Bitcoin Index Volatility Intensifies, Repeated Fluctuations Near Technical Resistance Levels

Last week, Bitcoin experienced dramatic price volatility, keeping investors on edge. Currently, the Bitcoin index fluctuates around $70,430, up 3.78% in the past 24 hours, but down 6.4% over the past 7 days. This indicates a complex situation where short-term technical resistance and macroeconomic uncertainties are intertwined.

Resistance Levels Highlighted by Technical Analysts

Recent movements in the Bitcoin index reveal an interesting mathematical pattern. Experts agree that selling pressure is concentrated near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-day moving average. The overlap of these two technical resistance levels occurs around $71,800, and as Bitcoin fails to break through this level, the rebound momentum weakens.

FxPro analysts assess that this upward move is less about a new bullish trend and more about a technical phenomenon called a “short squeeze.” This occurs when traders holding short positions set their stop-loss orders too close to the market price, causing a temporary spike. This suggests that the rally is likely a mechanical liquidation rather than a sustainable upward trend.

Support and Resistance Seen in the Liquidation Heatmap

A microstructure analysis reveals clearer support and resistance zones. Currently, long leverage liquidation clusters are concentrated around $70,000, serving as the first support level for the Bitcoin index. This level, which acted as resistance over the past month, has now become a defense line, reflecting a shift in market sentiment.

Below that, a secondary liquidity pool has formed near $64,000. If this level is broken, the next support zone could be quite far away, so investors should pay close attention to these two levels. If Bitcoin holds above $70,000, it indicates a genuine rebound; if it falls below, a retest of $64,000 is highly likely.

Macroeconomic Headwinds Impeding the Rebound

Technical resistance is not the only issue. The current global economic environment does not support a crypto rally. Recent geopolitical tensions caused Asian stock indices to plunge 6.4%, and MSCI regional indices are expected to record their worst weekly performance since March 2020 during the pandemic. Oil prices are experiencing their largest weekly gain since 2022, and the dollar is at its strongest weekly performance since November 2024.

This environment does not favor a sustained crypto rally. The combination of a strong dollar, high oil prices, and a weak stock market makes continuous gains in the Bitcoin index unlikely. However, during the week, news emerged that the U.S. government was reviewing energy cost measures, leading to a weaker dollar and falling oil prices, which helped trigger the recent rebound.

Altcoins Follow the Correction and Portfolio Reassessment

The weakness in Bitcoin is spreading to altcoins. Ethereum is currently trading around $2,130, down 9.31% over the past 7 days. BNB has fallen 7.09% to $633, and Solana is down 5.14% at $90.37. Notably, Dogecoin plunged 9.68%, the largest drop among altcoins, and XRP declined 8.41%.

The broad correction among altcoins indicates a dependent movement following Bitcoin. Despite the S&P 500 rising about 1.2% and the Nasdaq also up 1.2%, the crypto market has not followed suit, suggesting investors should urgently reconsider their portfolios.

Future Price Scenarios and Key Economic Indicators

Market analysts believe that the next move of the Bitcoin index will depend heavily on two external factors: first, the stability of oil prices, and second, the normalization of maritime shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the strait is effectively paralyzed, and defense authorities have indicated that operations could last from 3 to 8 weeks.

Optimistic scenario: Bitcoin tests the $74,000–$76,000 range again, which would require breaking through technical resistance and easing macroeconomic headwinds. Conservative scenario: the current support at $70,000 breaks, leading to a decline into the mid-$60,000s. Whether Bitcoin can hold this level will likely be a key market turning point in the coming weeks.