Vitol Group, Commodities Trading Giant: Oil Market Highly Focused on Strait of Hormuz Developments, Volatility Far Exceeds Historical Levels

Bloomberg News has learned that Vitol Group, a major commodities trading giant,’s CEO of the Americas, Ben Marshall, stated that the oil market is currently pricing in the Strait of Hormuz reopening sooner rather than later. He said Monday that the market is “almost entirely focused” on when more oil will resume flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

As Marshall made these comments, oil prices plummeted. U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that the U.S. and Iran “could reach an agreement within 5 days or even sooner.” Trump also said the U.S. is “very interested in reaching an agreement with Iran.” Despite Iran denying any dialogue with the U.S., oil markets experienced sharp volatility after Trump’s remarks, with global benchmark Brent crude futures falling below $100 per barrel for the first time in nearly two weeks.

Marshall stated that while any peace agreement would further depress oil prices, if the Strait of Hormuz fails to fully restore oil export capacity, approximately 10 million barrels per day of supply will continue to be excluded from the market. He said, “Another week means the market can’t afford to lose another 70 million barrels of oil.” He added, “If oil prices stay above $100 a barrel, demand will be damaged; if prices rise above $120, severe demand destruction will occur.”

Additionally, Marshall noted that as the conflict persists, Asian buyers are increasingly turning to U.S. crude oil. He said, “Their preferences for types of crude may be being replaced by delivery speed — meaning, whoever can deliver spot cargo the fastest, they are more likely to buy from.”

When markets diverge, traders can profit by shifting cargo and supplies to shortages. However, this also involves risks. Marshall and Gary Pedersen, CEO of Gunvor Group, another major commodities trading firm, both highlighted this. Pedersen said, “The situation is changing very rapidly. You might be long one minute, but then a new piece of news comes out, and suddenly you’re short.”

Since the conflict erupted in late February, four of the six largest price swings in Brent crude futures have occurred during this period. Marshall said, “This is an extremely difficult time.” He added that, compared to market disruptions during the pandemic, this current event is even less predictable. He said, “The impact of what we’re experiencing now — and I don’t say this lightly — is on a completely different scale than other risks the market has faced before.”

Strait of Hormuz Disruption Impacts Global Oil Supply

As the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week, hopes that the disruption — with transportation through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted — would be measured in days rather than weeks or months have been shattered.

Due to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has largely come to a standstill, with over 150 oil and cargo ships forced to anchor outside the strait. JPMorgan warns that this closure is not just a temporary inflationary shock but a structural blow capable of causing a global economic standstill. Deutsche Bank’s scenario analysis suggests that if the blockade causes substantial damage to energy infrastructure, oil prices could spike to $200 per barrel in reality, not just in theory. Bank of America’s commodities and derivatives research head also warned that if the Strait remains blocked for several months, the global economy will inevitably slide into a deep recession, with Brent and WTI prices potentially soaring above $200 per barrel.

With the duration of the disruption lengthening and structural concerns over global supply concentration intensifying, Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for 2026. In its latest outlook, the bank assumes that oil transportation through this critical route will operate at only 5% of normal levels for up to six weeks — a more severe and prolonged disruption than previously expected. Goldman further estimates that restoring transportation will take an additional month, indicating a gradual rather than immediate recovery.

Goldman analysts said this revised scenario reflects a reassessment of regional geopolitical risks, with ongoing conflict increasing the likelihood of long-term supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz is a key artery for global energy markets; even partial disruptions can significantly impact prices.

Beyond short-term interruptions, Goldman emphasizes longer-term structural shifts in the oil market. The bank notes that the high concentration of global production and spare capacity in a few countries could lead to sustained risk premiums in oil prices. Analysts say this dynamic is likely to prompt governments and market participants to bolster strategic reserves, exerting upward pressure on long-term oil prices.

Based on these developments, Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast from $77 to $85 per barrel. Its WTI forecast for 2026 has been increased from $72 to $79 per barrel.

This adjustment highlights that geopolitical tensions are not only affecting short-term prices but are also reshaping long-term expectations for supply security and pricing dynamics. Goldman analysts note that even if transportation eventually normalizes, the vulnerabilities exposed by recent disruptions could keep the market’s structural risk premium elevated.