Bitcoin Recovers Above $62,000, But U.S. Investor Demand Signals Show 40 Consecutive Days of Warning

Bitcoin has rebounded about 15% from its early February lows, returning to levels above $62,000. Meanwhile, demand indicators focused on the U.S. market continue to show serious weakness. The U.S. Bitcoin premium index observed mainly on Coinbase has remained in negative territory for over 40 days, marking the longest streak since 2023, suggesting that this is not just a temporary correction but a sign of structural demand deficiency.

Why the Coinbase Premium Index Has Not Exited Negative Territory for Over 40 Days

The Coinbase premium index measures the difference between prices on the U.S.'s largest exchange and the global average market price. It has been a key indicator tracking U.S. institutional investors and dollar-denominated flows. Currently, it is experiencing an unprecedented negative streak lasting more than four weeks.

Historically, the longest negative premium was about 30 days in fall 2025, which ended when U.S. buyers suddenly re-entered the market. However, the current 40-day continuous negative premium indicates a much more serious situation. Although the index has slightly improved from -0.22% to -0.05%, it remains far from the positive levels associated with historical accumulation phases.

The Significance of the Divergence Between Price Rise and Demand Composition

A key point is the change in buyer composition as Bitcoin’s price surpasses $62,000. Normally, a significant price increase during U.S. trading hours would improve the Coinbase premium. However, most of this rise is believed to have been driven by outside U.S. trading hours or liquidity channels outside Coinbase—namely, overseas buyers and over-the-counter (OTC) trades.

This reflects the cautious stance of U.S. investors toward market recovery, which is also evidenced by the fact that the keyword “bitcoin zero” reached an all-time high in U.S. Google searches. While global search interest remains flat, the surge in interest in such highly bearish keywords in the U.S. strongly suggests regional investor sentiment is cooling.

Geopolitical Risks and Short-Term Price Movements

Following easing of geopolitical tensions in mid-March, Bitcoin surged above $70,000, maintaining much of its gains. This was partly driven by U.S. President Trump’s announcement to pause attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days, which temporarily eased risk aversion.

In tandem, altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin rose about 5%. Cryptocurrency mining stocks also followed the broader stock market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rising approximately 1.2%, indicating correlated movements.

The Next Price Range Depends on Oil and Strait of Hormuz Stability

Analysts agree that Bitcoin’s near-term direction hinges on developments in the Middle East, particularly oil prices and the security of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. In a positive scenario, this could support a retest of the $74,000–$76,000 range. Conversely, renewed geopolitical tensions or supply concerns could push Bitcoin back toward the mid-$62,000s, presenting downside risks.

Until U.S. demand fully recovers, structural improvements beyond mere price recovery are needed. How geopolitical triggers influence this will determine the quality of the consolidation around the $61,000 level.