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In long-term value investing operations, the approach is:
1. Market pessimism is the norm, but you should choose to be an optimist against a pessimistic backdrop.
2. Always keep cash on hand. Since you don't know what tomorrow will bring, cash is the best bullish option.
3. Even for good companies, you need to consider price, valuation, and timing. Market value reversion is a rare occurrence. When you see a good company, you can choose to buy blindly without timing, but understand that the probability of further appreciation from reasonable valuation is far smaller than the probability of decline, and under normal circumstances, the downside could easily exceed 50%.
4. Never use leverage, regardless of how pessimistic the environment is, and even if you believe valuations are already very cheap.
Many people make the mistake of being naively optimistic and end up suffering the market's harshest punishment:
1. When enterprise value occasionally reverts, they think the market has been corrected, then wait for the music and dance to resume at high premiums.
2. When valuation is reasonable, they can't wait and shoot all their bullets. When market cap is suppressed, they think it's undervalued and become righteously greedy—even adding leverage.