【Institutional Strategy】Patiently Await Rebound Opportunities After Sharp Declines

China Securities believes that on Monday, the A-share market opened lower and declined further with wide fluctuations. During the session, industries such as coal, nuclear power, and passenger cars performed relatively well; precious metals, hotels and catering, tourism scenic spots, and components performed weaker. The current core suppressing factor in the market comes from overseas. If the Middle East conflict escalates further, it may trigger a continuous rise in oil prices, intensifying global stagflation pressure. If U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts or even raise interest rates again, putting pressure on global liquidity and risk appetite. Considering the clearer tone of domestic macro policies, the market has a solid bottom support. It is recommended to closely monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments.

CaiXin Securities believes that on Monday, the overseas situation repeatedly suppressed risk appetite, leading to a large-volume adjustment in the A-share main board. In the market, only the coal and oil & gas sectors performed relatively well due to energy crises; other sectors generally declined to varying degrees. From a technical perspective, the market is in an accelerated bottoming-out trend, and a cautious attitude should be maintained in the short term, mainly observing. After clear signs of stabilization appear, appropriate market rebounds can be considered. To stabilize and warm the index in the short term, three signals should be focused on: first, whether there are signs of reversal and recovery in the overseas situation, with particular attention to the Strait of Hormuz traffic and international oil prices; second, when broad-based index ETFs will again see significant volume increases and technical pattern recovery, as this may be a key signal for main funds to enter and bottom fish; third, the emergence of main themes that can boost market sentiment. In the medium term, under the continued “double easing” tone of fiscal and monetary policies, sustained inflow of residents’ savings assets into the market, improvements in listed companies’ performance driven by anti-inflation measures, and ongoing breakthroughs in global AI technology, the foundation of this round of A-share market remains solid. It is expected that the current Middle East conflict will only affect short-term market sentiment and rhythm, not change the market direction. Confidence in the medium- and long-term upward trend remains, and excessive worry is unwarranted.

Hualong Securities believes that on Monday, the A-share market opened sharply lower due to the significant decline in Asia-Pacific stocks, with a brief rebound followed by continued decline. In the market, only the coal sector performed actively; precious metals concepts led the decline, and the tourism sector continued to adjust. After continuous adjustments, the risk of further decline has been largely released, so it is not advisable to sell at low points in the short term. Patience is recommended to wait for a rebound opportunity after the sharp drop.