading rules. The new rules explicitly prohibit trading based on stolen confidential information, illegal insider tips, and trading when users have the ability to influence event outcomes.

Polymarket’s Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar stated, “The prosperity of markets is built on transparency. Strengthening these rules makes our expectations for all participants on both platforms very clear and highlights the compliance infrastructure we have established.”