Saylor draws the parallel between Bitcoin and the valley of despair that Apple went through

Michael Saylor is comparing the current Bitcoin cycle to a critical chapter in Apple’s history. This is not just a casual analogy — for MicroStrategy founder and the largest public Bitcoin holder, this comparison reveals a fundamental truth: every successful tech investment goes through periods of deep recession. What differentiates winners from losers is the ability to traverse these valleys of despair without losing conviction.

The approximately 45% drop in Bitcoin from its recent peak of $126,080 mirrors exactly what Apple faced between 2012 and 2013, when its shares fell 45% and traded with a price/earnings ratio below 10. At that time, the iPhone was already indispensable to over a billion people — but the market still disbelieved. It took seven years of patience, along with strategic support from Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett, for Apple to fully recover its previous valuation.

The 45% cycle: a mandatory rite of passage

Saylor insists that there is no example of a successful tech investment without going through a correction of this magnitude. “There really is no precedent for a successful tech investment where it wasn’t necessary to face a 45% decline and cross that valley of despair,” he said in a recent appearance on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories Podcast.

The Bitcoin market has already experienced this contraction for 137 days, but Saylor makes it clear that it could extend. “It could take two years, it could take three. If it takes seven years, congratulations. It’s exactly like Apple.” Bitcoin’s current price at $70.46K reflects this volatility, although the asset has recovered 3.65% in the last 24 hours.

Pressure during these periods is real and measurable. On February 5th, when Bitcoin dropped from $70,000 to $60,000 in a single session, the network recorded $3.2 billion in realized losses adjusted per entity, according to Glassnode data. This event surpassed even the Terra Luna collapse as the largest single-day liquidation episode in Bitcoin history.

Why volatility is changing pattern

Saylor identifies fundamental structural changes reshaping this cycle. The migration of derivatives activity from offshore markets to regulated markets in the US is significantly reducing volatility in both directions. What previously could be an 80% drop now compresses to decreases of 40% to 50%.

Another structural factor: traditional banks still refuse to extend substantial credit backed by Bitcoin positions. This restriction forces some investors to turn to the shadow banking system or re-hypothecation structures, creating artificial selling pressure during market stress periods.

Recurring fears: from quantum to Epstein

When asked about technological threats, Saylor downplays the risk posed by quantum computing. For him, it’s just the latest in a long series of cyclical existential narratives — from block size wars to concerns over energy consumption and Chinese dominance in mining. All have garnered attention, but none have managed to derail the network.

Quantum computing, Saylor argues, does not pose an imminent threat and is probably more than a decade away from creating practical risk. When it becomes relevant, government, financial, consumer, and defense systems will have already migrated to post-quantum cryptography. Bitcoin’s software will evolve naturally through global consensus, just as all digital systems worldwide will.

Saylor considers both the quantum narrative and renewed attention to Jeffrey Epstein’s files — used by critics to target Bitcoin Core developers — as mutations of the eternal cycle of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). “It’s not a problem,” Saylor summarized. “I think they were getting tired of quantum FUD and moved on to Epstein FUD.”

The current scenario: new tests ahead

Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 after US President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. Altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin rose about 5%, while mining stocks advanced along with broader equity markets — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each up approximately 1.2%.

Analysts point out that the next move depends on the stability of oil prices and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially supporting a new test of the $74,000 to $76,000 range, or dragging prices back to the $60,000 average if these factors worsen.

Saylor’s outlook remains clear: Bitcoin, like Apple in 2013, is in its valley of despair — and that is precisely where the greatest gains are built.