The authenticity of US-Iran "negotiations" is hard to discern, Bitcoin is jumping around wildly!

A confusing “diplomatic drama” has caused global capital markets to experience extreme swings within 24 hours. While everyone focuses on crude oil and gold, a familiar figure is quietly regaining ground.

The US-Iran situation has undergone a shocking turnaround in just one trading day. After Trump announced a “delay in strikes,” the initial market reaction was uniform: crude oil plummeted sharply, gold surged briefly. This aligns with traditional safe-haven logic—if tensions ease, oil prices fall; if uncertainty remains, gold rises.

But when you shift your focus away from traditional assets, a more intriguing picture emerges: Bitcoin, once mocked by many as a “bubble,” is quietly rising amid this geopolitical storm.

1. Market Recap: Rollercoaster caused by a single tweet

Before Monday’s US market open, Trump dropped a “bomb” on Truth Social: he said the US and Iran had “productive” talks over the past two days, and he has instructed the Defense Department to delay military strikes on Iran’s energy facilities by five days.

The market’s immediate response was textbook:

● Crude oil collapse: WTI and Brent both plunged over 10%, retreating from near $100 to around $89

● Gold spike: Spot gold surged over $100, briefly returning to the $4,400 level

● US dollar under pressure: Dollar index fell about 100 points during the day

● European stocks rose: Major European indices turned positive

Iran’s response was dramatic. Official media denied any direct contact with the US, stating “no direct contact or communication through intermediaries.” Mehr News Agency directly pointed out that Trump’s remarks aim to lower energy prices and buy time for military plans.

Regardless of the truth, markets have already voted with real money. Signals of easing tensions are enough to trigger large-scale position adjustments.

2. Bitcoin’s independent rally: from following to leading

Amid this tug-of-war, Bitcoin’s performance is particularly notable.

● Price action: Bitcoin rebounded strongly from an intraday low of $67,445, regaining the $70,000 level. As of March 24, BTC traded around $70,700, up over 4% in 24 hours.

● Volume: Total crypto market cap increased by 3% to $2.53 trillion. Bitcoin futures traded $94 billion, spot volume about $7.5 billion, indicating a significant uptick in market activity.

● Market structure: Bitcoin’s market share rose to 58.42%, up 0.28% from the previous day, showing capital flowing into core assets.

● Notably, Bitcoin’s rally occurs against a backdrop where gold is experiencing its largest monthly decline in the 21st century. Since March, spot gold has dropped over $1,000, falling below $4,100. Some analysts suggest that recent gold movements resemble high-beta risk assets like Bitcoin, diverging from traditional safe-haven logic.

What does this imply? Capital is redefining what “safe haven” means.

3. AiCoin perspective: three dimensions to understand this rally

As a professional crypto data platform, AiCoin captures market pulse through multi-dimensional data. Analyzing this rally with AiCoin’s framework, three key dimensions deserve attention:

Dimension 1: Capital flow monitoring—who is buying?

● A noteworthy data point: despite Bitcoin’s price rise, funds into crypto investment products slowed to $230 million last week. CoinShares reports this is related to market interpretations of a “hawkish pause” by the Fed, not purely geopolitical factors.

● Meanwhile, Strategy continues to buy. On Monday, they disclosed purchasing 1,031 BTC at an average price of $74,326, totaling $76.6 million, with holdings reaching 762,099 BTC.

AiCoin’s platform can monitor major fund flows and ETF movements in real-time, helping users determine whether the rebound is driven by retail or institutional buying.

Dimension 2: Derivatives market—how is leverage moving?

● AiCoin data shows the CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) in derivatives has turned negative, indicating sellers are regaining control. Funding rates are positive but open interest has slightly decreased, suggesting traders are reducing leverage while cautiously building long positions.

● Options markets also show defensive signals: 25-delta skew rising, indicating increased demand for puts as hedges.

