A Look At Kinsale Capital Group’s (KNSL) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

Simply Wall St

Sat, February 14, 2026 at 7:16 PM GMT+9 3 min read

In this article:

•                                       StockStory Top Pick 
  

  KNSL

  -7.40%

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Recent share performance and context

Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) has recently drawn investor attention after a stretch of weaker share performance, with the stock showing negative returns over the past week, month, past 3 months and year.

Over the past year, Kinsale Capital Group has delivered a total return of about a 17% decline, while year to date the stock is down roughly 5%. Shorter term, the move has been more pronounced, with a 7% decline over the past day and about 10% over the past week.

Looking a bit further back, the stock shows a 6% decline over the past month and about 5% over the past 3 months. By contrast, longer run figures remain positive, with total returns of roughly 12% over three years and about 108% over five years.

See our latest analysis for Kinsale Capital Group.

Put simply, Kinsale Capital Group’s recent momentum has softened, with a weaker short term share price return sitting alongside a still positive multi year total shareholder return profile.

The recent 1 day and 7 day share price declines around the current US$371.32 level suggest investors are reassessing the balance between growth potential and risk, even though the 3 year and 5 year total shareholder returns remain in positive territory.

If this pullback has you looking for other ideas in financials and beyond, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with 23 top founder-led companies.

With the shares around US$371 and metrics like an intrinsic discount of about 30% and a value score of 3, is Kinsale quietly offering a better entry point, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.9% Undervalued

With Kinsale Capital Group last closing at about $371, the most followed narrative pegs fair value closer to $458, anchored on detailed long run cash flow and earnings assumptions discounted at 6.978%.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $499.111 for Kinsale Capital Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $560.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $448.0.

Read the complete narrative.

If you want to see what earnings path and margin profile sit behind that higher fair value line, and how the projected multiple ties it all together, the full narrative explains these elements in detail.

Result: Fair Value of $457.80 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

Story Continues  

However, the story could change if softer property and casualty pricing persists, or if catastrophe exposed homeowners lines experience outsized losses that pressure underwriting results.

Find out about the key risks to this Kinsale Capital Group narrative.

Another View: Earnings Multiple Paints A Richer Picture

The cash flow based fair value of about $534.16 suggests Kinsale Capital Group may be undervalued at $371.32, but the earnings multiple tells a different story. The shares trade on a P/E of 18.2x, compared with a fair ratio of 13.8x, 12.3x for the US Insurance industry and 9.1x for peers. This indicates you are paying a premium today even if the DCF suggests there is potential upside, so which signal would you lean on?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:KNSL P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

Build Your Own Kinsale Capital Group Narrative

If you are not fully on board with this view or you prefer to rely on your own work, you can test the assumptions, adjust the inputs and build a personalised thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Kinsale Capital Group.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include KNSL.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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