Trump Announces Temporary De-escalation of Iran Conflict, Bitcoin Rises 4% in Short Term, but Derivatives Data Shows Weak Bullish Confidence

ChainCatcher News reports that after Donald Trump announced a temporary de-escalation of tensions with Iran and sought negotiations, Bitcoin briefly rose 4%, oil prices fell 14% to $85 per barrel WTI, and the S&P 500 increased by 3%. However, Bitcoin derivatives data continues to send skeptical signals, and the market lacks confidence in the $68,000 support level.

In the futures market, the 2-month Bitcoin futures annualized premium on Monday was 2%, below the typical 4% to 8% range associated with longer settlement cycles in a neutral state, indicating insufficient bullish leverage demand. This lack of confidence has persisted over the past month, even though prices briefly rebounded near $76,000 previously.

In the options market, Deribit’s April 24-expiring $80,000 call options are priced at 0.017 BTC (about $1,207). Under the conditions of 31 days to expiry and 48% implied volatility, the market prices the probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 during this period at only 20%. In a typically optimistic crypto market, such a low expectation of a 13% increase within a month is rare.

The Federal Reserve’s pause on interest rate cuts makes it difficult for investors to exit fixed income positions, and traders are likely to remain cautious until oil prices fall below $75. Unless additional catalysts emerge, the likelihood of Bitcoin traders turning bullish remains low, especially given the ongoing lack of conviction in on-chain data and derivatives indicators.