AiCoin’s derivatives dashboard provides real-time monitoring of funding rates, long/short ratios, and liquidation data to gauge market sentiment overheating.

Dimension 3: On-chain data—who holds the chips?

● On-chain data shows long-term holders are still anchoring supply; active addresses remain weak, and transfer volume continues to decline. The MVRV ratio has compressed to low levels, indicating holders are increasingly sensitive to further declines.

● This suggests the main market players are still short-term speculators rather than long-term believers.

AiCoin integrates on-chain and exchange data to offer a comprehensive view from blockchain activity to trading flows.

4. Hidden clues in Trump’s remarks about Bitcoin

Beyond immediate market reactions, Trump’s statements contain subtle signals related to crypto:

Clue 1: Strait of Hormuz and energy costs

● Trump threatened to attack Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened. Iran responded that it would attack all energy facilities in the Gulf. Closing this critical oil transit route would send energy prices soaring.

● Energy costs are a major variable for Bitcoin mining. Stable energy supply and reasonable electricity prices are essential for miners. Every fluctuation in the Strait’s situation influences Bitcoin’s hash rate costs via energy prices.

Clue 2: Potential challenger to US dollar hegemony

● Trump’s proposal for “joint management” of the Strait aims to maintain the US-led oil trade system. Bitcoin, as a non-sovereign asset,’s long-term narrative is built on an alternative to the dollar system.

● When geopolitical conflicts weaken dollar credibility, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” story gains traction. This may partly explain why Bitcoin has outperformed gold in this cycle.

Clue 3: Trump’s own attitude towards crypto

● Notably, Trump’s stance on cryptocurrencies is evolving. He once called Bitcoin a “scam,” but recently has made several positive comments about digital assets. This shift itself is a key market sentiment indicator.

5. Professional insights: how AiCoin helps you seize such opportunities

Events like “Trump’s tweet triggers market chaos” are common in crypto markets. To capitalize on such moves, you need:

1. Multi-asset real-time monitoring: correlations among oil, gold, USD, and Bitcoin are not static. AiCoin’s multi-asset dashboard helps spot cross-market arbitrage opportunities.

2. Precise key levels: Bitcoin’s $70,000 is a psychological barrier. Staying above could open room to $80,000; breaking below might target $60,000. AiCoin’s automated technical analysis alerts you to critical support and resistance levels.

3. Data-driven narrative validation: Trump’s “negotiation results” are uncertain, Iran denies talks. In such fog, only data is truthful. AiCoin offers on-chain, exchange flow, and capital movement tools for verification.

4. Risk management upfront: Event-driven moves are highly volatile. AiCoin’s risk module helps set proper stop-loss and take-profit levels to avoid emotional trading.

5. Outlook: where is Bitcoin headed next?

In the short term, Bitcoin’s trajectory depends on two factors:

● First, the progress of US-Iran negotiations. If no deal is reached within the five-day window, Trump’s “full-scale strikes” threat may materialize, pressuring risk assets again.

● Second, Fed monetary policy signals. Market interpretations of a “hawkish pause” have already slowed crypto inflows. If energy prices push inflation expectations higher, the Fed’s tightening path could accelerate.

● Long-term, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick remains optimistic: despite a possible correction to $50,000 in the short term, he expects a rebound to $100,000 by year-end, with a long-term target of $500,000. The core logic is ongoing institutional capital inflows and Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative.

Amid macro uncertainties and increasing institutionalization, Bitcoin is undergoing a redefinition from “risk asset” to “digital gold.”

● Trump’s one tweet caused crude to crash, gold to frenzy, and Bitcoin to stand firm above $70,000. While the Strait of Hormuz remains watchful, and Tehran denies negotiations, smart money has already voted with their feet.

In this era of misinformation and rapid market shifts, AiCoin’s mission is simple: use data to cut through the fog, making every trade evidence-based. After all, in this market, the real winners are not those who guess Trump’s tweets correctly, but those who find certainty in data.