Dialogue with Africa | Middle East Tensions Turbulent Global Markets, What Challenges Does the African Continent Face?

(Source: CGTN)

Editor’s note

“Dialogue Africa” is a weekly interview program that brings together guests from Africa and around the world to discuss hot topics in Africa and global issues, amplifying African voices and presenting diverse perspectives and independent thinking. This episode focuses on the current challenges faced by Africa amid the backdrop of the US and Israel’s war against Iran, and explores how to respond to the spillover effects.

The full reading time is approximately 5 minutes.

As conflicts in the Middle East continue to escalate, the spillover effects of the US-Israel-Iran war are becoming increasingly evident. Experts warn that Africa may face a series of chain reactions, impacting its economic stability and regional security. Under the shadow of war, what impacts might Africa face? And how can it buffer against this geopolitical turbulence?

Emerging Pressures

The Strait of Hormuz is the “throat channel” for oil exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries and a strategic point crucial to global energy security. If blocked, the impact will quickly spill over far beyond the Middle East. Since the outbreak of this conflict, international oil prices have risen sharply, triggering chain reactions in Africa: rising living costs, increasing inflation pressures, and noticeable effects.

Chukwumeire Okriek, Professor of Global Governance and Public Policy at the University of Bristol, pointed out that the impact of this war on African countries is clearly uneven.

For countries relying on energy imports to sustain their economies, the situation is particularly severe. Kenya, Senegal, Morocco, and Ghana are especially sensitive to rising oil prices. Higher energy costs will inevitably transmit to transportation, manufacturing, and other sectors, leading to broader economic pressures, with inflation risks being the most prominent. As transportation and production costs rise in tandem, residents’ real purchasing power in these countries is expected to shrink significantly.

Mustafa Yousuf Ali, founder and chairman of the Horn of Africa Strategic Studies Institute, also noted that although some countries initially did not experience significant shocks, as supply tightens, certain regions in Africa are already feeling the direct pressure of rising fuel prices.

Meanwhile, chain effects beyond energy cannot be ignored. Africa’s already fragile food security system, heavily dependent on Middle Eastern imports of fertilizer, faces greater uncertainty under current circumstances. Additionally, remittances are also being squeezed—millions of African workers in the Middle East are experiencing tighter remittance channels due to the war, further increasing the financial pressure on their home countries.

On March 17, 2026, MarineTraffic’s map shows real-time ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. After the US and Israel launched large-scale military operations against Iran, Iran “partially blocked” the Strait of Hormuz. / Visual China

Short-term “Benefits” and Long-term Resilience

In response to rising oil prices, major African oil-exporting countries like Nigeria, Angola, and Algeria may benefit from increased fiscal revenues.

Recently, Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar stated that amid disruptions to global energy supplies, Nigeria’s untapped resource reserves could become an important source of crude oil and natural gas.

However, Okriek also warned that African oil-producing countries should not be overly optimistic about rising oil prices. While short-term gains can boost revenues, these benefits are often eroded by long-standing structural inefficiencies.

“Many African countries, even oil exporters, rely heavily on refined oil imports. Therefore, the gains from higher crude oil prices are likely offset by increased costs of refined oil imports and fertilizer prices,” he said.

At the same time, adjustments in global shipping routes could bring some “unexpected benefits.” As some shipping companies choose to reroute via South Africa, the port of Durban has the potential to become a more strategic international shipping hub. But Okriek emphasized that this change also means longer supply chains, higher transportation costs, and ultimately higher prices for goods.

He further pointed out that history repeatedly shows that short-term “benefits” do not automatically translate into long-term economic resilience. Only by effectively investing these gains into infrastructure and industrial capacity building can they truly become sustainable growth drivers.

On March 9, 2026, a fuel station worker works at a gas station in Abuja. Due to the US and Israel’s military conflict with Iran, Nigeria’s gasoline prices have risen, leading to increased transportation costs. / Visual China

Changing World Order

The US and Israel’s strikes against Iran have shaken the rules-based international order.

As the global order accelerates its reshaping, many African countries remain vulnerable. Against the backdrop of mounting economic and food security risks, “waiting and watching” is no longer a tolerable strategy.

In the energy sector, compared to developed economies with strategic reserves capable of responding to shocks, some African countries still lack the necessary infrastructure to stabilize prices through reserves. Meanwhile, Africa, which should have a comparative advantage in renewable energy resources, has yet to fully develop these potentials.

Okriek pointed out, “Africa should take this as an opportunity for deep reflection. Africa has some of the world’s best solar resources, yet only about 2% of global renewable energy investments are directed here. If we continue to ignore wind, solar, and geothermal resources and remain dependent on oil, we will continue to be exposed to similar shocks.”

Zenaat Adam, Deputy Executive Director of Africa-Middle East Center, further emphasized that the era of passive waiting is over. To prevent external shocks from translating into internal political instability, Africa must move from macro-level consensus to more effective regional cooperation mechanisms.

She called on the Global South to strengthen cooperation to prevent “hegemonic interference.”

“If we cannot achieve unity within the African Union framework and continue to allow external forces to interfere in how we manage regional relations and internal conflicts, we will neither solve problems nor seize opportunities for our own development.”