Cryptocurrency Market Under Pressure Adjusting, Bitcoin's Positive Correlation with Nasdaq Signals New Direction

Risk assets are broadly pulling back, and the cryptocurrency market is experiencing turbulence accordingly. According to the latest data, Bitcoin is currently priced at $70,510, up 2.97% from the previous day, but it still hasn’t escaped the drag of the tech sector’s decline. More notably, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq Index has undergone a profound shift—from negative correlation (-0.68) to positive correlation (+0.72)—a structural change that has sparked widespread discussion in the market.

This reversal reflects a marginal deterioration in risk appetite within the crypto market. Currently, Nasdaq futures are down 0.55%, gold has fallen 2.4%, and concerns over AI and its spillover effects are intensifying. In this environment, cryptocurrencies once considered “independent assets” are increasingly being incorporated into the risk asset framework, moving in tandem with tech stocks.

Bitcoin Under Pressure, but the Decline Is Relatively Controlled

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has fallen 1.25% to hover around $68,000. While this correction isn’t extreme, it is significant—marking a shift from “alternative asset” to “risk asset” in the crypto market.

The sharp decline in gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, by 2.4%, further indicates the current market sentiment. Since hitting a record high of $5,600 on January 28, gold has experienced a 21.5% correction, and its current price of $4,928 has yet to establish stable support above $5,000.

The Mystery of Correlation Reversal: Why Is BTC Becoming More “Tech-Like”?

Since February 3, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has risen from -0.68 to +0.72. Behind this change lies a deep structural adjustment in the crypto market.

In recent months, institutional participation in cryptocurrencies has been increasing. With the proliferation of spot ETFs and options, BTC’s linkage with mainstream assets has naturally strengthened. When the tech sector declines due to AI risk reassessment, institutions holding BTC as part of their portfolios are forced to reduce their positions simultaneously, further reinforcing the positive correlation.

Data shows Bitcoin’s dominance fluctuates between 57.4% and 60.1%, with altcoins following BTC’s lead more closely. This “rise together, fall together” pattern indicates a high degree of synchronization in liquidity and sentiment across the entire crypto market.

Sentiment Eases, but Defensive Mindset Remains; Futures Market Reveals True Signals

Although market liquidity is improving, participants’ defensive stance has not dissipated. Over the past 24 hours, crypto futures have seen capital outflows, with the total nominal open interest dropping to $93 billion—its lowest in months. Meanwhile, exchanges have liquidated $229 billion in leveraged positions, predominantly long (bullish) positions.

On Deribit options platform, put options for Bitcoin and Ethereum are consistently priced higher than call options, reflecting ongoing concerns about further price declines. However, compared to two weeks ago, defensive strength has eased somewhat, indicating a marginal recovery in market sentiment.

Implied volatility indices for BTC and ETH have fallen sharply from their monthly highs, suggesting expectations of extreme risk are cooling—often a sign that panic phase may be nearing its end.

Altcoin Divergence Intensifies: Structural Opportunities and Risks Coexist

The performance gap between meme coins and mainstream tokens is widening. Notable meme coins like PEPE, DOGE, and TRUMP have led the market correction, with 24-hour changes of +1.97%, +2.22%, and +1.11%, respectively. Although recent data shows these tokens have reversed their downward trend, they remain important indicators of market sentiment.

Overall, altcoins have declined between 3.5% and 4.5% over the past 24 hours, with DOGE futures’ open interest down 4%, leading most mainstream assets lower. PEPE, LINK, and AVAX open interest have decreased by 3% to 5%.

It’s worth noting that previously strong performers are showing clear divergence. MORPHO, which surged 23.5% earlier, has now fallen 7.42% over the past week (the original text indicated a rise, but latest data shows a reversal). Similarly, privacy coin ZEC, which was up 19%, has now dropped 18.4%. This rapid shift indicates that speculative enthusiasm based on technical or conceptual factors is waning.

LayerZero (ZRO), after announcing partnerships with Citadel Securities and DTCC, was expected to gain momentum, but over the past week, its price has only declined 1.40%, suggesting market expectations for this collaboration have been largely priced in.

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid (HYPE) futures open interest has fallen to 44.45 million HYPE, the lowest since early December last year, indicating profit-taking by investors during recent market adjustments. SUI has performed relatively resilient, up 2.71% in 24 hours, while ASTR has declined 1.43%, as the market awaits new bullish catalysts.

Derivatives Signal: Leverage Withdrawals in Large Scale, Market Begins De-Risking

Changes in the futures market often precede spot market signals. Over the past 24 hours, open interest in crypto futures has decreased by 1.5%, reflecting active reduction of leverage exposure by market participants.

Futures positions across multiple mainstream coins are shrinking in unison, indicating that whether driven by bearish sentiment or forced liquidations, the market is systematically de-risking. This can be an early sign of a bottom, but more confirmation is needed.

Key Focus for the Future: Oil Prices and Geopolitical Repricing

Bitcoin previously surged above $70,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause in strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, maintaining most of the gains. Altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin rose about 5%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained roughly 1.2%.

This episode reminds the market that geopolitical events impacting energy prices will ultimately influence the entire risk asset market, and cryptocurrencies are no exception. Analysts generally believe that Bitcoin’s next move depends on oil price trends and whether the Strait of Hormuz shipping remains stable—if the situation stabilizes, BTC could test the $74,000–$76,000 range again; if not, prices may be dragged back toward the mid-$60,000s.

The crypto market is currently in a “wait-and-see” phase, with technical, capital, and policy signals needing further integration. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic developments.